ABC News
By Gary Langer
September 2, 2015
Negative
views of Hillary Clinton have jumped to nearly their highest on record
in ABC News/Washington Post polls, while Donald Trump’s personal
popularity has grown more
polarized along racial and ethnic lines.
Clinton’s
favorability has burbled back under water: 45 percent of Americans now
see her favorably, down 7 percentage points since midsummer, while 53
percent rate her
unfavorably, up 8. Her unfavorable score is a single point from its
highest in ABC/Post polls dating back 23 years; that came in April 2008,
in the midst of her last presidential campaign.
Trump
is much farther under water than Clinton, rated favorably by 37 percent
of Americans and unfavorably by 59 percent. That reflects a slight
4-point rise in favorability
since mid-July, entirely among whites, +6 points. Nonwhites see Trump
negatively by a vast 17-79 percent, unchanged among Hispanics and more
negative among blacks, by 16 points, since midsummer.
That
said, whites are the majority group –- 64 percent of the adult
population -– and they now divide evenly on Trump, 48-49 percent,
favorable-unfavorable. Clinton, by
contrast, is far more unpopular than Trump among whites, 34-65 percent.
So while racial and ethnic polarization is on the rise in views of
Trump, it remains even higher for Clinton.
Given
their support profiles -– Clinton’s more popular in groups that are
less likely to be registered -– the difference in her and Trump’s
popularity narrows among registered
voters. In this group Clinton’s favorable-unfavorable score is 43-56
percent (-13 points); Trump’s is 40-58 percent (-18). Negative views of
Clinton among registered voters are up by 10 points from July, while
Trump’s ratings in this group are essentially
unchanged.
Two others were tested in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates:
Jeb
Bush, even while generating far less controversy than Trump, is seen
almost as negatively, by 17 points overall, 38-55 percent. Bush’s
favorable rating is flat while
his unfavorable score is up 8 points since July, including 9-point
increases among Republicans and independents alike. He’s also lost
ground among conservatives, and is especially weak among strong
conservatives, a group in which Trump far surpasses Bush.
Joe
Biden lands an even score, 46-46 percent. He hasn’t announced
candidacy, a move that can sharpen divisions as candidates start staking
out positions on controversial
issues, catching flak and aiming some of their own.
Favorability
taps into a public figure’s basic overall image; a negative score
indicates thin ice. Clinton’s has been especially uneven, from as high
as 67 percent favorable
during her tenure as secretary of state to as low as 44 percent in
spring 2008 and 45 percent now.
Clinton
was somewhat better rated at roughly this time in the 2008 cycle: In
November 2007 she had a 50-46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating.
Barack Obama’s was 51-36
percent, John McCain’s 43-42 percent. All, then, were better off than
Clinton, Trump or Bush today. Among other factors –- including
increasing partisan and political polarization – this was before the
economic collapse of 2008 that pushed public frustration
into a deep trough from which it has yet to recover in full.
More Race/Ethnicity
Hispanics
divide about evenly on Bush, 43-46 percent, a much less negative rating
than Trump’s but still a 15-point increase in unfavorable views since
July. That said,
Bush’s negative rating is up among whites as well, by 9 points.
Clinton
is seen far more positively by Hispanics than are Trump, Bush or even
Biden; she’s also highly popular among blacks. But, after a period of
missteps chiefly focused
on her handling of e-mails as secretary of state, her unfavorable
rating is up by 14 points even among blacks. Her main trouble,
regardless, rests in the fact that she’s so broadly unpopular among
whites.
Party ID
Clinton
is particularly strong in her party, seen favorably by 80 percent of
Democrats. But her unfavorable rating has increased by 10 points among
independents since
midsummer, moving from an even split in July to a 20-point net negative
score in this group now. Only Bush does worse among independents.
Trump
and Bush alike continue to be seen more favorably than unfavorably
within their party, by 59-38 and 57-39 percent, respectively. But that’s
far behind Clinton’s
intramural score, as well as Biden’s (70 percent favorable among
Democrats). While negative views of Bush have gained among Republicans
and independents, Trump’s held steady within the party, and his +6 in
favorability among independents, while not statistically
significant, is directionally opposite from Bush.
Other Groups
Among
other groups, Bush’s unfavorable rating has increased by 14 points
among conservatives since midsummer, he’s at 44-50 percent
favorable-unfavorable in this group,
while Trump’s held more or less steady at 52-44 percent. The gap is
especially wide among strong conservatives -– a 39-57 percent score for
Bush, negative by 18 points, vs. 61-37 percent for Trump, positive by 24
points.
Additional
trouble for Clinton, meanwhile, is reflected in 11-point increases in
her unfavorable rating among women and liberals. And among Trump’s
challenges is a decidedly
poor rating among young adults; 70 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds see
Trump unfavorably, up 12 points since midsummer.
Strength of Sentiment
Strength
of sentiment is more negative than positive for all these figures.
While 21 percent of Americans see Clinton “strongly” favorably, more, 39
percent see her strongly
unfavorably, an 18-point gap. It’s an 11-point gap for Biden (15
percent strongly favorable, 26 percent strongly unfavorable) and 22
points for Bush (just 7 percent strongly favorable, 29 percent strongly
unfavorable).
But
the gap is biggest for Trump: Sixteen percent of Americans see him
strongly favorably while 43 percent see him strongly unfavorably, a
27-point margin for strongly
negative sentiment.
See additional data tables here.
Methodology
This
ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone
Aug. 26-30, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample
of 1,005 adults. Results
have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced
for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with
sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Media, Pa. See
details on the survey’s methodology here.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
No comments:
Post a Comment