The Atlantic
By Priscilla Alvarez
March 31, 2016
A
new survey released on Tuesday by the Public Religion Research Institute
found younger Republicans are more likely to see immigrants as a boon
to the United States than Republicans older
than 30. In fact, among those 65 and older, only 22 percent share the
belief that “immigrants strengthen American society” compared with 51
percent of Republicans ages 18 to 29. The generational divide is not
only evident in attitudes about how immigrants
fit into American society, but also on immigration reform itself—all of
which might provide a glimpse into the future of the Republican Party.
Immigration
has been a hot-button issue this election cycle. Donald Trump
notoriously made it a central pillar of his presidential platform,
declaring that he’d build a wall (to be paid for
by Mexico) and deport the roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants in
the United States. His hard-line stance on immigration worked. It
attracted notable congressional endorsements, like those from Senator
Jeff Sessions and Representative Duncan Hunter,
and subsequently forced his rivals to take hard-right positions on the
issue as well. Take Ted Cruz: He toughened his position on
immigration—going from supporting a path to citizenship for undocumented
immigrants to “leading the fight against amnesty”—and
said that he too would deport undocumented immigrants. And it all
appears to be paying off in votes.
In
general, the party shares a negative view of immigration, according to
the survey’s findings, which were gathered from 42,586 telephone
interviews between April 2015 and January 2016.
Among Republicans, 53 percent said that immigrants “constitute a threat
to traditional American customs and values,” according to the survey.
But when broken down, a contrast between conservative, moderate, and
liberal Republicans emerges. Among conservative
Republicans, for example, 58 percent have an unfavorable view of
immigrants, but only 45 percent of moderate Republicans and 41 percent
of liberal Republicans agree.
On
immigration reform, the age divide resurfaces. The numbers have stayed
fairly stable throughout 2015 when it comes to what Republicans think
should be done about illegal immigration—whether
immigrants should be allowed to become citizens after meeting certain
requirements, should be identified and deported, or should be allowed to
become permanent legal residents. A majority of younger Republicans
“support providing immigrants currently living
in the country illegally a path to citizenship,” compared with 47
percent of GOP seniors. This is to say, the hard-line stance on
immigration adopted by candidates in pursuit of the White House may not
resonate with the next generation of the GOP, which will
soon make up a bigger fraction of the Republican electorate.
It’s
unclear how this affects the 2016 race, if at all. While the survey
didn’t mention candidates, its findings coincide with the trends seen
thus far in the presidential primary. Trump
and Cruz have swept several states, far outpacing their rivals (many of
whom have since exited the race). In reviewing the electorate in some
of those states, age was a key factor. As shown on Super Tuesday, for
example, voters 65 and older helped Trump emerge
as the victor in seven of the 11 states. And in Massachusetts, a state
with a largely white electorate, he raked around 52 percent of the vote
from age groups 45 to 64 and 65 and older.
In
addition to age, the survey also sheds some light on the
characteristics of voters who are attracted to the immigration policies
put forward by Trump and Cruz. White evangelical Protestants
are most likely to share the view that immigrants be deported. Also in
that category: voters who are older, white, have a high-school degree or
less, and fall under the conservative-Republican rubric. It’s the voter
bloc that Trump and Cruz have courted and
successfully attained.
To
be sure, there’s no indication that these voters will shift their views
in this election cycle, but it does signal a change for the Republican
Party as younger voters more tolerant of
immigration get older. Even among young white evangelical Protestants,
55 percent said, “Newcomers from other countries strengthen American
society,” drawing a contrast from the majority of senior white
evangelicals.
Taken
altogether, what does this mean for the party moving forward? Only time
can tell, but it could mean the voter bloc supporting Trump and Cruz
today will be gone tomorrow.
The
surge in Central American migrant children and teens crossing Mexico’s
northern border peaked in summer 2014, reigniting a contentious debate
around immigration policy in the U.S. It
was ultimately met with President Barack Obama’s request for $400
million in contingency funds to accommodate unaccompanied minors on top
of $950 million that had already been allocated to deal with the issue.
If
the intent was to simply stop migrants from reaching America, it paid
off: An increased number of Central American migrant children are now
being apprehended and detained in Mexico, the
new report says. At the same time, the number of unaccompanied Central
American minors fleeing violence has never been higher and reports of
poor conditions in Mexican detention are raising concerns.
Between
2014 and 2015, apprehensions of unaccompanied Central American children
in Mexico rose by 70 percent as such U.S. detentions dropped 22
percent. The correlation implies that Mexico
is succeeding in heading off children before they can reach the
southern U.S. border.
Underage
migrants in U.S. custody haven’t fared well over time, with some having
alleged abuses, including insults from guards, sexual assaults, and
having to drink toilet water.
In
Mexico, however, Bochenek said that the worst part of detention for
most child and teen migrants is the simple fact that they’re held like
prisoners.
