Washington Post (Plum Line)
By Greg Sargent
April 2, 2014
The
two big political news stories of the moment — the new Paul Ryan
budget, and the successful attainment of seven million Obamacare signups
— have the potential to reshape,
at least to some degree, the battle for the Senate.
By
my count, eight House Republicans are currently running for Senate —
and will likely have the Ryan budget hanging around their necks, if and
when they support it, and
if Dems are then able to make it a liability for them.
The
DSCC is hoping to use the Ryan budget to amplify its ongoing effort to
tie GOP candidates to the Koch brothers, by labeling the Ryan blueprint
the “Koch Budget.” The
DSCC will be sending state-targeted releases out today hitting all the
GOP Senate candidates for supporting a budget that is “bought and paid
for by Charles and David Koch,” and “forces seniors to pay more while
providing tax breaks for billionaires like the
Kochs.” The release says:
The
Koch brothers are spending millions across the country each month, more
than $30 million so far this cycle, to buy themselves a U.S. Senate
that supports a budget
that benefits billionaires like the Kochs and forces seniors to foot
the bill. Across the country, GOP Senate candidates support a “Koch
Budget” that is bought and paid for by Charles and David Koch and would
force over 45 million seniors to choose between
traditional Medicare and a voucher program in order to provide tax
breaks for billionaires.
House
Republicans running for Senate include: Tom Cotton against Senator Mark
Pryor; Bill Cassidy against Senator Mary Landrieu, Cory Gardner against
Senator Mark Udall;
Steve Daines against appointed Senator John Walsh; Shelley Moore Capito
for the open Dem seat in West Virginia; and Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey,
and Jack Kingston vying to face Michelle Nunn in Georgia. So we may end
up with House Republicans who have supported
the Ryan budget as the Senate nominees in six states.
The
Ryan budget’s deep cuts to the safety net and other programs (such as
Pell Grants and education and job training), and its transformation of
Medicare, are perhaps
best summarized by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ Bob
Greenstein, who describes his blueprint as a “path to adversity” for
“tens of millions” that “claims to boost opportunity and reduce poverty
while flagrantly doing the reverse.” Greenstein
concludes: “Despite Chairman Ryan’s rhetoric on fighting poverty and
boosting opportunity, no fair-minded observer can claim that his
proposals actually reflect those priorities — or sugarcoat their harsh
impact on tens of millions of low- and moderate-income
Americans.”
As
Jonathan Weisman puts it, the Ryan budget is basically a “political
manifesto” designed to satisfy conservative House members who “demanded a
document they could take
to their strongly Republican districts.” But if Dems have their way,
they will be able to use it in statewide races, where the electorate may
be somewhat more diverse, to galvanize core supporters and draw a sharp
economic contrast in the eyes of swing constituencies.
The
Dem effort to tie the Ryan budget to the Koch brothers is another
reminder that the Dem approach is not simply about tarring Republicans
with faceless plutocrats.
Rather, it’s all about dramatizing GOP policy priorities, which are
animated by a continuing obsession with 47 percenterism and unremitting
hostility to government and the safety net that will hurt working and
middle class Americans. The argument is that GOP
priorities would set back efforts to increase economic mobility and
protect ordinary Americans from economic harm, while exacerbating an
economic status quo that is rigged against them and for the one percent.
No question, the map for Dems is so daunting that
nothing may be enough to stave off major losses. But the Ryan blueprint
could help Dems make their central argument.
*
DEMS WILL CONTRAST OBAMACARE WITH RYAN BUDGET: Meanwhile, it’s good to
hear, via the New York Times, that Congressional Dems who had been
running scared over Obamacare
now think the seven million enrollments allow them to attack
Republicans more directly on the consequences of repeal and contrast the
law’s expansion of coverage with Paul Ryan’s proposed deep cuts to the
safety net. However:
“I
never said that we would run on it,” Ms. Pelosi said in an interview.
“That wasn’t why we passed it. But we are not running away from it.” In
the end, she said, “elections
are always about jobs and the economy.”
Dems
have an opening to hit Republicans hard over the consequences of
repeal, but that is more about fighting the issue to a draw and
broadening out these races to other
issues, particularly the Ryan budget and pocketbook issues like the
minimum wage.
