Wall Street Journal
By Gerald F. Seib
March 31, 2014
Presidential
campaigns are long and complicated, and getting more so, but they all
start in the same way: Hopefuls jockey for position in a handful of
lanes that open
up for specific types of candidates their party seems willing to
consider.
That
is precisely what is happening now as Republicans begin serious
contemplation of the 2016 presidential race. The party is changing and
soul-searching after two straight
presidential defeats, and its coming nominating contest may well be the
most crowded and wide-open in a generation.
To
sort through that forming crowd, think of the potential candidates as
falling into five different lanes. When the early field is seen that
way, three observations emerge.
Former
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is rapidly becoming the hot ticket in the
Establishment Lane—the one from which the GOP traditionally picks its
nominee. Sen. Rand Paul of
Kentucky is emerging as the most intriguing possibility in the Newbie
Lane, the one filling up with a set of unconventional newcomers
promising to shake up not just the race but the party. Yet Sen. Marco
Rubio, another Newbie, may have done himself the most
good in the first months of 2014.
All
this comes to mind because a handful of potential Republican
presidential contenders gathered over the weekend in Nevada to meet and
romance big donors, a sign that
the vetting process is getting serious. So, with the help of Scott
Reed, who ran Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign and remains active
in Republican campaigns, let's try to categorize the early field:
THE
ESTABLISHMENT LANE: This is the lane for candidates that the party's
traditional leaders and influential big-money crowd like the most. There
are two obvious contenders
in it right now: Florida's Mr. Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, as the party's latest vice-presidential
nominee, is the third possible runner in this lane, though it is unclear
whether he would prefer to stay in Congress
to run the powerful Ways and Means Committee.
The
party's big donors and establishment figures love Mr. Christie, but
they worry his problems with the traffic scandal in New Jersey aren't
going away.
They
increasingly are enamored of Mr. Bush. Mr. Reed cites two big questions
about a man who hails from the party's most prominent family, but who
has been out of electoral
politics for seven years: "Has he crossed the threshold that he wants
to run, and can he deal with this new party?"
THE
NEWBIE LANE: This may be the most interesting group, populated with
figures with the potential to yank the party away from its establishment
moorings. Messrs. Paul
and Rubio, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, are appealing to less-traditional
audiences: Hispanics, libertarians, the young, African-Americans, tea
partiers.
Mr.
Cruz has the potential to raise a lot of money, and he instantly
excites the party's most active wing, the tea party. He is trying to lay
claim to the Ronald Reagan
mantle.
Mr.
Rubio brings instant appeal to Hispanics. But he also has methodically
rolled out a series of policy speeches and proposals to show that he is a
serious thinker who
can both move beyond his early focus on the divisive issue of an
immigration overhaul and appeal to the party's national-security hawks.
His problem is that it will be hard to run if Mr. Bush, his political
mentor, also gets in.
Mr.
Paul is the least conventional, having reached out to potential GOP
voters in places as diverse as Berkeley, Calif., and historically black
Howard University. His
libertarian streak and his calls for pulling in America's horns abroad
scare some party regulars but appeal to many younger voters.
THE
GOVERNORS LANE: Republican successes at the state level in the past
decade have produced a set of governors with national standing. Texas'
Rick Perry, Wisconsin's
Scott Walker, Ohio's John Kasich and Louisiana's Bobby Jindal all are
starting to jockey for position.
"That
is the category to watch, because I think Republicans are going to be
looking for somebody from outside of Washington this time," says Mr.
Reed.
THE
CONGRESSIONAL LANE: Mr. Ryan also fits in this lane, along with Ohio
Sen. Rob Portman, who figured in 2012 speculation as well. There also
could be a couple of newcomers:
South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Rep. Mike Rogers, the Intelligence
Committee chairman who just announced he is retiring from Congress. The
problem for these folks is simple: They hail from a wildly unpopular
institution.
THE
EVANGELICAL LANE: Since at least 1988, there has been space on the GOP
spectrum for at least one serious contender with ties to the evangelical
community. Two men
seem most likely to fill this lane: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Both have been there
before—and sound as if they'd like to try again.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
No comments:
Post a Comment