Democrats' Hopes for Senate Control Dim

Wall Street Journal

By Patrick O'Connor and Janet Hook

September 9, 2014

Democrats' Hopes for Senate Control Dim 

Voter sourness toward President Barack Obama and unease over the country's future are dimming the Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate in the November midterm elections.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found a larger share of Americans think the country is on the wrong track than at any previous midterm election in the past 20 years. Mr. Obama's approval rating—40%—is lower than that of former presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton at this stage of their own midterm meltdowns in 2006 and 1994, when both suffered significant losses in Congress.

"The news is not good for Democrats," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducts the Journal poll with Republican Bill McInturff. "It's hard to sugarcoat these findings, which herald a tough election."

Many of the poll's findings spell trouble for Democrats as the party tries to maintain its Senate majority. With the midterms less than two months away, the survey of 1,000 registered voters found the public favoring Republicans on a range of issues, including which party is better equipped to deal with the economy and immigration—once Democratic strong suits.

Republicans need to net six seats this fall to regain control of the Senate. Nine of the top Senate battlegrounds are in states Mr. Obama lost in 2012, including seats in Georgia and Kentucky that Republicans are trying to defend. Voters in the 12 top Senate battlegrounds favor a Republican-controlled Congress by a margin of 50% to 40%, a much wider gap than the spread nationally, the poll found.

As world events overtake domestic political fights, Mr. Obama's stature on that front continues to slump. He hit a new low in how Americans view his handling of foreign policy, with 32% approving and 62% disapproving. The biggest drop-off occurred among women and fellow Democrats.

The poll, which was conducted Sept. 3-7, overlapped with news that members of the Islamic State beheaded a second American journalist. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Republicans seem to be benefiting from the conflagrations overseas, with voters giving the GOP a sizeable edge on the question of which party they would rather see deal with foreign-policy issues. That is a big shift from the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, when more Americans trusted the Democrats.

In the latest survey, 54% of voters trusted Republicans to ensure a strong national defense. Only 16% sided with the Democrats.

There are some silver linings for Democrats. The party is running ahead of where it was among independents and older voters at this stage in 2010, when both constituencies broke decisively for the GOP. Democrats also have a big advantage on the question of which party would do a better job looking out for the interests of women and protecting the environment, and maintain a smaller edge in dealing with health care.

And in the 12 top Senate battlegrounds, voters put more faith in Democrats than Republicans to deal with the economy, 48% to 36%.

Women, a critical constituency for Democrats heading into November, still favor a Congress controlled by Democrats, 47% to 40%. But that margin narrowed slightly since the latest Journal poll was released in early August. Mr. Obama's support among women also slipped between surveys, and female voters gave Republicans a slim edge in which party they would rather have dealing with the economy.

"The margins are a really big deal because Democrats' hopes have been based in needing very large margins among women," said Mr. McInturff, the Journal's GOP pollster.

Mr. Obama and fellow Democrats are also losing voter confidence on another top issue where they have dominated for years: changes to immigration law. More voters say they believed Republicans would do a better job handling the issue, which has divided both parties and come to the fore in the run-up to the midterm elections.

It remains unclear whether either party will be able to turn voter anxiety into a political advantage. Voters remain narrowly divided over which party they want to control Congress, with 45% favoring Republican control and 43% favoring Democrats.

But a majority on both sides of that question said their preference reflects a desire to block the other party rather than to support their own candidates—54% of backers of the Democrats and 59% of Republican supporters. More than half said the outcome won't have much impact on what happens in Washington.

"It's going to be the lesser of two evils," said John Gaskins, 48, of Waterford, Mich., a state with competitive Senate and gubernatorial contests. "I don't like either one of them. The more they try to help me in the middle class, the more they hurt me."

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