Politico Pro
By Kevin Robillard
March 28, 2018
In a dismal year for Republicans on the ballot, a few bright spots have lifted GOP spirits of late in the battle for Senate control.
In North Dakota, a sought-after GOP recruit, Rep. Kevin Cramer, changed his mind and jumped into the race against Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp. And perhaps more significant, Florida Gov. Rick Scott inched closer this week to bringing his statewide name ID and boatloads of money to the race against vulnerable Sen. Bill Nelson.
But lest the GOP get its hopes up, there have been warning signs to counter the encouraging news. The issue on which Republicans were planning to stake their fortunes in the midterms — their massive tax cut bill, H.R. 1 (115) — hasn’t been a game changer. And now some in the party are resting their hopes on the idea that President Donald Trump, whose national approval ratings are in the tank, can somehow rescue them in conservative-leaning states that he carried in 2016.
Though the map tilts Republican, the overall political environment remains very friendly to Democrats. Many of their swing-state incumbents are socking away cash for the general election, while Republicans in states like West Virginia and Indiana continue to beat up one another and squander money in increasingly brutal primary contests. Plus, the party is starting to believe it has a shot in two open seats in deep-red states in the South, with a strong recruit creating hope in Tennessee and a complicated special election giving them hope in Mississippi.
With this in mind, here’s a look at POLITICO’s latest Senate race rankings, in order from the most to least likely to flip in November:
1. Nevada — GOP Sen. Dean Heller running for reelection (Previous ranking: 1)
Heller received some major help when businessman Danny Tarkanian, at the urging of Trump, dropped his primary challenge and decided to run for Congress instead. Heller had hugged Trump, even though the president narrowly lost Nevada, while Tarkanian ran against Heller from the right. It remains to be seen whether Heller will shift to the center without a primary challenger, or if he’ll stick close to the president, reflecting a chamber-wide strategy of hoping to fire up the Trump base. But the political and demographic winds in a swing state remain against him. His opponent, Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, outraised him in the final quarter of 2017. Let’s see whether tax reform provides him with a boost to start off 2018.
2. Indiana — Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly running for reelection (3)
Donnelly continues to benefit from a competitive GOP primary, with his opponents more focused on beating up one another than attacking him. None of his three challengers — Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer , plus businessman and former state Rep. Mike Braun — have managed to pull away from the pack, and the trio continue to slam one another as insiders and secret liberals. Still, Republicans think any of the three can beat the incumbent. Donnelly has a smaller war chest than some of the other Democratic incumbents in more expensive states, with $5.3 million in the bank. The outcome of the May 8 GOP primary should provide a hint about Donnelly’s vulnerability in the fall.
3. Missouri — Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill running for reelection (2)
McCaskill has nearly eight times as much cash on hand as her likely opponent, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the GOP’s top Senate recruit this cycle. Hawley launched his campaign earlier this month, proposing to build a coalition of traditional conservatives and Trump-inspired populists. He successfully built this coalition last cycle, en route to winning more votes than any other statewide candidate, and got some help toward replicating that when Trump campaigned for him earlier this month. But defeating a politician as crafty as McCaskill is easier said than done. Newspapers have questioned Hawley’s handling of an investigation of GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, whose popularity has plummeted after a sex scandal, and a Democratic super PAC is running television ads playing up the connection.
4. Arizona — Open; GOP Sen. Jeff Flake retiring (4)
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema remains her party’s best recruit of the cycle, even if her tendency to side with Republicans on some key votes will give progressives a consistent case of agita. While a race between her and GOP Rep. Martha McSally would be a toss-up in a state Trump won, Arizona remains this high in the rankings because of the distinct possibility that McSally could lose. The congresswoman is running in a primary against former state Sen. Kelli Ward and controversial former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Sinema has also established a distinct money advantage, with $5.1 million in the bank and no primary to drain her resources.
