New York Times (Upshot Blog)
By Tyler Cowen
November 8, 2014
Economic
debate since the financial crisis and Great Recession has often focused
on issues like monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, unemployment and
financial
regulation. Yes, these are all important, but in the future we will
need to pay much more attention to a relatively neglected field:
population economics. It’s an area that will prove central to
understanding whether nations will grow richer — or will stagnate
and lose global importance.
How
much has this field been neglected? Consider that perhaps the biggest
economic news of the year has gone largely unanalyzed. In an article
published
recently by the journal Science, Patrick Gerland, a United Nations
researcher, along with co-authors, developed a radical revision of
global population projections. They argued that, contrary to previous
estimates, global population was unlikely to peak anytime
soon.
To
the contrary, they see an 80 percent probability that the world’s
population, now 7.2 billion, will rise to as much as 12.3 billion by
2100. One reason,
they say, is that a decline of Africa’s fertility rate is proceeding at
a slower pace than had been expected.
Unfortunately,
regions with rapidly growing populations, like Africa and South Asia,
often have lower living standards. In our likely global future, these
regions will have more people than they can comfortably support, while
many countries in the West and in East Asia will have too few young
people for prosperous economies.
As
an economist, I see an obvious solution: Relatively underpopulated and
highly developed countries could profitably take in young Africans and
South
Asians — and both sides would gain. Yet it’s far from clear that all
nations that could benefit from this policy would entertain it, partly
because of persistent racial and cultural bias. There is also the
legitimate question of how quickly immigrants can
adjust to new environments, especially if they are arriving with weak
educational backgrounds as the job market demands ever-stronger skills.
Developed
countries that can absorb new immigrants at a modest cost should have
relatively bright futures. They will help enable a rebalancing of
population
that will help the entire planet. In contrast, developed countries with
relatively inflexible notions of national identity, and thus with
strict immigration policies, may shrink in population and lose
influence.
Of
course, immigration is only one potential remedy. If countries can
create flexibility in working conditions, and make living expenses
reasonable enough,
their families may wish to have more children.
If
you’re not convinced that a declining population is a problem, consider
Japan. In terms of real gross domestic product per hour worked, Japan
has continued
to have good performance, but it has a fundamental problem: The
working-age population has been declining since about 1997. And Japan’s
overall population has been growing older, so with fewer workers
supporting so many retirees, national savings will dwindle
and resources will be diverted from urgent tasks like revitalizing
companies and otherwise invigorating the economy. Japan has already gone
from being a miracle exporter to a country that runs steady trade
deficits. Perhaps there is simply no narrowly economic
recipe to keep its economy growing; Edward Hugh made this argument in
his recent ebook, “The A B E of Economics.”
Japan
now has two main options: encouraging more childbearing and learning
how to accept and absorb more immigrants. But it does not seem close to
managing
either task.
Japan
isn’t the only nation facing this quandary; it just happens to be
experiencing the problems first. Also heading toward population decline
are China
(with its heritage of a one-child-only policy) as well as South Korea
and parts of Mediterranean Europe. It’s hard to see in Italy, for
example, how a shrinking population will handle its debt burden — or, in
China, how a working couple will be able to support
four parents as well as its own offspring.
On
the positive side, a country facing a population decline may have an
easier time alleviating environmental woes. But dynamic, growing
countries are
more likely to pursue environmental innovation and tackle the problem.
Fortunately,
the United States has been on a path of at least moderate population
growth. But it also faces some major problems. For instance, there is
no guarantee that the nation’s relatively high fertility rate will
continue. Workplace policies that discourage child-rearing are certainly
no help. Ensuring a growing American population will probably require
immigration reform, which has not been a high
priority for Republicans, who gained full control of Congress in last
week’s elections. And while American leaders rarely talk openly about
it, they may have geopolitical reasons for not wanting this country to
be too much smaller, population-wise, than China.
That concern could require accelerating rather than just steady
population growth.
France,
Israel and Singapore are three countries where population issues are
being discussed quite frankly; all have explicit public policies to
encourage
more births. And more countries will probably go down this route.
Encouraging people to have more children, and generally bidding for
human talent, may characterize the economic policies of the future, just
as cities and states today bid for football stadiums
and factories.
We
are seeing partial evidence of a turnaround toward rising birthrates in
some parts of the world. Britain, for instance, has experienced a
modest fertility
rebound, and not just among recent immigrants. These are underreported
and understudied developments.
Many
economists are uncomfortable with population issues, perhaps because
they aren’t covered in depth in the standard graduate curriculum, or
because
they touch on topics that may be culturally controversial or even
politically incorrect. That’s unfortunate. In the future, population
economics — and associated social issues — are likely to be at front and
center of our most important policy concerns.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
No comments:
Post a Comment