Wall Street Journal
(Washington Wire)
By Laura Meckler
October 29, 2014
Democrats
maintain a significant—but shrinking–advantage with the fast-growing
bloc of Latino voters, according to a new survey that may hold greater
significance for the 2016 elections than for next week’s midterm
contests.
The
survey by the Pew Research Center also found more than half of these
voters say a candidate’s position on immigration is not a deal-breaker
in determining
their vote, a hopeful sign for Republicans, many of whom do not support
the sort of overhaul that is broadly popular in the Hispanic community.
The
survey was conducted in September and early October, after President
Barack Obama announced he would put off executive action to stem
deportations
until after the elections, and after it was clear that the
GOP-controlled House would not act on immigration legislation.
The
survey found 54% said they would vote for a candidate who disagrees
with them on immigration policy if that person agreed with them on most
other
issues. The poll asked about five different issues, and found 73% of
Latinos saying immigration was extremely or very important. But the
ratings for education, jobs and the economy and health care were all
higher.
Another
worrisome sign for Democrats: Hispanics are no more motivated to vote
this year than they were in 2010, when the group turned out at much
lower
rates than non-Hispanic black and white voters.
Already,
Democrats have been worrying that Latino voters would not turn out next
Tuesday, in part due to frustration over inaction on immigration in
Washington.
The Pew survey found just over half of Latino voters said they are
absolutely certain they would vote in the midterm elections, the same as
2010. In 2010, just 31.2% of Latino eligible voters actually cast
ballots.
Even
if they voted in high numbers, their impact is likely to be limited.
Only a few of the most competitive races this year are in states with
significant
Latino populations—notably the Senate and gubernatorial races in
Colorado. Activists also point to Kansas, where 6% of eligible voters
are Latino, arguing they could make a difference in a close Senate race.
In
2016, by contrast, a number of traditional presidential battlegrounds
have large Latino populations, making their votes more significant to
the national
results. In 2012, 71% of Latinos voted to re-elect President Obama,
helping him overcome a deep deficit with white voters.
But
looking ahead, the poll holds cautionary numbers for Democrats. It
found 57% of Latino registered voters support or lean toward the
Democratic candidate
in their congressional district, vs. 28% for Republicans. That’s a
sizable edge, but down from the 65% support that Democrats had in 2010,
the last midterm election.
Similarly,
63% of Latinos said they identify or lean toward the Democratic Party,
down from 70% who said so in 2012. The portion that identifies or leans
toward the Republicans rose to 27% from 22%. And 50% now say that the
Democrats are the party that has more concern for Latinos, down from 61%
who said the same in 2012.
Those
opinions could change later this year if Mr. Obama goes through with
promises to use his executive authority to make changes to the
immigration
system. Most significantly, he is expected to offer a measure of
protection to possibly millions of people in the U.S. illegally who are
not priorities for deportation. Republicans are certain to decry the
move.
If all that happens, many activists in the Hispanic community predict that views of the Democratic Party will improve.
As
is, 55% of registered Latino voters—and 63% of all Latino adults—said
they disapprove of the way the Obama administration has handled
deportations.
The
Pew survey of 1,520 Hispanic adults, including 733 registered voters,
was conducted in English and Spanish Sept. 11 through Oct. 9. The margin
of
error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the full sample and
plus or minus 4.8 percentage points for registered voters.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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