Wall Street Journal
November 11, 2014
President Obama will set the tone for his final
years in office with his looming decision on an immigration executive
order. These columns supported reform long before Mr. Obama, and we
still do, but if he does act on his own he’s likely
to harm the immigration cause and his own legacy.
Liberal activists and Democrats are pressuring Mr.
Obama to broaden his controversial 2012 executive action, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which allows immigrants who were brought
to the U.S. illegally as children to stay
in the country and work. The details of his next edict are still
secret, but presumably he’d extend the same provisions of his 2012 order
to a larger swath of the undocumented population. Perhaps to millions
of adults.
The political case from a Democratic point of
view—the only kind Mr. Obama seems to understand—goes like this.
Republicans will never pass reform, so he has to act by himself to
accomplish something before he leaves office. His base will
be pleased, and he’ll divide Republicans. The anti-immigration right
may even blow a gasket and further alienate Asian- and
Hispanic-Americans between now and the 2016 election. What’s to lose?
The answer is plenty. On the merits, Mr. Obama’s
executive order can’t come close to fixing America’s broken immigration
laws. The most he can do is to legalize the immigration status of
several million people. This would let them remain
in the U.S., but it wouldn’t offer a green card or path to citizenship.
That requires Congress.
An executive order also can’t increase the number
of visas, which means it can’t reduce the future flow of illegal
immigrants by providing more legal pathways to enter the U.S. So no new
science-graduate visas for tech workers, no visas
for farm workers to end the labor shortage in agriculture, and no
guest-worker program to create a flexible labor market for other jobs in
a growing U.S. economy. Mr. Obama is offering amnesty without
addressing the root cause of border-crossing economic migration.
As for the politics, we think there’s a good chance
Republicans would pass immigration reform in some form in the next two
years. The leadership wants to do it, and a majority of the rank and
file privately want to vote for it to end the
debate. Most realize the growing importance of minority voters to the
GOP’s chances of winning the Presidency.
The reforms would have to pass Congress in
piecemeal fashion, rather than one giant bill like the Senate passed in
2013: a single bill each for border security, interior enforcement,
guest-worker program, high-tech visas, a path to citizenship,
and so on. But this makes sense because it’s easier to build House
majorities for narrower legislation, especially with voters today so
skeptical of Washington.
An executive order, by contrast, could empower the
GOP’s yahoo wing and make it harder for even these piecemeal bills to
pass. GOP leaders would feel obliged to pass legislation to block the
action, and the immigration battle royale would
sap much of the political capital Mr. Obama has left on Capitol Hill.
Mr. Obama could protect his executive order as long as he’s President,
but the next President could erase it with a stroke of his pen. Only a
reform passed by Congress and signed by a President
is politically durable.
Alas, Mr. Obama is likely to follow the same
partisan course he has pursued throughout his Presidency. White House
press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters on Friday that Mr. Obama
will proceed with an executive order unless the House
acts by December on the reform the Senate passed last year. The
President knows that’s a dead letter, which suggests he’s looking for a
confrontation.
If he does issue an executive order, we hope
Republicans don’t fall for his political trap. He and many Democrats
want Republicans to appear to be anti-immigrant. They want the GOP to
dance to the Steve King-Jeff Sessions blow-a-gasket
caucus.
The smart play is to stay cool and keep working on
the piecemeal reform that would make Mr. Obama’s executive order
superfluous. The GOP could offer legal status on terms that provide more
long-term economic security while also reducing
the flow of future illegals. Everyone knows the U.S. is never going to
deport 11 million men, women and children, so some form of legalization
is inevitable.
If Mr. Obama follows his familiar partisan script,
Republicans have a chance to stand up for the rule of law and America’s
economic well-being by passing immigration reform the constitutional
way.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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