AP
By Jesse Holland
September 28, 2015
In
a major shift in immigration patterns, Asians will surge past Hispanics
to become the largest group of immigrants heading to the United States
by 2065, according to
estimates in a new study.
An
increase in Asian and Hispanic immigration also will drive U.S.
population growth, with foreign-born residents expected to make up 18
percent of the country’s projected
441 million people in 50 years, the Pew Research Center said in a
report to be released Monday. This will be a record, higher than the
nearly 15 percent during the late 19th-century and early 20th-century
wave of immigration from Europe.
Today, immigrants make up 14 percent of the population, an increase from 5 percent in 1965.
The
tipping point is expected to come in 2055, when Asians will become the
largest immigrant group at 36 percent, compared with Hispanics at 34
percent. White immigrants
to the United States, 80 percent in 1965, will hover between 18 percent
and 20 percent with black immigrants in the 8 percent to 9 percent
range, the study said.
Currently,
47 percent of immigrants living in the United States are Hispanic, but
by 2065 that number will have dropped to 31 percent. Asians make up 26
percent of the
immigrant population but in 50 years that percentage is expected to
increase to 38 percent.
Pew researchers analyzed a combination of Census Bureau information and its own data to develop its projections.
Part
of the reason for the shift is that the fertility rate of women in
Latin America and especially Mexico has decreased, said Mark Hugo Lopez,
Pew’s director of Hispanic
research. In Mexico, Lopez said, women are having about two children,
when in the 1960s and 1970s, they were having about seven children.
“There
are relatively fewer people who would choose to migrate from Mexico, so
demographic changes in Mexico have led to a somewhat smaller pool of
potential migrants,”
he said. “At the same time, we’ve seen a growing number of immigrants —
particularly from China or India — who are coming for reasons such as
pursuing a college degree or coming here to work temporarily in the
high-tech sector.”
Despite the increase in Asian immigrants, Hispanics will still make up a larger number in the United States, Lopez said.
“Hispanic
population growth is coming from people born here in the United
States,” he said. “It is really U.S. births that are now the driver of
Hispanic population growth,
and that’s a recent change from what we saw in the ’80s and ’90s.”
By
2065, no racial or ethnic group will hold a majority in the United
States, with whites holding 46 percent of the population, Hispanics at
24 percent, Asians at 14 percent
and blacks at 13 percent. Currently, the country is 62 percent white,
18 percent Hispanic, 12 percent black and 6 percent Asian.
Pew
also asked Americans surveyed for one word to describe immigrants in
the United States today. Twelve percent said “illegal,” 5 percent said
“overpopulation,” 4 percent
said “legality (other than illegal),” and “jobs,” “deportation,”
“Americans” and “work ethic” were at 3 percent each. Forty-nine percent
offered general descriptions, and of those 12 percent were positive, 11
percent negative and 26 percent neutral, according
to the report.
Americans
also said immigrants are likely to make the country better, with 45
percent agreeing with that statement and 37 percent saying they make
things worse. Eighteen
percent said they don’t have much effect one way or the other.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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