Washington Post (Opinion)
By Janell Ross
June 3, 2015
A couple months ago, we declared Marco Rubio to be the "upside candidate" in the 2016 presidential race. He's proving us right.
A
new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday shows Rubio has the
best split between his favorable rating and his unfavorable rating in
the ever-expanding 2016
Republican field. Among Republicans, 37 percent more said they like him
than don't. Among independent voters, Rubio’s favorable rating outpaces
his negatives by seven percentage points.
Perhaps
more important, during this, the pre-pre-primary season, is Rubio’s
standing with multiple Republican factions. Put plainly: Rubio is
broadly liked by almost all
of them. His favorable rating among "very conservative" Republicans
outpaces his negative ratings by 49 percent, by 26 percent among
moderate and liberal Republicans and by 39 percent with "somewhat
conservative" Republicans. In addition, Rubio's favorable
rating among evangelical Republicans sits 44 points above his
negatives. The same holds true if you keep digging into the Washington
Post/ABC News poll results.
No
other candidate can claim such broad acceptance at this point. And
while Rubio is jumbled in with the rest of the field (a seven-way
virtual tie at this point), he's
far less reliant on one particular (and limited) group of GOP
supporters. Hence, the "upside" designation.
About
11 percent of "very conservative" Republican voters said they would
back Rubio today, as would 9 percent of both "less conservative" and
"moderate/liberal" Republicans.
By comparison, just 2 percent of "very conservative" Republicans said
they would support former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who relies heavily
on more moderate Republicans (18 percent). Another contrast is Sen. Ted
Cruz (R-Tex.), who gets 19 percent from "very
conservative" voters but just 2 percent from moderate Republicans.
Only one demographic group goes for Rubio by less than 9 percent -- those ages 18 to 49.
The
results expand on and confirm an April poll which shows that Rubio was
the candidate that the most Republicans could see themselves voting for.
And
it’s particularly interesting that this level of affection for Rubio
exists in the most conservative corners of the GOP constituency, despite
Rubio’s attempt at comprehensive
immigration reform -- something broadly unacceptable to such voters.
This, however, comes with a number of important caveats.
First,
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker appears to be nipping at Rubio's heels when
it comes to this distinction. Walker also seems to appeal to several
parts of the GOP constituency
and enjoys significant positive ratings across the board. He's also
young, has a solid political resume (three statewide wins in four years)
and a track record of tangling with unions that will make some
Republicans swoon.
Second,
Rubio's bold step forward then quiet steps back on immigration reform
put a spotlight on his ability to engage in the grandest of political
dances. And while time
the passage of time has certainly assisted in restoring his good
standing among conservative voters -- his poll numbers took a
significant hit in the immediate aftermath -- they will certainly be
reapprised of his efforts when the campaign truly ramps up.
And
at this point, Rubio isn't going to surprise anyone. He is contending
with the once presumptive front-runner and his own one-time mentor, Jeb
Bush, for donations and
attention. Rubio is no longer the second-tier hopeful he once was; he
is part of an ever-expanding first tier.
Still,
the takeaway from Tuesday’s Washington Post/ABC News Poll has to be
this: Rubio’s standing with Republicans is good -- and has the potential
to be even better.
And that means even reliable GOP voters who are right now backing other
candidates might not mind voting for Rubio if their first choice should
fall.
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