Los Angeles Times
By Javier Panzar
March 20, 2016
If
Donald Trump or Ted Cruz is at the top of the ticket for the Republican
Party come November, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands) can take a bit of a
breather.
A
new analysis by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which handicaps
U.S. House races, shows seats held by Aguilar, Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
and Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Palm Desert) were upgraded
from "likely" to "solid" Democratic seats, thanks to their heavy Latino
population.
Cook defines
"likely" seats as those that are not currently competitive but that have the "potential to become engaged."
That
should be welcome news for Aguilar. He edged out his Republican
opponent in 2014 by just 51.7% to 48.3% despite outspending him and
benefiting from a Democratic advantage of 6 percentage
points among registered voters in the district.
"As
long as Trump or Cruz is the GOP nominee, this 52% Latino district is
not going to be voting for a Republican," writes Cook Report House
editor David Wasserman.
Trump
and Cruz could also affect the races for seats held by two Republicans
in the Central Valley, Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock and Rep. David
Valadao of Hanford, as well as freshman Rep.
Steve Knight in north Los Angeles County.
Those
districts still lean Republican, according to Cook's rankings, but
Trump and his polarizing comments on Mexican immigrants could cause
problems for the incumbents.
"The heavier the drag from the top of the ticket, the more expensive these types of seats will be to defend," Wasserman said.
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