Bloomberg
By Ken Goldstein
August 27, 2015
Without
a doubt, the summer’s biggest political story is Donald Trump’s surge
to the top of the 17-candidate-strong Republican presidential field.
And, when it comes
to assessing Trump, there is an odd alliance between quantitative geeks
and media pundits. Although both continuously write and talk about
Trump, the conventional wisdom is that Trump’s surge is akin to a sugar
high.
In
other words, when voters really start paying attention, the
fundamentals or the regularities that drive vote choice and elections
will re-assert themselves. As Amy
Walter put it, “summer is for dating, winter is for mating.” And while
voters may enjoy dating Trump over the summer, they eventually will want
to marry “a nice boy from a good family.”
In
a less folksy fashion, the crew at Five Thirty Eight give the Donald
very little chance of being the Republican nominee, with Nate Silver
pegging his chances at two
percent and Harry Enten coming in at an emphatic negative 10 percent.
Lynn Vavreck reminds us that there almost always is a splash for some
candidate, who ends up fading away as the primaries approach.
The evidence suggests that Trump will not just fade away.
In
very recent history, Rudy Giuliani led for much of the run-up to the
2008 Republican primaries and Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry
took turns at the top of
the Republican field in 2012.
I’m
a fundamentalist when it comes to elections and definitely a geek. It’s
August of 2015 and we do not want to over-react to or over analyze
summer lovin'. While Trump’s
25—30 percent share of GOP support is enough to propel him to a lead in
a 17-person field, he will need to build on that to compete when the
contest boils down to a two or three person race. And, Trump’s high
unfavorable ratings and the desire of Republicans
to actually win the White House in November of 2016 most likely create a
ceiling for him. In short, I would still place a wager on the field,
rather than Trump, to be the Republican nominee.
All
that said, there is a difference between Trump and the Cain, Gingrich,
Perry, and Giuliani boomlets of years past. One can wonder about how
well the polls represent
the likely GOP electorate, but Trump has across the board support from
virtually every sub-group that comprises Republican primary voters.
Trump also continues to attract immense amounts of media coverage and is
generating huge TV ratings. Furthermore, he
is driving the discussion in the race—shaping what his opponents say
and do on a daily basis. None of this was the case with previous
shooting stars.
Does
anyone think that immigration would have this high a profile in the
Republican primary if Trump was not running? Does anyone think that is a
good thing for Republican
general election prospects?
The
evidence suggests that Trump will not just fade away. He will need to
be engaged with the blocking and tackling of election campaigns, and how
that is done will have
an influence on the nomination fight and, ultimately, the general
election.
Put
another way, even if Trump is a summer fling, the nature of those
flings and how they end can matter. Even if the nomination ends up
following the road we expect to
an “establishment” candidate like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, the process
has an impact.
In
other words, summer dating can make a lasting impression if you tattoo
the name of your fling on your back (#trumpstamp). Staking out hardline
positions on immigration
that alienate important parts of the electorate, keeping Obama’s birth
certificate in the news, or tagging other potential nominees as being
“low energy” (Bush) and presiding over states that are a “disaster”
(Walker) are not things that Republican candidates
may want to be saddled with. Waking up to that next summer and fall
could be a rude awakening. And if the summer fling sticks around and
runs as a third-party candidate, it could spell disaster for the GOP.
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