Hillary Clinton, Hispanics and 2016

The Hill (Opinion)

By Raoul Lowery Contreras

September 23, 2014

Hillary Clinton, Hispanics and 2016 

Blinded by star power manufactured in former President Bill Clinton's shadow, many Hispanics have declared for Hillary Clinton's nascent 2016 presidential campaign, proving that they wish to remain sheep buried in the ignorance they manifested in voting for President Obama.

Hispanics voted in huge numbers (70 percent) for Obama, who promised jobs, education and immigration reform; immigration reform would be done in his first 100 days. A grateful Obama gave Hispanics record high unemployment and underemployment and no improvement in education after he eliminated President George W. Bush's signature educational achievement of "No Child Left Behind," which measurably improved Hispanic test scores.

Most importantly, he did nothing about comprehensive immigration reform. He didn't even lobby for the aborted "DREAM Act" that would have legalized people brought here illegally as children. It failed because even though enough Republicans — three — voted for it to pass, five Democratic senators voted to kill it, with Obama's knowledge.

The highest percentage of Obama Hispanic votes came, as usual, from Puerto Ricans and Dominicans in the Northeast and new Floridian Puerto Ricans. That percentage lowered as the vote moved west into Texas and the Southwest, where Mexican-Americans gave a majority of their vote to Obama, but not 70 percent.

In less than 20 months after voting for Obama, Hispanics have joined the rest of the country and dropped their overwhelming support by more than 20 points in the polls. Obama has suffered more support drop among Hispanics than from any other identifiable group in the country.

Will this drop in support manifest itself at the polls this November? Hispanic and Republican Govs. Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Brian Sandoval in Nevada will run away with their races for reelection, so breaking down their votes won't show much.

The Colorado governorship race and one suburban Denver congressional seat might be affected by Hispanic voting. California has two or three close seats that Hispanics might influence.

Florida's Gov. Rick Scott (R) is carrying a potential two-to-one romp among South Florida's Cuban-Americans into the voting booth that should torpedo formerly Republican governor-turned-independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist's chances into oblivion.

2014 voting Hispanics should have some impact but a lower than 2012 Hispanic turnout will not cast a Hispanic hue to election results this time like they might in 2016's presidential race.

Upwards of 10 million Hispanic voters might vote in 2016 and their effect could be considerable.

First, Hispanic voters in New York and New Jersey (Puerto Rican and Dominican) will have minimal effect because they are guaranteed Democratic voters in Democratic states. The same will be true of Salvadoran voters in Virginia, but that will be a swing state despite Salvadoran votes. Florida's Puerto Rican voters in and around Orlando and Tampa Bay could, if they turn out in huge numbers, affect Florida's vote like they did in 2008 and 2012.

Moving west to Texas, despite registration gains among Democrat Hispanics, Texas will remain solidly Republican and assuming the Republican isn't a raving lunatic on immigration and trade with Mexico, Mexican-Americans could reach 35 percent for the Republican, or more. Arizona will vote Republican, New Mexico might not and Colorado could swing either way depending on the campaign. California will remain Democratic because the Mexican-American voters will need another generation or two of education and business formations to follow the Italian pattern of emigrating out of the Democratic Party into the solid Republican mass they have become.

The 2016 campaign might very well be decided by Hispanic voters and that is why the plunge in Obama's popularity among Hispanics is important, almost as important as an episode in Iowa at Sen. Tom Harkin's (D) traditional steak fry. There, former Secretary of State, former U.S. Senator and wife of former President Bill Clinton totally messed up with her response to a party-crashing Hispanic "Dreamer" immigration activist's question.

When asked what Clinton thought of Obama's punting or kicking his promised immigration reforming executive order can down the road until after the Nov. 4 election, Clinton gave the most ridiculous answer possible and gives evidence to why Mexican-Americans can vote against her with gusto. As reported in The Hill: "'Well, I think we have to just keep working, can't stop ever working,' Clinton said, and added, when pressed, 'You know, I think we have to elect more Democrats.'"

Add one more gaffe to the Hillary Clinton repertoire that so far is highlighted when she claimed that she and Bill left the White House (in 2001) broke, with a daughter in an expensive college and no home of their own.

Certainly, American Hispanic families will shed a tear for the millionaire Clintons and how "broke" they were in 2001 when Hispanics family income was $42,899 and has dropped since while the Clintons have brought in over $100 million dollars for the hard work of speaking into microphones.

Contreras formerly wrote for the New American News Service of The New York Times.

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com