The Nation
By Joshua Holland
October 1, 2015
Even Donald Trump may be worried that his party’s nativist streak is
damaging its brand. This week, he told 60 Minutes that while he would
round up and deport 11 million
unauthorized immigrants, he’d make sure to do it “in a very humane way,
in a very nice way.”
It’s
become a political cliché that the GOP’s rhetoric on immigration is
suicidal given the growing importance of the Hispanic vote. But the U.S.
is home to immigrant
communities from all over the world, and political journalists’
constant discussion of the Hispanic vote obscures the extraordinary
richness of our diversity. It’s what makes America truly exceptional.
The U.S. is home to one out of every five immigrants
on the planet. No other country welcomes as many immigrants as we do,
nor assimilates them as well.
The
Pew Research Center released a remarkable study this week, looking at
how immigration has changed the face of the nation over the past fifty
years, and projecting
how it’s likely to continue doing so over the next fifty.
Over
the last half-century, since the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act
was passed, new immigrants and their children have accounted for 55
percent of the nation’s
population growth, and Pew projects that almost 90 percent of
population growth over the next 50 years will be driven by migration. If
current trends continue, the foreign-born and their children will make
up over a third of the population by 2065.
Now,
it does make sense that we tend to focus on Latinos when debating the
politics of immigration. It was the California Republican party’s
perceived hostility to this
community that helped turned what was once a swing-state with a slight
GOP lean into one of the bluest in the country. And today, Hispanics
make up a significant share of the population in five of the most hotly
contested states in national races: Colorado
(21 percent); Florida (23 percent); Nevada (27 percent); Virginia (8
percent) and Iowa (5 percent).
But
while pressing two for Spanish enrages anti-immigrant hardliners, less
than half of the immigrant population in the US is Hispanic. Over a
quarter are Asian–they represented
the largest share of new arrivals between 2000 and 2010. And the
researchers at Pew expect Asian-Americans to surpass Hispanics as the
largest minority group in the US by 2065, when they’re projected to make
up almost 40 percent of the population.
According to the Census Bureau, the African-born population has roughly doubled in every decade since the 1970s.
And
while many Americans think of immigrants as being people of color–they
tend to picture that Mexican laborer rather than the stereotypical Irish
bartender or their
friendly neighbor from Toronto–about one in five immigrants are white
people, mostly from Europe and Canada.
Trump’s
xenophobia, while notably extreme, isn’t new to Republican campaigns.
Harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric is a mainstay on the right. And over the
past ten years–since
the idea of comprehensive immigration reform was first floated in 2005
by Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and the late Ted Kennedy
(D-Mass.)–that rhetoric has been particularly ugly. While there aren’t
reliable data on every immigrant group’s voting preferences,
there’s no reason to believe it hasn’t pissed them all off as much as
it has Latinos.
Historically,
Asian-Americans tended to vote in low numbers, but their turnout rates
have been trending upward over the past few cycles. While they’re
anything but a monolithic
group, as a whole their partisan leanings have tracked those of the
Hispanic population almost perfectly in recent years (these were the
only two groups to vote for Obama by larger margins in 2012 than in
2008). Like Latinos, Asian-Americans have been running
away from the GOP for over a decade. A majority supported George HW
Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush won 44 percent of
their votes in 2004. But that declined to 35 percent for John McCain in
2008, and Mitt Romney received the support of
only 26 percent of the Asian-American vote in 2012 (Bush also won 44
percent of the Latino vote in 2004, and Romney got 27 percent).
Between
two and four million people in the US trace their origins to Arabic
countries. According to Census figures, that population has doubled
since 1980. Arab-Americans
are a key constituency in Michigan, and may help turn Texas purple in
the coming years. According to Arab-American Institute President James
Zogby, who has been polling this group for over 20 years, their votes
were divided more or less equally between Democrats
and Republicans throughout the 1990s, but shifted dramatically toward
the Dems during George W. Bush’s tenure.
While
the African-born population has grown dramatically in recent decades,
it still remains quite small, and we don’t know much about this highly
educated group’s partisan
preferences. But in 2008, journalist Edwin Okong’o wrote that while
“African immigrants have traditionally steered clear of politics in this
country,” Obama’s candidacy caused many to enter the political fray
“with increasing zeal and passion.” Perhaps accusing
him of being a Kenyan interloper will prove problematic as this group
continues to grow in numbers.
According
to the Census Bureau, 45 percent of the foreign-born population are US
Citizens. Another 30 percent are here legally, and whether or not
Congress ever passes
immigration reform, many of them will be naturalized. And this month,
the White House infuriated conservatives by kicking off a nationwide
campaign to encourage almost nine million immigrants who are eligible to become citizens to make the leap.
There were fewer than ten million foreign-born residents of the US in 1965, and that number will reach 78 million by 2065. These Americans and future Americans are paying attention. They heard Mitt Romney tout the virtues of “self-deportion” in 2012, and they’re watching the Republican candidates trying to keep up with Trump, with his classy wall and jackboot-free roundup. They hear people on the right describing immigrants as “illegals,” and they see them angrily waving misspelled signs demanding that everyone speaks English.
There were fewer than ten million foreign-born residents of the US in 1965, and that number will reach 78 million by 2065. These Americans and future Americans are paying attention. They heard Mitt Romney tout the virtues of “self-deportion” in 2012, and they’re watching the Republican candidates trying to keep up with Trump, with his classy wall and jackboot-free roundup. They hear people on the right describing immigrants as “illegals,” and they see them angrily waving misspelled signs demanding that everyone speaks English.
Research shows that ideology and voting preferences tend to be sticky – they’re passed from one generation to the next – so unless American conservatives can somehow come to grips with the changing face of this country, they’re in store for some serious trouble in the years ahead.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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