Mexico Becomes the New Israel in Quest for Hispanic Votes

Bloomberg

By Margaret Talev

September 2, 2014

Mexico Becomes the New Israel in Quest for Hispanic Votes 

Shalom, Jerusalem. Hola, Mexico City.

The Middle East has long been a required stop for presidential hopefuls wanting to prove their foreign policy chops. Now, Latin America is becoming an “it” destination for Republicans with an eye on 2016.

In shaping visits and connections with neighboring countries to the south, they’re weighing how to build political goodwill with Latinos who -- at 17.1 percent of the U.S. population and growing -- are increasingly key to winning future elections. They need to distinguish themselves from escalating anti-immigration rhetoric by Republicans in Congress while preserving an ability to secure nomination from their activist base.

In the latest move, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is traveling to Mexico tomorrow on a state trade mission, avoiding a border stop while focusing on the economy.

“A trip to Latin America is becoming just as much of a requirement for candidates as a trip to Israel has been,” said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California and a former Republican political consultant. Christie’s only other foreign trip as governor was to Israel in 2012.

“For a lot of us in the business community, especially the Mexican-American business community, this is a long time coming,” said Hector Barreto, chairman of The Latino Coalition, a nonpartisan advocacy group organized by Hispanic business owners, which helped Christie arrange his Mexico itinerary.

Jewish Model

Barreto led the U.S. Small Business Administration under President George W. Bush and has advised President George W. Bush and past Republican nominees Arizona Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney. Barreto recalled how his late father, a founder of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, decades ago identified the Jewish community’s political activity as an example Hispanics should follow.

“He used to say the Jewish community is doing something very, very important for Israel and we can play a similar role for our native countries in Latin America,” said Barreto.

Jews comprise 2 percent of the U.S. population, making their voting bloc considerably smaller than Hispanics nationally. At the same time, Jewish voters are influential in the swing states of Florida and Ohio, and Jewish donors and activists play significant roles in both parties.

Jewish voters traditionally back Democrats and voted twice for President Barack Obama. At the same time, billionaire Sheldon Adelson and other Jewish Republicans have been working to peel those votes away. For Jews from both parties, presidential candidates’ support of Israel has been a litmus test.

Latino Voters

Over the next generation, Latino voters are projected to surge, with eligible voters growing 40 percent by 2030, to 40 million from 23 million, according to the Pew Research Center. That greatly outpaces the growth of white, black and Asian eligible voters.

Latinos were 8.4 percent of all voters in the 2012 presidential election, Pew found, and the president won their support over Romney, 71 percent to 27 percent. That was a bigger margin than in 2008, when Obama carried Latinos 67 percent to McCain’s 31 percent.

Without a legislative record to demonstrate affinity with those voters, Republicans are heading south of the border to create sympathetic images and talking points.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, an eye surgeon, went to Guatemala last month as part of a pro-bono medical team that performed operations to restore the sight of poor patients. Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, has been asking Mexico to open a consulate in his home state.

Rubio Recalibration

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Governor Rick Perry of Texas, both clipped by their party’s base for appearing too supportive of illegal immigrants, have re-engaged with Latin American leaders even as they’re recalibrating their stances to ease critics within their party.

In July, Rubio met with leaders of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to discuss the dangers of unaccompanied child immigration, while Perry deployed the National Guard to the southern border to try to blunt illegal crossings by many of them.

Meanwhile, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who made his own border visit in July, is seeking to push his party toward a more aggressive anti-immigration stance.

The 2016 calculations are complicated by congressional Republicans’ conclusion they are are better poised to take back control of the Senate in November’s midterm elections if they block passage of an immigration overhaul, deny Obama a political victory and paint Democrats in swing states as weak on national security.

‘Political Death’

“The short-term approach on immigration that could help Republicans win back the Senate this year is almost certain political death if it’s the platform their presidential nominee takes in 2016,” Schnur said.

Advocates for immigration reform said overtures by Christie and Paul are unlikely to translate into significant support in the next presidential election as long as the party’s leadership in Congress continues to block legislation that would create a path to citizenship or legal residency for undocumented immigrants.

“For presidential candidates, it’s good to have some background in foreign policy,” said Lynn Tramonte, deputy director of America’s Voice. “Obviously, that’s not going to do anything to help change their image with Latino, Asian and immigrant voters in the U.S. who believe this is an anti-Latino, anti-Asian, anti-immigrant party.

‘‘You can put perfume on it but it still stinks,’’ she said.

Barreto said that overlooks a genuine understanding by many Republicans, especially governors, of the importance of Latin America to the U.S. economy and national security. He said Democratic and Republican governors alike are in regular contact with leaders in Mexico and visits across the border are increasingly common.

‘‘The perception of being in D.C. and being part of the problem is toxic to anybody who has any future aspirations,’’ he said. ‘‘I think these individuals are saying, ’I’m going to be my kind of Republican. I’m not going to depend on Washington to tell me what the playbook is going to be’.”

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