The Demographic Case for Republicans to Take Up Immigration

Wall Street Journal (Opinion)

By Zoltan Hajnal

May 29, 2015

The Demographic Case for Republicans to Take Up Immigration 

The Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling upholding a lower court’s stay of the president’s plan to defer deportations for millions of undocumented immigrants is a victory for Republicans–and an opportunity.

The issue is larger than this legal case. There are an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country. In about three decades, whites will cease to be a majority of our country’s population–and changing U.S. demography presents the Republican Party with a massive challenge.

In 2014, roughly 90% of all votes for Republican candidates for the U.S. House came from whites–and disproportionately from older white Americans. By contrast, among Latinos and Asian Americans, the two fastest-growing minority groups, Republicans have fared poorly. In 2014 House elections, Democrats won about 62% of the Latino vote. Data from the 2012 and 2010 elections at multiple levels indicate that roughly two-thirds of the Latino and Asian American vote went Democratic. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59% of white voters but lost the presidential election by 5 million votes. If Republicans do not woo more minority supporters–as party leaders acknowledged in the wake of Mr. Romney’s defeat–the GOP stands little chance of winning the White House in 2016 and beyond.

But Democrats’ inability to implement immigration reform presents Republicans with an opportunity: With their majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans can pass legislation that provides more of what they want (security) and less of what they don’t (amnesty). If a GOP-led immigration bill appeals to Latinos, Asian Americans, and undocumented immigrants, it would be politically difficult for President Barack Obama to veto. This means the GOP could be seen as the party that finally moved comprehensive immigration reform forward.

If Republicans advance a bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for a subset of the undocumented population–such as youths brought to this country illegally–even one with preconditions such as paying back taxes or not having a criminal record, the Latinos and Asian Americans voting Democratic might shift their loyalties. When asked in surveys, more than half of Latinos and Asian Americans indicate that they identify as independent or do not think in partisan terms. Many have said that they are willing to support candidates from any party that helps to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Latino Decisions reported in 2013 that 43% of Latinos who supported Mr. Obama said they would be more likely to vote Republican if the GOP leads on immigration.

There are, of course, risks for Republicans in supporting immigration legislation. As Marisa Abrajano and I wrote in “White Backlash: Immigration, Race, and American Politics,” many white Americans are deeply concerned about negative cultural and economic effects of immigration, and those concerns have led to increased Republican identification and greater support for GOP candidates. Republicans could lose some of those white votes by pursuing a bill. But if Republican leaders craft the right mix of border security upfront and conditional citizenship in the future, they could simultaneously appease white Americans and please Latinos and Asian Americans. Ultimately, the Republican Party’s long-term future is too bleak and this opportunity to win over new non-white voters too great to ignore.

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com