*
SENATE REPUBLICANS WORRY ABOUT GOP’S OBAMACARE OBSESSION: The Hill
reports that GOP Senators are increasingly worried that the party’s
single-minded obsession with Obamacare
won’t be enough in 2014. Here’s Senator Dean Heller, who has criticized
the House GOP for failing to extend unemployment benefits, even as it
continues to push for repeal:
“It’s
my opinion that the Affordable Care Act is going to play in this
election, but I don’t think it’s the main issue. I think the main issue
is going to be the economy
and jobs. If we have solutions and answers on the economy and jobs, I
think that the Affordable Care Act will take a back seat to it. If we
think we’re going to win or lose the majority based on one single piece
of legislation … I think we’re mistaken.”
Republicans
have adopted a strategy of doing little in the way of policy because it
could upset a dynamic in which Obamacare alone will supposedly deliver a
glorious victory,
with no indication that they even considered the possibility that it
could work out tolerably well and recede as an issue.
*
OBAMACARE GETS BIG HEADLINES: Mike Allen summarizes the headlines that
greeted the health law’s successful achievement of seven million
signups:
USA Today cover, below fold: “Health care’s comeback kid: Obama exults in 7M enrollment mark” …
WashPost,
top of col. 1: “7.1 million sign up for health plan by deadline: Late
surge meets original forecast, defies more recent skepticism” …
NYT A1: “Obama Claims Victory in Push For Insurance” …
L.A.
Times 2-col. lead: “Health law overcomes big hurdle: The Affordable
Care Act enrolls 7.1 million; the GOP, whose base is less likely to
benefit, remains opposed.”
I
doubt this will be enough to meaningfully shift opinion on the law, but
it’s plausible that it will now fade from the headlines. Not that this
will put the slightest
dent in GOP certainty that the health law alone will deliver he Senate.
*
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT OBAMACARE ENROLLMENT NUMBERS? Glenn Kessler has a
wonky and useful dive into what we really know and don’t know about how
many people are benefitting
from Obamacare who previously weren’t. Notably, Kessler says Obama is
probably on safe ground in asserting that 7.1 million people “signed up”
for private insurance under the law, though many unknowns remain, such
as how many were previously insured and how
many paid premiums.
I
would only add that — all the spin aside — enrollment numbers don’t
really tell us much about the law’s long term prospects, which will turn
heavily on how dozens of
individual marketplaces fare in the states.
*
JINDAL TO UNVEIL “ALTERNATIVE” TO OBAMACARE: The Post scoops that Bobby
Jindal, as is set to unveil a new “alternative” to Obamacare today, as
part of his efforts to
position himself as a 2016 presidential contender. It would repeal the
law and replace it — prepare to be shocked — by longtime GOP staples
like block-granting Medicaid and allowing insurance companies to sell
across state lines.
“There
is a void out there,” says Jindal. “I absolutely think the country
deserves a debate, and if Republicans are going to succeed, we better
have more than bumper stickers.”
Take it as a positive that Republicans increasingly realize repeal
alone is a nonstarter and that they need to be seen offering
alternatives.
*
MINIMUM WAGE AS MOTIVATOR OF VOTING: Obamacare foes on twitter are
already very excited about the new Quinnipiac poll finding that approval
of the health law is at 41-55,
and that 40 percent say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who
supports it. But the poll didn’t test repeal — the actual GOP stance —
and it also finds that 50 percent are more inclined to vote for a
candidate who supports the minimum wage hike, which
Dems will campaign on this year.
*
WHY REPUBLICANS WON’T SUPPORT IMMIGRATION REFORM: Another interesting
tidbit from the new Quinnipiac poll: While 39 percent of Americans say
they are “less likely” to
support a candidate who backs a path to citizenship, an overwhelming 60
percent of Republicans falls into that category.
*
AND WAR OVER MEDICAID EXPANSION HEATS UP IN VIRGINIA: The standoff in
Virginia continues over whether the state will adopt its own version of
the Medicaid expansion,
with Governor Terry McAuliffe (who campaigned on the idea and won) and
state Democrats continuing to insist they will not support any state
budget that doesn’t include one. Conservatives appear equally adamant in
opposition, and the standoff could produce
a government shutdown.
Achieving
the Medicaid expansion in Virginia would expand coverage to as many as
400,000 people and constitute a significant victory for Obamacare.
What else?
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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