Roll Call
By Matthew Fleming
November 5, 2015
With
Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s comments about immigration Sunday, the top two
Republicans in Congress have now declared dead the prospects of an
overhaul before the 2016
elections.
In
the aftermath of 2012, when Latinos made up 10 percent of the
electorate and President Barack Obama was re-elected resoundingly,
Republican lawmakers and strategists
predicted the GOP’s White House ambitions were directly tied to the
passage of comprehensive immigration legislation. Many of those voices
haven’t changed their tune.
Sen.
John McCain, R-Ariz., one of the four “gang of eight” Republicans who
successfully navigated an immigration overhaul through the Senate in
2013, told CQ Roll Call
it will be “extremely difficult” for a Republican to win the White
House without action on immigration.
“I
wouldn’t predict, but I think that when you have a majority of a
Hispanic population right now identifying themselves as in favor of some
kind of path to citizenship
and it’s important to them, I think it makes it more difficult,” McCain
said Tuesday.
That’s
a softened take from June 2014, when he said it wouldn’t matter whom
the party nominated for president if the GOP blocked immigration
legislation. That came just
a month after Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue suggested
Republicans shouldn’t even put up a candidate if they failed to pass an
overhaul.
Two
other Republicans from the gang of eight, Lindsey Graham of South
Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida, have discussed immigration policy
on the presidential campaign
trail. But Rubio backed off his advocacy for the 2013 bill after
conservatives tagged a provision on granting a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants as “amnesty.”
The
presidential race isn’t the only one where this issue could play a
significant role. Republicans, who have a vulnerable majority going into
next year, are defending
Rubio’s open seat in Florida and their top two pick-up opportunities
are in Nevada and Colorado — all states with sizable Hispanic
populations.
Ryan’s
immigration comments Sunday mirrored what Senate Majority Leader Mitch
McConnell, R-Ky., said right before the August recess — both pinned
their decision not to
pursue comprehensive legislation on Obama’s executive actions, some of
which are being challenged in court.
Sen.
Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., the fourth Republican in the Senate gang of eight,
agreed that the prospects of a wide-ranging bill are dead for now,
though he noted “something
on the margins” is possible. While Flake believes an immigration
overhaul isn’t a prerequisite to getting a Republican in the White
House, he said a successful GOP candidate will need a plan.
“I
think that any Republican running for president has to have a realistic
approach,” Flake told CQ Roll Call. “That’s not to say that immigration
reform has to be accomplished
in this Congress — I wish it would be, I’m still pushing for it. But
whoever’s running for president as a Republican has to have a rational
position.”
Of
the GOP presidential candidates, Flake said business tycoon Donald
Trump “does not” have a rational position, but those who do include
former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush,
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Rubio and Graham.
On
Sunday, Ryan said pieces such as border enforcement or interior
security are possible this Congress, but comprehensive legislation won’t
happen “with a president whose
proven himself untrustworthy on this issue.” That position supports a
pledge Ryan offered to House conservatives last month as he sought a
consensus for his speaker bid.
Following
his comments on national network TV, conservatives said they scored a
major concession from the Wisconsin Republican, who has championed
efforts to grant legal
status to undocumented immigrants. Members of the House Freedom Caucus
said they don’t think he would support that even as a stand-alone bill,
separate from a comprehensive overhaul.
McCain
agreed that Obama’s actions were “very, very damaging” to the process,
especially since Obama didn’t make a strong push for an immigration
overhaul when Democrats
“had overwhelming majorities in 2009 and 2010.”
Senate
Minority Whip Richard J. Durbin, a fellow gang of eight member, panned
using Obama as a scapegoat, noting that the bipartisan Senate bill died
in the Republican-controlled
House prior to any executive action.
“For
some people in politics, any excuse will do — this one is the least
credible,” the Illinois Democrat said. “The president took the action he
did because the House
failed to act. And now, Speaker Ryan is using that as an excuse to
continue to fail to act.”
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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