5. North Dakota — Heitkamp running for reelection (5)
While Cramer isn’t a perfect recruit — the GOP spent much of last summer and fall looking for alternatives, and Democrats can attack him for paying family members out of his campaign account — Republicans remain firmly convinced he can defeat Heitkamp, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll this month showing him with a small lead over the incumbent Democrat. Heitkamp starts the general election with $4.4 million in the bank, a strong amount for a state where airtime is cheap. Cramer was promised plenty of fundraising help during his recruitment: Energy executive Harold Hamm is leading his finance committee. Heitkamp hopes her unique brand — she votes with Trump nearly 50 percent of the time — can carry her over the finish line.
6. West Virginia — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin running for reelection (6)
While the ranking is the same, Manchin appears a bit safer than he was at the start of the year. Why? The emergence of Don Blankenship, the ex-con coal baron infamous for his role in the deaths of 29 miners at the Upper Big Branch Mine, as a force in the GOP primary. If Blankenship wins the primary, Manchin’s path to reelection could get a lot easier than if he had to face either Rep. Evan Jenkins or state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. But Manchin is still one of the last Democrats standing in a state that’s lurched dramatically to the right, and Republicans are preparing to peck him to death with attacks on his votes and business holdings.
7. Florida — Nelson running for reelection (8)
Scott’s likely entrance into this race makes it a top-tier contest, but Florida’s status as a true swing state, along with public polling showing Nelson in the lead, keeps Florida from moving further up the list. Nelson has $8 million on hand, but he’ll still need plenty of help from outside groups in what’s likely to be one of the most expensive Senate races in history. Scott is entering the race at his first true moment of public popularity in his political career. Democrats are pushing news stories designed to chip away at that popularity, but it’s hard for earned media to move numbers in a state with a multitude of media markets.
8. Wisconsin — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin running for reelection (10)
Trump won Wisconsin by a smaller margin than he won some other states on this list, but Wisconsin is rising because of the money already directed at Baldwin, arguably the only unabashed progressive among the Democrats in our top 10. The Koch brothers network of conservative donors and GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein have targeted the race, pouring millions into attack ads targeting Baldwin. Baldwin, like other Democratic incumbents, has two advantages: a substantial lead in hard money ($6.9 million in the bank), and a nasty primary between businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson and state Sen. Leah Vukmir.
9. Montana — Democratic Sen. Jon Tester running for reelection (9)
Tester is far from safe — he’s ultimately running for reelection in a state Trump won by 21 percentage points. But Democrats feel better about him than some of their other incumbents: He’s had more than a dozen pieces of legislation signed into law by the president, and Montanans have a strong and recent history of ticket-splitting. Tester also continues to fundraise well, although the GOP primary to face him — state Auditor Matt Rosendale, businessman and veteran Troy Downing and former judge Russell Fagg are the main contenders — has been peaceful.
10. Ohio — Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown running for reelection (7)
Brown, like Tester, shouldn’t be considered safe. The replacement of state Treasurer Josh Mandel — who dropped out because of his wife’s illness — with Rep. Jim Renacci has given Brown a temporary boost in public polling because Mandel was much better known than Renacci, who represents just 1/16th of the state. A key question will be how well Renacci fundraises in the first quarter, and whether he’s able to put away businessman Mike Gibbons, who is challenging him in the GOP primary, with relatively little effort. Brown has nearly $10 million in the bank.
Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi (special), Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) appears safe, but one of the GOP contenders to face her has a compelling biography (Iraq War veteran John James), and the other one is rich and willing to spend his money (Sandy Pensler). In Minnesota, freshly appointed Sen. Tina Smith ‘s first fundraising period will be closely watched. In Mississippi, Democrats have recruited former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, but it remains unclear whether he’ll be able to capitalize on a potential matchup with state Sen. Chris McDaniel in a runoff, or whether GOP Sen.-designate Cindy Hyde-Smith will consolidate support in the coming months. Republicans are unimpressed with Rep. Lou Barletta’s run against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. Former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen seems ready to mount a strong challenge to Rep. Marsha Blackburn, but Blackburn now faces a clear shot for the GOP nomination after Sen. Bob Corker’s aborted un-retirement. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) continues to run an energetic campaign, but unseating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will be an uphill fight.
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