About Me

My photo
Beverly Hills, California, United States
Eli Kantor is a labor, employment and immigration law attorney. He has been practicing labor, employment and immigration law for more than 36 years. He has been featured in articles about labor, employment and immigration law in the L.A. Times, Business Week.com and Daily Variety. He is a regular columnist for the Daily Journal. Telephone (310)274-8216; eli@elikantorlaw.com. For more information, visit beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com and and beverlyhillsemploymentlaw.com

Translate

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Democrats Edge Among Latinos Slips

Wall Street Journal (Washington Wire)
By Laura Meckler
October 29, 2014

Democrats maintain a significant—but shrinking–advantage with the fast-growing bloc of Latino voters, according to a new survey that may hold greater significance for the 2016 elections than for next week’s midterm contests.

The survey by the Pew Research Center also found more than half of these voters say a candidate’s position on immigration is not a deal-breaker in determining their vote, a hopeful sign for Republicans, many of whom do not support the sort of overhaul that is broadly popular in the Hispanic community.

The survey was conducted in September and early October, after President Barack Obama announced he would put off executive action to stem deportations until after the elections, and after it was clear that the GOP-controlled House would not act on immigration legislation.

The survey found 54% said they would vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on immigration policy if that person agreed with them on most other issues. The poll asked about five different issues, and found 73% of Latinos saying immigration was extremely or very important. But the ratings for education, jobs and the economy and health care were all higher.

Another worrisome sign for Democrats: Hispanics are no more motivated to vote this year than they were in 2010, when the group turned out at much lower rates than non-Hispanic black and white voters.

Already, Democrats have been worrying that Latino voters would not turn out next Tuesday, in part due to frustration over inaction on immigration in Washington. The Pew survey found just over half of Latino voters said they are absolutely certain they would vote in the midterm elections, the same as 2010. In 2010, just 31.2% of Latino eligible voters actually cast ballots.

Even if they voted in high numbers, their impact is likely to be limited. Only a few of the most competitive races this year are in states with significant Latino populations—notably the Senate and gubernatorial races in Colorado. Activists also point to Kansas, where 6% of eligible voters are Latino, arguing they could make a difference in a close Senate race.

In 2016, by contrast, a number of traditional presidential battlegrounds have large Latino populations, making their votes more significant to the national results. In 2012, 71% of Latinos voted to re-elect President Obama, helping him overcome a deep deficit with white voters.

But looking ahead, the poll holds cautionary numbers for Democrats. It found 57% of Latino registered voters support or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, vs. 28% for Republicans. That’s a sizable edge, but down from the 65% support that Democrats had in 2010, the last midterm election.

Similarly, 63% of Latinos said they identify or lean toward the Democratic Party, down from 70% who said so in 2012. The portion that identifies or leans toward the Republicans rose to 27% from 22%. And 50% now say that the Democrats are the party that has more concern for Latinos, down from 61% who said the same in 2012.

Those opinions could change later this year if Mr. Obama goes through with promises to use his executive authority to make changes to the immigration system. Most significantly, he is expected to offer a measure of protection to possibly millions of people in the U.S. illegally who are not priorities for deportation. Republicans are certain to decry the move.

If all that happens, many activists in the Hispanic community predict that views of the Democratic Party will improve.

As is, 55% of registered Latino voters—and 63% of all Latino adults—said they disapprove of the way the Obama administration has handled deportations.

The Pew survey of 1,520 Hispanic adults, including 733 registered voters, was conducted in English and Spanish Sept. 11 through Oct. 9. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 4.8 percentage points for registered voters.

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com

No comments: