New Republic (Opinion)
By Brian Beutler
July 23, 2015
For
almost three years now, Republican strategic thought has been roughly
divided between two schools. One, represented by Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio,
and to a lesser extent
Rand Paul, accepts the notion that the party must improve its
performance with minority voters, without sacrificing its command of the
white vote, in order to remain competitive in presidential elections.
The other, represented by Ted Cruz and Scott Walker,
rejects this premise.
These
Republicans hew to the theory, expressed numerically by
RealClearPolitics analyst Sean Trende, that making inroads with
minorities is not important. The key to winning,
they believe, lies with activating a large block of the white
electorate that has stood on the sidelines, but would find a natural
home in a Republican party if it were led by someone who could channel
the political mood of the white working class.
Donald
Trump is currently performing the hugely important political task of
adjudicating this intra-GOP debate. Running as a Republican, Trump has
made both factions’
goals—and the overarching goal of winning the presidency—more elusive.
But by stitching together all the performative qualities Republicans
have nurtured on the right over the years—pomp and property worship,
xenophobia and anti-establishmentarianism—he’s
also showing us what it takes to stir the passions of these missing
white voters. Most Republicans, quite sensibly, are horrified by what
they see.
In
years past, Republicans didn’t think of Trumpism as a liability so long
as Trump was outside the tent pissing further out. When Trump was
busily whipping up reactionary
sentiment, indulging birther conspiracies, Republicans didn’t see a
“jackass”—they saw an opportunity. They recognized his appeal to a
segment of white voters, and concluded it could be put to good use, so
long as he marshaled his followers into the Republican
electorate. They didn’t call him a media creation back then—they sought
his endorsement.
Trump
is now inside the tent, pissing everywhere. He threatens to neutralize
the potential of these voters, or train them as a weapon against their
own natural party,
while bulldozing inroads to minorities. By placing xenophobic
immigration politics at the center of the campaign, he’s made it
practically impossible for Republicans to convince minorities that
there's a softer side of the GOP. And by condemning him so vocally,
his Republican critics are reminding Trump’s supporters of everything
they don’t like about the Republican party.
A
nationwide Washington Post/ABC poll shows Hillary Clinton running ahead
of Jeb Bush in a head-to-head matchup by a healthy but malleable 50-44
percent margin—the kind
of margin that might close in a world where Bush manages to both
increase the GOP's share of the Latino vote and bring more members of
the white working class along for the ride. But Trump’s primary
candidacy is poisoning the GOP’s relationship with both sets
of voters.
Republicans
are therefore casting about for ways to extirpate the Trump phenomenon.
Ideally a serious scandal or the financial consequences of his
impolitic outbursts
would end his candidacy, and quickly.
But
party officials have refused to ask him to leave the race, let alone
force him out. To mistreat Trump is to invite him to launch a
third-party candidacy, and if he
were to run as an independent, as he routinely threatens, the GOP’s
narrow path to the presidency would close completely.
That
same Washington Post/ABC poll also poses a three-way race between
Clinton, Bush, and Trump. In that scenario, Clinton’s vote share drops
by only three percent. Bush’s
drops by 15. Altogether, Clinton winds up with 47, Bush with 29, and
Trump with 19. The Bush and Trump shares combined are larger than
Clinton's, which lends credence to the missing white voter theory. The
problem is there's no way to encapsulate their individual
appeals in a single candidacy.
Any
Republican running against Clinton and Trump would have to choose
between doubling back and fighting Trump for his share of the white
vote, or jettisoning the Republican
platform and competing with Clinton for Democratic votes. Which is
another way of saying the GOP’s only option would be to lose. Even at
two or three percent, Trump’s impact on the Republican candidate would
be fatal.
If
Trump were truly the media’s creation, as nervous Republicans like to
claim he is, his candidacy would be a fleeting nuisance to more viable
Republicans, and if he
drops out early, the damage he’s doing might reverse itself. But
Republicans can’t plausibly claim that what’s happening is a purely
media-enabled stunt. They’ve recognized Trump’s draw on certain white
voters in the past. They’ve tried to capitalize on it.
He’s just showing them what it takes to do it for themselves.
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