Washington Post (Right Turn)
By Jennifer Rubin
June 12, 2015
While
Jeb Bush was being skewered by the political press for not being far
ahead of 20 other candidates before he has announced his candidacy and
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
is making the New York Times look downright foolish, Wisconsin Gov.
Scott Walker did not make much news this week. That is generally a good
thing — at least when your campaign is firing on all cylinders. But he
should not get too comfortable. There are pitfalls
ahead he will need to sidestep.
First,
Amy Walter at Cook Political Report has it exactly right when she
warns, “As Walker flexes his conservative muscle on everything from
immigration to gay marriage
to abortion, he also risks being easily portrayed as ‘out of touch’ to
the moderate voters needed to win next fall.” Even before the general
election, he does not want to get lumped in with the wacky populists
making himself unacceptable to a chunk of the
party. He needs to remain smack-dab in the middle of the GOP party and
be the candidate who can unify the GOP. That means not indulging in
scare-mongering on immigration, or suggesting there is a “solution”
beyond the Supreme Court if it rules gay marriage
is protected by the 14th Amendment. The good news is that he has not
yet committed himself to such positions; the danger is that he may feel
tempted to give the base too much of what they want to hear. That would
concede too much of the GOP electorate to Bush
and Rubio and plague him in the general election.
Second,
he has to get through his budget battles back home. The good news is
that he can run on accomplishments (e.g. tax cuts, spending reductions).
The bad news is that
if he does not get some items he has highlighted (e.g. dumping Common
Core) he will have to explain his shortcomings. Expectations are high
that the governor who stared down the public employee unions can get
anything he wants; the reality may be quite different.
For example, he is trying to “take from professors and staff certain
decision-making powers about campus issues including curriculum,
research and faculty status. Combined with ending tenure in state law,
the higher education proposal would be the first of
its kind in the country.” Whether it is higher ed or job growth or
transportation he is about to enter a period of time where his opponents
and the media will go through his promises and results with a
fine-toothed comb. Rhetoric and results will need to align.
Third,
he needs a national agenda, one that can stand up to scrutiny and stand
out in a race that will feature a host of innovative policy proposals,
especially from Rubio
and Bush. We are developing a good sense of his world view and his
mainstream, hawkish instincts, but he is largely a blank slate on the
major domestic issues. What kind of tax reform does he want? What
specifically will he propose on immigration? If the sequester
caps do not allow for sufficient defense spending, will he dump them?
What is his approach to entitlements or to fighting poverty? When he
becomes a candidate he’ll be asked about his ideas on these and other
topics. He will need to offer a positive, concrete
agenda. He wants big, bold reforms, he says. He’ll need to show us what
they are.
Fourth,
as one of the top-tier candidates in the race he is going to be hit
with incoming fire in the first debate and those that follow. He must
carve out time in the
next two months to learn issues inside-out and to prepare for the sort
of high-pressure debates that proved Rick Perry’s undoing in 2012. In an
interview setting he has been able to “clarify” later on or have an
aide explain on background as to what he really
meant. In a debate setting — especially for a first-time contender — he
will need to avoid self-inflicted errors and display a sunny demeanor —
consistently.
Walker,
like Rubio, has had a very strong start in the presidential race. He
should enjoy it while it lasts — and be fully cognizant of dangers that
await.
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