Colorado’s Democratic Drift Seems to Stall

Wall Street Journal

By Beth Reinhard and  Dan Frosch

November 2, 2014

Colorado’s Democratic Drift Seems to Stall 

AURORA, Colo.—With its pockets of immigrants and young families, this growing city outside Denver symbolizes the demographic winds that seemed to be pushing Colorado and similar states into the Democratic fold.

 

That drift this year appears more tenuous, making Colorado a test case of voter sentiment in an important swing state. Recent fights over gun control, same-sex unions, immigration, marijuana, fracking and the death penalty have left some voters exhausted—and more skeptical of the Democrats who lead the state.

 

The tumult here in recent years helps explain why the state appears to be veering back to the political middle at a time when President Barack Obama ’s unpopularity also weighs on his party.

 

Results in two big statewide races Tuesday could serve as a warning for Democrats in other states that seem to be moving from red to blue in presidential elections.

 

Polls show Democratic Sen. Mark Udall trailing Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in a race that could help flip the Senate to the GOP. And Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who won in 2010 despite a GOP wave in most other states, is running neck and neck with Republican Bob Beauprez.

 

A heated race for Senate between Sen. Mark Udall and Rep. Cory Gardner is a test case for whether Democrats or Republicans have what it takes to win the 2016 presidential race. The WSJ’s Sara Murray reports from the Centennial State.

“There is sort of a political exhaustion here, and it is hurting Democrats,” said Floyd Ciruli, a veteran nonpartisan pollster in Denver. “There is this yearning for the middle, but Democratic candidates have wound up not in the middle.”

 

On top of that, casino gambling and the labeling of genetically modified foods are also on the state ballot, as is a “personhood” proposal that would outlaw most abortions and some types of birth control—for the third time since 2008.

 

Mr. Udall and his Democratic allies have spent millions of dollars on TV ads battering Mr. Gardner for backing personhood. Mr. Gardner says he no longer supports personhood, though he remains listed as co-sponsor of a federal bill that critics say would have the same impact.

 

All the commotion has left Felicia Mullison, a 50-year-old independent voter, more wary than ever of both parties—and unsure of whom to vote for this year.

 

“It’s been crazy. There’s been so much noise,” said Ms. Mullison, a marketing consultant who was working one afternoon out of a coffee shop just south of Aurora. “Everyone else will have to deal with what we’re dealing with eventually, but I don’t necessarily like that we’re the first.”

 

The Senate and gubernatorial re-election battles—among the most competitive and expensive in the country—are playing out in a state that is growing younger, less rural and more diverse, all forces thought to play to the Democrats’ strengths.

 

The Denver metropolitan area was the country’s top destination for people aged 25 to 34 moving between 2008 and 2010, according to an analysis by demographer William Frey. Rural counties that lean GOP have lost residents, while counties along the populous Front Range have grown, state data shows. At the same time, the Hispanic population rose nearly 25% since 2005.

 

Democrats have controlled both chambers of the legislature and the governor’s mansion for eight of the past 10 years. Still, the electorate is roughly divided into thirds, with slightly more registered Republicans than Democrats, while even more choose neither party. The recent political turmoil appears to have left those in the middle frustrated with state leaders.

 

Voters approved the recreational sale of marijuana in 2012, but other controversial policy changes in recent years were spawned by the Democratic-led legislature: tuition discounts for students in the country illegally, driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, and same-sex civil unions. The mass shooting at an Aurora movie theater in 2012 led to laws mandating background checks for gun purchases and limits on magazine clips.

 

Morgan Carroll, the state Senate Democratic president and a longtime Aurora resident, has been knocking on doors for weeks hoping to protect her chamber’s one-seat Democratic majority. Bipartisan legislation to strengthen the social safety net and create jobs has been eclipsed by the controversies over guns and the drilling technique known as fracking, she said. “It’s such a toxic, negative environment, and the effect may be that people check out, and that could hurt Democrats more,” she said.

 

Aurora is a blend of immigrant enclaves where family-owned restaurants offer ethnic fare ranging from papusas to pho. But even here, in the heart of a redrawn congressional district viewed as a likely Democratic pickup, Republican Rep. Mike Coffman has run a competitive re-election campaign.

 

On a recent Sunday, the Mosaic Church of Aurora held a picnic where the Mexican, Korean and white pastors chatted while balancing plates of rice balls and macaroni salad. Sitting in a folding chair, Deb Shaw talked about one of the biggest problems for Democrats going into Tuesday’s vote: President Barack Obama’s approval rating has fallen to 40% in the state where he claimed the nomination in 2008. Ms. Shaw was there at Invesco Field that day, and wept over the promise of racial progress and change. Six years later, she said she is disappointed in Mr. Obama’s “wussy” leadership and unenthused by the Democrats at the top of the state ticket.

 

“I think Udall has become too removed,” she said, despite the senator’s efforts to distance himself from Mr. Obama and Washington.

 

Some Republicans cautioned against reading too much into whatever happens Tuesday.

 

“At best, it’s a purple state,” said Colorado-based GOP strategist Rich Beeson, who served as 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney ’s political director. “No one is going to say our problem with Hispanics is solved if Cory Gardner wins. The turnout in the midterm isn’t going to be anywhere near what presidential turnout is going to be.”

 

One longtime bellwether is Jefferson County, a sprawling patchwork of suburbs that stretches from Denver’s edge to the foothills of the Rockies. Once viewed as a right-leaning, middle class counter to neighboring Denver’s progressive streak, the county has grown more Hispanic and liberal as younger voters have trickled into older communities like Edgewater and Arvada.

 

Still, unaffiliated voters outnumber Democrats and Republicans, and often seesaw come election time.

 

Enno Fritz, 62, supported Mr. Udall and Mr. Hickenlooper in the past after being drawn to their centrism. But now he is leaning toward the GOP.

 

Mr. Fritz, who imports coffee machines for restaurants, said while he appreciated how Mr. Hickenlooper sought to forge compromises on oil and gas development, he didn’t like his handling of the gun bills. Mr. Udall, he said, has talked too much about Mr. Gardner’s opposition to abortion and not enough about terrorism and the deficit.

 

“I was planning to vote for Udall, but I changed my mind because he’s only talking about one thing. He’s not talked about anything he has done for the last four years,” Mr. Fritz said.

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