The Republican Crack-Up

Wall Street Journal (Editorial)

October 8, 2015

The Republican Crack-Up 

Kevin McCarthy suddenly quit his bid to succeed John Boehner as House Speaker on Thursday, amid an increasingly toxic crack-up inside the Republican conference. At 247 Members, the GOP enjoys its largest House majority since the 71st Congress of 1929-30—but a minority may squander it with ultimatums and self-sabotage.

Republicans met Thursday to nominate a candidate for Speaker, only for Mr. McCarthy to stand down before the ballot. By all accounts the California Republican would have won a majority. And in a normal Congress the conference would unite behind the winner as the GOP candidate for Speaker later this month.

But despite being the overwhelming Republican choice, Mr. McCarthy lacked enough GOP votes to get to 218 to make a House majority. The California Republican was implacably opposed by some 30 or 40 Members who refuse to abide by the majority-of-the-majority precedent on the floor. To obtain the gavel he probably would have needed Democrats, effectively elevating Nancy Pelosi to co-Speaker. That would mean major concessions to the liberal agenda, and Mr. McCarthy chose the public good over personal ambition.

The refuseniks in the Freedom Caucus told Mr. McCarthy he was contaminated by his years as Mr. Boehner’s leadership deputy and they would never vote for him, despite his efforts at accommodation. Their horse is Daniel Webster of Florida, who is unknown outside of his district and might have 40 votes at most.

The rebels don’t have nearly enough support to stand up their own man, but they can blow up all House business and decapitate the leadership of their own party. The danger is that having deposed Mr. Boehner and now Mr. McCarthy, they will refuse to back anyone who won’t meet their demands.

The refuseniks belong to the larger conservative sub-movement that blames “the Republican establishment” for all the country’s problems, not President Obama, Hillary Clinton or bad policy choices that can be reversed with someone else in the White House. The listless economy, the failure to repeal ObamaCare or secure the border—all these disappointments supposedly can be blamed on GOP leaders who don’t fight hard enough.

Donald Trump is one vessel for this frustration, Ted Cruz another. Notably, the Freedom Caucus-goers met with the Texas Republican and presidential candidate earlier this week. In this age of political polarization, they’re trying to tap into the anger among Americans who believe correctly that Washington is a mess.

Yet by now the anti-establishment is its own establishment with its own elites who serve the self-interest of cable-news ratings, talk-radio market share and high-dollar fundraising for Washington-based think tanks and political action committees. Well back in the polls and isolated in the GOP Senate, Mr. Cruz sees a government shutdown as his best path to the presidential nomination.

We share most of the Freedom Caucus’s policy goals. But what they haven’t offered is a realistic or even remotely plausible strategy to achieve what these conservatives say they want until there is a GOP President. Their demands on Mr. McCarthy included electing one of their Members as Majority Leader when not one of them can get the votes himself. Some are also demanding that protectionist Members be put on Ways and Means to blow up the Pacific trade deal.

The GOP Congress could slip into chaos that cedes the agenda to Democrats or is unable to do even the most basic work of government. GOP approval ratings, already low, will sink further and let Democrats run against a reckless Congress. Add Mr. Trump as the presidential nominee, and the GOP could lose the House, Senate and White House in 2016.

The current House disorder could continue for days or weeks as Republicans search for somebody, anybody, who can command 218. One idea is to nominate a caretaker for the next 14 months, such as Education Committee Chairman John Kline, who is retiring. But a Speaker known to be a short-timer will be weak and has little hope of stanching the internal dysfunction in an election year.

***

Paul Ryan’s colleagues are already imploring him to stand as the only potential Speaker who could consolidate the GOP’s factions. He’s said repeatedly he doesn’t want the job, and no wonder. If the only way to become and remain Speaker is to capitulate to the impossible demands of a rump minority, then you’re being set up to fail.

Then again, Mr. Ryan may be the only Republican with the national standing and conservative credentials to defy the Cruz ultimatums. He’d be assailed with the usual sellout and surrender epithets, any future presidential ambitions might suffer, and he’d have less time for his young children. But he could save the House majority from self-destruction.

Working with a Republican President in 2017, he would be a consequential Speaker. In a more high-profile role, he could also better steer Republicans away from the anti-growth economics that is on the rise as the Trump-Cruz faction turns not merely against immigration but also free trade and entitlement reform.

The Wisconsin Republican says he prefers to remain at the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, but he won’t return as Chairman if Republicans lose the House. The contagion that took out Mr. McCarthy will continue to spread, and don’t be surprised if Mr. Ryan concludes he must make his own personal sacrifice to stop it.

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com