“There
are problems with the length of time they are there, and the fact that
they’re there in the first place,” he explained. “…A lot of kids have
family in Mexico and can be released to
family, but they aren’t.”
Human Rights Watch found that in Mexico “wide discrepancies” exist between the law and how it’s enacted.
For
example, although Mexican law says migrant children should be quickly
transferred to the custody of Mexico’s national child protection agency
and detained only in exceptional circumstances,
the majority of kids are locked up in prison-like conditions anyway,
then subsequently deported.
“Children
who may have claims for refugee recognition confront multiple obstacles
in applying for refugee recognition from the moment they are taken into
custody by immigration agents,” the
report reads.
Agents
fail to inform two-thirds of migrant children of their right to seek
refugee recognition in Mexico, and government authorities don’t screen
children to see whether or not they have
credible refugee claims, according to the report. Lastly, no legal help
or assistance is offered to refugee children who do apply for refugee
status, a problem that also plays out for migrant kids in the United
States, where a senior immigration judge recently
ruled that three- and four-year-olds can represent themselves in court.
At
least 27,000 unaccompanied minors entered Mexico over the first ten
months of 2015, the Mexican government reported. Human Rights Watch said
that's likely a significant underestimate.
That’s
because, around the same time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data
shows the apprehensions of 28,000 unaccompanied child migrants from
Central America along the U.S. southern border
between October 2014 and September 2015.
The
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that up to half
Central American kids entering Mexico have credible claims for asylum,
but the new report says Mexico’s emphasis
has remained on immigration enforcement.
That focus on apprehension and deportation has no corresponding regard for children’s protection needs, Bochenek said.
The United States has encouraged Mexico’s crackdown with funding and equipment including scanners and vehicles.
The
Washington Post reported in December that U.S. officials “plan to spend
about $150 million on two major programs, including a biometric system
for Mexico to keep track of the migrants
it detains and a series of cellphone towers along the rural [southern]
border to help government agencies communicate.”
In
July 2014, U.S. Special Counsel to the Secretary of State Tom Shannon
told the Senate Appropriations Committee that because Mexico was
cooperative in starting a new initiative, Programa
Frontera Sur, the State Department offered to “match this level of
cooperation” with $86 million in funding “to provide support to Mexico’s
southern border initiative.”
By
September 2014, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson had
released a statement applauding how U.S. agencies “responded
aggressively to the situation,” saying the U.S was “pleased
that the Mexican government has itself taken a number of important
steps to interdict the flow of illegal migrants.”
The
investment to slow the tide of migration seems to have paid off looking
at the numbers, but it's left many young people in a precarious
situation.
For
teens like Gabriel R., 15, migration wasn’t as much a choice as a
necessity. (Human Rights Watch withheld the teen’s last name to ensure
confidentiality.)
After gang members approached him at school in Cortés, Honduras, Gabriel was told to join the gang or face the consequences.
“They gave me three days,” he told HRW. “If I didn’t join them, they’d kill me.”
Within the three days, he’d set off, alone, in an attempt to cross through Mexico. He ended up in detention in northern Mexico.
Out
of the 60 immigration detention centers in Mexico, the majority of kids
travelling alone end up in two large southern detention centers: Siglo
XXI in Tapachula, Chiapas and Acayucán in
the state of Veracruz. Mexican press reports have previously decried
“inhumane” conditions in Siglo XXI.
A
Mexican law mandates protection—like housing in shelters run by the
national child protection agency and professional screening—upon first
encounter by child protection officers. Yet, data
reviewed by Human Rights Watch revealed that just one percent of
underage migrant youth had been recognized as refugees or received such
protections in Mexico.
"Obviously
if they reach the US, the standard obligation under international
refugee laws exists to give them a fair hearing, and to make sure
they’re not returning to a place where they
will be tortured or that their life would be at risk,” Bochenek said.
“Many would qualify for asylum in the U.S.”
Uriel
Gonzalez, director of Casa YMCA, Tijuana's only shelter for
unaccompanied migrant children between the ages of 13 and 18, interacts
with teens and pre-teens daily.
He’s
recently seen children from El Salvador and Honduras pass through the
shelter on the way to ask for asylum in the U.S. “In some cases, we were
able to identify pro-bono immigration lawyers
to take the cases,” Gonzalez said.
Still,
even for those underage migrants who beat the odds and find
representation, their chances of actually winning asylum cases are slim.
The problem will likely get worse before improving.
Violent
crime continues to spike in Central America. El Salvador recently
unseated Honduras as the world’s most murderous country: in 2015, the
murder rate there leapt 70 percent.
“It
probably shouldn’t be surprising that kids are travelling alone at
younger and younger ages. Even though I knew that intellectually, it was
still shocking to talk to a ten or an 11-year-old
travelling on their own,” Bochenek said, noting that the number of
girls migrating alone is growing, currently comprising a quarter of
Central American child migrant. “Those two things are indicators of how
difficult things are in the northern triangle."
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com