Politico
By Eli Stokols
June 2, 2015
While
the outcome of Rand Paul’s attempt to block renewal of PATRIOT Act
remains unsettled, his presidential campaign notched a victory of sorts
early Tuesday: the Nevada
Legislature failed to pass a bill changing the state’s 2016 GOP caucus
to a primary election.
The
failure of the measure — which was backed by the Republican National
Committee and the state’s GOP establishment — represents a big win for
Paul, who stands to benefit
from maintaining the status quo in the first-in-the-West state. For the
past two presidential election cycles, grass-roots factions aligned
with his father, former Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), have flexed outsized
muscle in the low turnout caucus contests and
Rand Paul is expected to inherit a good portion of that support.
Had
the GOP-controlled Assembly been able to pass the bill, a primary
election likely would have expanded turnout, diluting the influence of
grass-roots activists and
providing a wider opening for Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush in a critical
early state — one of the first four GOP contests of 2016.
But,
ultimately, as the Assembly cleared its calendar of all but the primary
election bill and then broke for celebratory cake with precious hours
remaining to pass it,
it became clear that the sponsors just couldn’t find the votes.
“There
are folks in many of the presidential camps who have believed that this
is rigged for Rand Paul, based on what’s happened,” said a Nevada
operative working for
one of the presidential hopefuls. “If it were a primary, everyone would
play here. But if it’s going to stay a caucus, there are probably only
four or five [candidates] who do.”
Bush,
Rubio, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Ted Cruz are still likely
to compete for Nevada’s 34 delegates but, with the caucus still in
place, Paul will occupy
the commanding heights.
Only
12 percent of Nevada Republicans took part in the 2008 caucuses, and
turnout fell to an anemic 7 percent in 2012. In both cycles, liberty
movement activists overwhelmed
the state convention on behalf of Ron Paul and delivered him more
delegates at the GOP convention than Mitt Romney, who actually won the
caucuses in both of those years.
“The
Nevada Republican Party just hasn’t been able to get organized enough
to get everyone out to vote; and as a result, with these factions able
to fill the void, a lot
of those who have voted felt the will of the public has been ignored,”
said David McKeon, the Clark County GOP chairman who supported the
primary election as a means to regaining some control over the
quarrelsome factions that have crippled the state party
in recent years. “This would have provided equal opportunity for all of
the candidates.”
Many
Republicans who were advocating a switch to a primary election believed
that one more dismal caucus will cost Nevada its slot as one of the
first four states in the
2020 nomination process.
Changing
the late February election from a caucus to a primary would have
benefited Rubio, the son of a casino worker who spent six years of his
childhood in Las Vegas
and whose immigration story is likely to resonate in Nevada. But it
also could have been consequential for Bush, who isn’t well-positioned
to win in two of the three early voting states — Iowa and South Carolina
— where social conservatives dominate.
Several
campaigns, aware the bill was in the pipeline, had reason to view
Nevada as an opportunity to notch an early, momentum-generating win, as
evidenced by a spate
of staffing moves over the last several months.
After
hiring Ryan Erwin, Rep. Joe Heck’s top adviser, to run his Nevada
campaign in April, Bush hit the ground there last month, holding a town
hall in Reno and speaking
at a Lincoln Day Dinner in Las Vegas. Rubio, who hired Mike Slanker,
GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval’s top strategist, to lead his campaign in
Nevada, held his first event in Las Vegas last weekend. Cruz hired
consultant Robert Uithoven last week to serve as his Nevada
state director.
Now, those candidates will have to rethink how much of their resources to devote to Nevada.
“It’s
great for us any time these candidates are out here, working for our
vote,” McKeon said. “It’s great to be able to see them in person. I
don’t know how if they’ll
be here quite as often if it’s still a caucus.”
As
the final hours of the legislative session ticked away Monday,
supporters of the bill worked their colleagues on both sides of the
aisle. With some Republicans thought
to be closer to Paul opposed to the primary election proposal, sponsors
looked to sway some Democrats, arguing that another dysfunctional cycle
for the GOP could cost both parties their “first four” spot on the
primary calendar.
Gov.
Brian Sandoval, a Republican who has indicated he’d sign the measure,
could still call a special legislative session to reintroduce the bill,
but that seems unlikely
after an aide told reporters Monday night that there was no unresolved
issue that would necessitate such a move.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
No comments:
Post a Comment