New York Times
By Michael Barbaro
March 21, 2015
The
political apparatus surrounding former Gov. Jeb Bush, determined to
avoid embarrassment in a state that has vexed his party and family in
national elections, is plotting
a vast operation aimed at turning Florida into a bulwark for his
presidential campaign, according to dozens of interviews.
The
plan, code-named “Homeland Security,” seeks to try to neutralize two
potentially grave but homegrown threats to Mr. Bush’s long-anticipated
run for president: the
likely challenge from a charismatic young Republican senator from
Miami, Marco Rubio, who is expected to seek the Republican nomination
himself, and a demographic drift within Florida that could doom Mr. Bush
there in a fall campaign against a Democrat.
The
Bush effort in Florida, where Barack Obama prevailed in the last two
elections, will pour enormous resources and energy over the next year
into a state that many thought
Mr. Bush, its governor from 1999 to 2007, would be able to count on as a
bedrock of support.
“Without
Florida,” said Bob Martinez, a longtime Bush friend and a former
governor of Florida himself, “he knows it would be hard to make the
numbers work.”
In
what advisers said could amount to a $50 million undertaking by
Election Day, Mr. Bush and his team are rushing to lock up Florida’s
best-known political operatives,
elected officials and campaign donors — offering them contracts, face
time and blandishments, according to those who know of the tactics.
Their
forceful message to the state’s top campaign minds: “Keep your
schedules clear,” said Dan Dawson, a Republican operative in
Jacksonville who specializes in digital
strategy and may work with Mr. Bush.
Mr.
Bush’s muscular outreach in Florida — where actions like a tribute to
an aide at his deathbed and staff reunions at Disney World have won the
admiration of Republican
leaders — is relying on a highly personal touch and the tug of loyalty
to a man who ushered in what has been a 17-year stretch of Republican
state government.
In
many ways, friends and advisers said, Mr. Bush has been running for
president in Florida since the day he left the Statehouse, cultivating a
network of former aides
and allies through gestures big and small, like birthday emails.
“Jeb
has taken the trouble to nurture these relationships,” said John
McKager Stipanovich, a prominent Republican lobbyist in Tallahassee who
receives a personal message
from Mr. Bush every Nov. 26. “They don’t even need to reach out in
Florida. They never let go.”
With
its geographical vastness and tropical flamboyance, colliding
nationalities and reputation for electoral mishap, Florida offers the
possibility of intrigue in every
presidential election. But in 2016, its primary may loom as the most
bruising and intimate in the country. Florida is now home to four likely
Republican presidential candidates of varying stature and allure: Mr.
Bush (who lives in Coral Gables); Mr. Rubio
(West Miami); Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon and author (West Palm Beach);
and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas (Santa Rosa Beach).
For
Mr. Bush, a native of Texas who made Florida his adopted home in the
1980s, no political terrain is held more dearly — or would be more
mortifying to lose to a fellow
Republican. But the timing and structure of the state’s primary could
make it a sanctuary on the political calendar.
The
state last week set a winner-take-all primary on March 15, 2016, the
earliest date possible under Republican rules. That means that, after
early contests in smaller
states where he may struggle and a round of primaries in which
delegates will be allocated proportionally, the fight for Florida’s 99
delegates could give Mr. Bush a chance to clinch the nomination, pull
away from the pack or recover from a stumble.
In
a general election, Mr. Bush would contend with the painful lessons of
his family’s previous campaigns in the state. His father, President
George Bush, barely clung
to Florida in 1992 as the nation’s voters turned to a young Democrat,
Bill Clinton. Eight years later, his brother George W. Bush was forced
into a bitter recount, and then a searing Supreme Court battle, over the
outcome in Florida — a campaign that Jeb Bush
helped oversee as governor.
Mr.
Bush has since devoted himself to fortifying the Republican Party
across the state, but he has encountered a daunting roadblock: a
changing electorate. Even as Republicans
control every level of state government, they cannot control the
increasing Democratic tinge of important groups of voters, including
younger Cuban-Americans and the tens of thousands of people of Puerto
Rican descent who have flocked to Orlando and other
parts of central Florida in recent years.
Mr.
Bush’s next steps are clear, advisers said. He must prevent Mr. Rubio
from building a credible operation in the state; make the case that as a
Spanish speaker with
a Mexican-born wife, he can overcome demographics that might otherwise
favor the Democratic nominee; and, lastly, construct a robust
fund-raising operation that can collect the tens of millions it would
cost Mr. Bush to win Florida in a primary and general
election.
Behind
the scenes, those close to Mr. Bush are moving quickly to undermine Mr.
Rubio. A close Bush ally, David Johnson, has taken over the state’s
Republican Party as
interim executive director and, in a blunt interview here, sought to
discourage Mr. Rubio from entering the presidential race.
“I hope that is not going to happen,” Mr. Johnson said. “It’s going to cause a lot of problems in the state of Florida.”
He suggested that Mr. Rubio remain in the Senate, calling him “a young man that has a lot of potential.”
Even
as they acknowledge Mr. Bush’s strength in Florida, allies of Mr. Rubio
insist that there would be plenty of time for the senator to build
momentum and overtake the
Bush organization before the March 15 primary.
Mr.
Rubio’s outspokenness on foreign affairs has won the affections of
influential figures in the interventionist wing of the Republican Party,
and he remains an alluring
figure to wealthy donors. Norman Braman, the billionaire Miami auto
dealer, has told friends that he may invest up to $10 million in Mr.
Rubio’s presidential bid, becoming the kind of megadonor who can sustain
a campaign for months.
But
so far, the state’s political establishment is aligning itself with the
former governor, not the senator. In interviews, a dozen current and
former Florida lawmakers
embraced Mr. Bush’s likely candidacy, citing his record of cutting
taxes and spending as governor.
“The
political leadership of Florida is going to be with Jeb Bush,” said
State Senator Jack Latvala, who represents Clearwater and, despite
repeated clashes with Governor
Bush, wrote a $5,000 check to his political action committee a few
weeks ago.
In
downtown Tallahassee last week, signs of Mr. Bush’s lingering influence
were hard to miss: His former aides and allies populate the glassy
offices of the city’s lobbying
firms, the well-worn seats in the Legislature and the pinstriped booths
inside the Governors Club, a members-only restaurant steps from the
Capitol.
Several
fondly recalled the latest reunion Mr. Bush held at Disney World,
attended by hundreds of former staff members and their families, who
lined up for photographs
with him and roasted him onstage. And they spoke with admiration about
his recent visit to the home of an ailing former aide and state
lawmaker, Ken Plante, just days before he died.
Inside
the Governors Club, over a salad piled high and self-defeatingly with
fried oysters, Mr. Stipanovich took attendance for his old friend. “He’s
for Bush,” he said,
pointing to one lawmaker. “So is he,” he said of another.
Outside,
Mr. Stipanovich approached a former state senator, J. Alex Villalobos, a
Republican from Miami. “Bush or Rubio?” he demanded.
Mr. Villalobos demurred. “Neither.”
Mr. Stipanovich called it a victory for Mr. Bush. “You see that?” he asked.
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