New York Times
By Maggie Haberman and Nick Corasanti
July 30, 2015
The
most pressing question that Donald J. Trump could face next week in the
first debate of the 2016 presidential race may not be about Iran or
immigration, but this:
Can he deploy enough adjectives (“huge!”), superlatives (“the worst!”)
and invectives (“loser!”) for him to use up his time without being
challenged successfully on the substance of policy?
Mr.
Trump could come away a winner if he makes cogent points without
sounding too hostile, presenting himself as more of a serious-minded,
anti-establishment voice in
a primary crowded with career Republican politicians. But there are
risks for him if he turns the debate stage in Cleveland into another
episode of the reality show his campaign has sometimes resembled.
He
boasts about spending no time preparing for the event, which will be
broadcast on Fox News on Aug. 6, even as his aides have put together
briefing papers for him on
policy and pungent lines of attack. He already knows plenty about the
issues, he says, so much that, rather than cramming, he will be in
Scotland over the weekend at a golf tournament on one of his courses.
And
after weeks of slashing at his opponents in interviews, he refuses to
say whom he may single out when the 10 leading primary contenders stand
side by side. “I have
great respect for some of the candidates,” Mr. Trump said in an
interview. “I don’t have great respect for others.”
He
cannot know who will try to embarrass him. Then again, he suggested, he
may just choose targets of opportunity. “It depends on the feel,” he
said. “It depends on what’s
taking place.”
No
candidate is more likely to wing it than the mercurial Mr. Trump. But
the man who read Senator Lindsey Graham’s cellphone number aloud on a
South Carolina stage has
set the bar fairly high for himself to do something that would qualify
as outrageous.
He
is likely to arrive in Cleveland ready with cutting “observations”
about each of his rivals, according to a person briefed on Mr. Trump’s
debate preparations who was
not authorized to speak publicly. (A recent example: He said former
Gov. Rick Perry of Texas “put glasses on so people will think he’s
smart.” He added, “It just doesn’t work.”)
Mr.
Trump’s mantra, in his books and in his paid speeches, is to
counterattack harder when anyone throws a punch. (As he did when gently
chastised by Gov. Scott Walker
of Wisconsin. “Wisconsin is a mess,” Mr. Trump retorted.)
He
could also single out just one of his rivals, especially a formidable
one, for ridicule and provocation. (Jeb Bush, he said not long ago, is
“an unhappy person.”)
In
a 90-minute debate with 10 candidates, Mr. Trump’s speaking time is
unlikely to reach 10 minutes, even with rebuttals, leaving little time
for him to delve into policy
details. But he could be pressed to do more than trash the Iran nuclear
deal or the Obama administration’s foreign policy in broad terms, or
claim he has a secret plan to defeat the Islamic State, as he has done
so far.
“He’s
gotten away with just blustery criticisms and sweeping generalizations
until now,” Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who advised Mitt
Romney in 2012, said in
an email. “It will be interesting to see if the Fox moderators, who are
trusted validators among Republican primary voters, force him to
provide more specifics on important policy issues.”
Who Is Running for President?
“He
can’t just complain about the media to a Republican audience when it’s
Bret Baier asking the question,” he said, referring to a Fox News
anchor.
There
have already been glimpses of less-than-sure-footedness from Mr. Trump
on the campaign trail. On a trip last week to Laredo, Tex., to visit the
border with Mexico,
he had difficulty summoning details when pressed on how he would fix
the immigration system.
“We
have to have legal immigration, legal immigration,” he said repeatedly.
“We want to get legal immigration in. We want legal immigration.”
He
seemed relieved when a reporter changed the subject for him, asking
about Mr. Perry — and allowing him to return to the offensive.
Mr.
Trump betrays no anxiety about his command of the issues. In fact, he
maintains that his rivals are afraid of him. So much so that, he
claimed, some of them, he declined
to say which, have privately asked him to go easy on them in the
debate.
It
is possible, of course, that Mr. Trump could choose to disarm his
opponents not by finding new ways to humiliate them but by being
statesmanlike and courteous.
“If
we live in a world where he is a serious candidate and intends to prove
that he’s a serious candidate, then it is a real opportunity,” said
Stuart Stevens, another
former Romney adviser. “I think for Donald Trump, a boring debate would
probably help.”
Brett
O’Donnell, who is coaching Mr. Graham on debate skills, ventured that
if Mr. Trump insulted his rivals incessantly or indiscriminately, he
could alienate viewers.
If he refrains, Mr. O’Donnell added, “I think he helps himself if he
comes off as a serious candidate who is viewed by folks as competent
enough to be president of the United States.”
But others think there is little chance that the format will allow for such a thing.
“The
debate moderators will pride themselves on throwing one candidate
against another,” said Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican
strategist. “A fistfight is unavoidable,”
he added.
Unlike
on “The Apprentice,” though, Mr. Trump’s rivals will not be under
orders to take his abuse stoically. One of them could, conceivably, hit
back even harder.
“The
most memorable debates are defined by moments of strength or moments of
weakness,” Mr. Madden said. “One of the other candidates has to be the
one to make that moment
of weakness happen for Trump. It’s like the big-talking bully who goes
around the neighborhood popping off about how he’s the toughest kid on
the block. Kick his tail fair and square in front of everyone, and you
own the neighborhood.”
Perhaps
mindful that the night could prove something other than an unbridled
success, Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he has never debated before and
denigrated the whole
enterprise: Debates, he said in the interview, are “really irrelevant
to running the country and making the country great again.”
What is clear is that his goals for the debate are not what other candidates’ goals are.
He
needs only to earn praise from the supporters who have driven him to
the top of the Republican primary polls — and not to disappoint them.
And he brims with confidence that he will succeed at that, whether other people admit it or not.
“No matter how well I do,” he said, “everyone will say I lost.”
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
No comments:
Post a Comment