New York Times (Op-Ed)
By Paul Krugman
March 4, 2016
So
Republicans are going to nominate a candidate who talks complete
nonsense on domestic policy; who believes that foreign policy can be
conducted via bullying and belligerence;
who cynically exploits racial and ethnic hatred for political gain.
But
that was always going to happen, however the primary season turned out.
The only news is that the candidate in question is probably going to be
Donald Trump. Establishment
Republicans denounce Mr. Trump as a fraud, which he is. But is he more
fraudulent than the establishment trying to stop him? Not really.
Actually,
when you look at the people making those denunciations, you have to
wonder: Can they really be that lacking in self-awareness?
Donald
Trump is a “con artist,” says Marco Rubio — who has promised to enact
giant tax cuts, undertake a huge military buildup and balance the budget
without any cuts
in benefits to Americans over 55.
“There
can be no evasion and no games,” thunders Paul Ryan, the speaker of the
House — whose much-hyped budgets are completely reliant on “mystery
meat,” that is, it claims
trillions of dollars in revenue can be collected by closing unspecified
tax loopholes and trillions more saved through unspecified spending
cuts.
Mr.
Ryan also declares that the “party of Lincoln” must “reject any group
or cause that is built on bigotry.” Has he ever heard of Nixon’s
“Southern strategy”; of Ronald
Reagan’s invocations of welfare queens and “strapping young bucks”
using food stamps; of Willie Horton?
Put
it this way: There’s a reason whites in the Deep South vote something
like 90 percent Republican, and it’s not their philosophical attachment
to libertarian principles.
Then
there’s foreign policy, where Mr. Trump is, if anything, more
reasonable — or more accurately, less unreasonable — than his rivals.
He’s fine with torture, but who
on that side of the aisle isn’t? He’s belligerent, but unlike Mr.
Rubio, he isn’t the favorite of the neoconservatives, a.k.a. the people
responsible for the Iraq debacle. He’s even said what everyone knows but
nobody on the right is supposed to admit, that
the Bush administration deliberately misled America into that
disastrous war.
Oh, and it’s Ted Cruz, not Mr. Trump, who seems eager to “carpet bomb” people, without appearing to know what that means.
In
fact, you have to wonder why, exactly, the Republican establishment is
really so horrified by Mr. Trump. Yes, he’s a con man, but they all are.
So why is this con job
different from any other?
The answer, I’d suggest, is that the establishment’s problem with Mr. Trump isn’t the con he brings; it’s the cons he disrupts.
First,
there’s the con Republicans usually manage to pull off in national
elections — the one where they pose as a serious, grown-up party
honestly trying to grapple with
America’s problems. The truth is that that party died a long time ago,
that these days it’s voodoo economics and neocon fantasies all the way
down. But the establishment wants to preserve the facade, which will be
hard if the nominee is someone who refuses
to play his part.
By
the way, I predict that even if Mr. Trump is the nominee, pundits and
others who claim to be thoughtful conservatives will stroke their chins
and declare, after a great
show of careful deliberation, that he’s the better choice given
Hillary’s character flaws, or something. And self-proclaimed centrists
will still find a way to claim that the sides are equally bad. But both
acts will look especially strained.
Equally
important, the Trump phenomenon threatens the con the G.O.P.
establishment has been playing on its own base. I’m talking about the
bait and switch in which white
voters are induced to hate big government by dog whistles about Those
People, but actual policies are all about rewarding the donor class.
What
Donald Trump has done is tell the base that it doesn’t have to accept
the whole package. He promises to make America white again — surely
everyone knows that’s the
real slogan, right? — while simultaneously promising to protect Social
Security and Medicare, and hinting at (though not actually proposing)
higher taxes on the rich. Outraged establishment Republicans splutter
that he’s not a real conservative, but neither,
it turns out, are many of their own voters.
Just
to be clear, I find the prospect of a Trump administration terrifying,
and so should you. But you should also be terrified by the prospect of a
President Rubio, sitting
in the White House with his circle of warmongers, or a President Cruz,
whom one suspects would love to bring back the Spanish Inquisition.
As
I see it, then, we should actually welcome Mr. Trump’s ascent. Yes,
he’s a con man, but he is also effectively acting as a whistle-blower on
other people’s cons. That
is, believe it or not, a step forward in these weird, troubled times.
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