Bloomberg
By John McCormick
June 2, 2015
As
they campaign through Iowa in the months leading up to the nation's
first nominating contest, many presidential hopefuls are likely to talk
about issues that are deeply
important to the state's social conservatives, such as abortion and
same-sex marriage.
While
those subjects are indeed significant to core groups, the latest
Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows that likely
Republican and Democratic caucus
participants want the candidates to discuss a far more diverse array of
issues, even if they don't agree on what those issues should be.
“The issues Iowans care about are the leading national issues.”
Likely
Republican caucus-goers are most likely to say they want candidates to
discuss the budget deficit (94 percent), national defense (93 percent),
taxes (91 percent),
and battling terrorist groups (90 percent).
Presented
with the same list of 20 issues, the top picks for Democrats are energy
(92 percent), income inequality (90 percent), and the nation's
infrastructure (88 percent).
There
was some common ground: At 86 percent, Republicans and Democrats were
equally likely to select job creation as something they want to hear
candidates discuss extensively.
“The
issues Iowans care about are the leading national issues,” said J. Ann
Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which
conducted the poll May 25-29.
The
survey, coming about eight months before the Iowa caucuses, included
402 likely Republican caucus-goers and 437 likely Democratic caucus
participants. On the full
sample, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points
for Republicans and 4.7 percentage points for Democrats.
“For
Republicans, fiscal issues like the budget, taxes, and job creation are
key, as are security issues like defense and protecting against
terrorists,” Selzer said.
“For Democrats, it is economic issues, like income inequality,
addressing infrastructure, and job creation.”
Just
38 percent of likely Republican caucus participants want candidates to
spend a lot of time talking about same-sex marriage, while 48 percent
say that for abortion.
For Democrats, the number on same-sex marriage, which is legal in Iowa,
is 45 percent; on abortion, it is 29 percent.
“I
don't think they are really presidential issues or issues that a
president is going to have to deal with,” said Republican poll
participant Tony Schubert, 61, a mortgage
banker from Cedar Rapids who wants to see candidates give more
attention to eliminating regulations, lowering taxes, fixing Social
Security, and reducing the clout of big business. “To make a big debate
about social issues is missing the point of what the
country's real problems are.”
The
likely caucus-goers most interested in abortion are Republicans who
consider themselves very conservative and those who call themselves
born-again Christians. Roughly
two-thirds of both groups want candidates to spend a lot of time on the
subject.
Born-again
or evangelical Christians represented 41 percent of likely Republican
caucus participants in the poll, while those who consider themselves
very conservative
accounted for 35 percent. There is overlap between those two groups.
For
Republican candidates, ignoring climate change is a safe bet. Just 18
percent of likely GOP caucus participants want candidates to spend a lot
of time on that subject.
Democrats, at 81 percent, have an almost exactly opposite view.
A
similar pattern sets up for income inequality, with just 36 percent of
Republicans saying it should be a major topic for discussion, compared
to 90 percent for Democrats.
While
their opinions on the issue may vary, members of both parties agreed
that they want to hear the candidates talk about immigration, 85 percent
for Republicans and
82 percent for Democrats.
Other
topics where at least half of Republicans said they want more
conversation: international trade (81 percent), the nation's
infrastructure (78 percent), energy (76
percent), breaking gridlock in Washington (68 percent), the Iraq war
(63 percent), guns (57 percent), criminal justice reform (56 percent),
and the cost of college (50 percent).
Democrats
in the poll were interested in a much broader portfolio. Other topics
where more than half want lots of discussion include: the cost of
college (82 percent),
taxes (78 percent), international trade (77 percent), national defense
(76 percent), criminal justice reform (76 percent), breaking gridlock in
Washington (75 percent), the budget deficit (74 percent), battling
terrorist groups (71 percent), race relations
(71 percent), guns (56 percent), and the Iraq war (54 percent).
By
contrast, Democrats don't want to hear candidates talking about their
religious beliefs, with just 14 percent of likely caucus-goers saying
they wanted to hear a lot
about them.
The
poll also measured several policy positions on the Republican side to
see if likely caucus-goers thought they were they were about right or go
too far. The responses
revealed some big differences within the Republican Party between
moderates and conservatives.
Underscoring
the skepticism that many Iowa Republicans feel toward former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush, 74 percent of likely caucus participants agreed with
this statement:
“The Common Core puts too much control of education in the hands of the
federal government; it should be rejected.” Bush is a supporter of
national educational standards.
There also was division on two environmental statements tested among likely Republican caucus participants.
“The
Environmental Protection Agency infringes on the rights of landowners,
therefore it should be shut down” is viewed as going too far by 51
percent, while 44 percent
say it's about right. Among those who consider themselves very
conservative, 61 percent agreed with the statement, compared to 31
percent of moderates.
And
there was a nearly even split among all Republicans on whether
“subsidies are a waste of government money, including past subsidies for
ethanol and wind energy,” with
46 percent saying that goes too far and 45 percent saying that's about
right. That helps explain why Republican presidential candidates
visiting the state often struggle to hit the right tone between
supporting corn-based ethanol and the limited-government
views many of them hold.
Republicans
were also somewhat divided on the question of whether “protecting
Americans from terrorism is more important than protecting Americans'
privacy.” A near majority,
49 percent, said the statement is about right, while 42 percent say
that goes too far.
On
immigration, 69 percent agreed with the statement “The border with
Mexico must be 100 percent secure before any legislation on immigration
reform can be considered.”
Yet there's significant division within the party: 83 percent of those
who consider themselves very conservative agreed with the statement,
compared to just over half of self-described moderates.
Slimmer majorities agreed with a series of statements involving marriage and religious freedom.
“Clergy
should be free to take political positions from the pulpit without
risking the tax-exempt status of the church” is viewed as about right by
61 percent, while 60
percent agreed with the statement “Marriage should be only between one
man and one woman, therefore marriage equality laws should be struck
down.”
“Religious
freedom is so important, it takes precedence over any law that is seen
as interfering with it” is viewed by 57 percent as about right.
“Life begins at conception, therefore fetuses have all the same rights as persons” is viewed as about right by 74 percent.
There's
also strong support, 73 percent, among likely Republican caucus
participants for this statement: “The U.S. must have the indisputably
strongest military, therefore
the Pentagon budget should be increased.”
Nearly
eight out of 10 likely Republican caucus participants said the
statement “Obamacare should be repealed” is about right, helping explain
why such lines from Republican
candidates on the campaign trail almost always generate applause.
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