National Journal
By
Josh Kraushaar
August 7, 2015
At
the inaugural GOP presidential debate, a swing-state governor with a
record of reforms and a message of economic mobility made his mark.
Entering the debate stage to
loud applause, the experienced GOP executive touted his brand of
compassionate conservatism. He disarmed skeptics of his free-wheeling
speaking style, coming prepared with crisp talking points advocating his
governing record.
That governor wasn't former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. It was current Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
"Kasich
is killing it. Hopeful. Uplifting. Optimistic. And he has an appeal to
those who think the GOP doesn't care," tweeted Ari Fleischer, former
spokesman for George
W. Bush.
If
there's one immediate consequence of the hyped first Republican
presidential debate, it's that millions of American viewers will be
learning about many GOP candidates
after knowing little about them beforehand. And one of those
lesser-known but highly-accomplished candidates is Kasich, the two-term
governor of the politically-pivotal battleground state.
Kasich
isn't going to win over many of the party's conservative grassroots.
But he's not Jon Huntsman, either. Through the course of the debate, he
made a compelling case
that he's as viable a contender for the establishment mantle as Bush,
who seemed unusually tentative and rusty after not being on a debate
stage for over a decade.
Throughout
the debate, Kasich essentially cribbed Bush's "right to rise" message
with his own flourishes. "Lift everybody, unite everybody, and build a
stronger United
States of America again. It will be, it can be done," Kasich said. He
reiterated his opposition to gay marriage, while outlining his personal
tolerance for those with differences. "We need to give everybody a
chance, treat everybody with respect, and let them
share in this great American dream that we have." After outlining the
state's record of economic growth, he concluded his closing statement by
saying: "People have hope again in Ohio!"
Kasich
sounded like a happy warrior on stage, a far cry from his reputation
for irritability. And he stayed mostly on message during his speaking
time, an impressive feat
for a politician who's known to go off on distracting tangents.
Bush
made no major blunders, but he looked out of his element at times. It
was clear that his free-wheeling style and aversion to the choreography
of politics was preventing
him from making a bigger mark. He stumbled (again) over a question
about his brother's decision to invade Iraq, clumsily pivoting to Iran
at the end. He wasn't as forceful on his key issue—immigration reform—as
he could have been, especially with Donald Trump
standing next to him on stage. "He seemed a little pale, a little
flat," Fox News moderator Chris Wallace said in the network's
post-debate coverage.
Bush
didn't look like the confident front-runner on stage Thursday night—and
he's been stagnant in recent polling despite his name identification.
If there's room for
an establishment alternative, Kasich is well-positioned to capitalize.
The Ohio governor's deliberate line of being the "son of a mailman"
offers a stark contrast to Bush's elite upbringing. And if style matters
as much as substance to Republicans—something
that Donald Trump's surge has demonstrated—Kasich's ability to connect
with voters emotionally trumps Bush's ability to do the same.
New
Hampshire is shaping up to be ground zero for that wide-open battle,
one where Kasich has been focusing his efforts and rising in the polls.
The Ohio governor's super
PAC has already spent about $3 million to raise his profile in the
state—and his spending has gotten some results. The RealClearPolitics
average of polling in the state finds Kasich surging to fourth place
this month, winning over 8 percent of the vote.
The
next month will provide a test of whether Kasich can translate that
potential into national support. With millions of viewers getting their
first exposure to him,
he took every advantage of the opportunity. Jeb Bush looked like an
awfully tenuous front-runner Thursday night.
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