New York Times
By Jonathan Martin
May 5, 2015
Hillary
Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news
about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state
and the practices
of her family’s foundation, an indication that she is starting her
second presidential bid with an unusual durability among Democratic
voters.
Americans
now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and more see her as a strong
leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny
about her ethics, a New
York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say
the nation is ready to elect a woman president.
Republican
voters showed the most openness to considering Senator Marco Rubio of
Florida and former Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Jeb Bush of
Florida among their
party’s presidential contenders, the survey found.
Mrs.
Clinton remains a polarizing figure — nearly the same percentage of
Americans view her positively as negatively — but her favorability
rating has improved by nine
percentage points since the disclosure in late March that she did not
use a government email account as secretary of state.
See
what Americans think about Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Republican
candidates and issues like the health care law and same-sex marriage.
And
the number of Americans who think Mrs. Clinton has strong qualities of
leadership has risen by eight percentage points, to 65 percent from 57
percent, in that period.
Still, Mrs. Clinton begins this campaign with fewer voters saying she
possesses such qualities than did in July 2007, near the outset of her
first presidential bid.
Mrs.
Clinton has one primary opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont,
and more Democrats are likely to enter the race, but her party seems
particularly unbothered
by questions relating to the emails and to the foundation that she, her
husband and their daughter oversee.
While
roughly 48 percent of Americans say Mrs. Clinton is honest and
trustworthy, about four of five Democrats think she has those traits —
and about the same numbers
of Democrats say she shares the values most Americans try to live by.
Fifty-two
percent of Democrats said they knew nothing or very little about the
Clinton Foundation, and only 10 percent said foreign donations to the
foundation affected
Mrs. Clinton’s decisions while she was the nation’s top diplomat. Just 9
percent of Democratic voters said they would not consider voting for
Mrs. Clinton.
”I
think the whole thing is political and it’s going to wash away
eventually,” Herbert Levengard, 83, a Democratic retiree from Maryland,
said in a follow-up interview.
“There are always going to be people who mess around and look for
things to yell about, but I don’t care.”
Mrs.
Clinton is also helped in her own party by the enduring popularity of
former President Bill Clinton: Seventy-six percent of Democrats have a
favorable view of him,
and only 4 percent view him unfavorably.
Democrats
also assume that Mr. Clinton — who memorably said in his 1992
presidential bid that he and Mrs. Clinton represented “two for the price
of one” — would play a
substantial role were Mrs. Clinton to win the White House. Seven in 10
Democratic voters said he would have a great deal or some influence on
Mrs. Clinton if she became president.
If
Democrats seem largely content with the prospect of another Clinton in
the White House, Republicans do not seem quite as certain about electing
a third member of the
Bush family president.
Nearly
three-quarters of Republican voters view George W. Bush favorably, but
almost 70 percent have not yet formed an opinion of his brother Jeb, a
likely presidential
candidate.
The
Republican primary is largely unformed, with many Republicans
indicating openness to a variety of candidates in a large and still
growing field.
There
is positive news for Jeb Bush, though. Forty-nine percent of
conservative Republican voters think his stance on the issues is about
right.
While
Mr. Bush has faced questions about whether he is conservative enough to
win a Republican primary, only 22 percent of Republican voters said his
views were not conservative
enough. Further, 60 percent of Republican voters said having the right
experience was more important in a presidential candidate, while only 27
percent said they thought offering fresh ideas was more valuable.
What
could also help Mr. Bush — along with the other governors or former
governors seeking the G.O.P. nomination — is that 73 percent of
Republican voters said they preferred
candidates with experience outside Washington.
“I
would really prefer a candidate who has been a governor,” said Vinton
Ernest, an 85-year-old Republican retiree from Las Vegas. “Running a
state is just as difficult
as running a government. It’s just multiplied when you’re running the
country.”
Still,
Mr. Rubio, 43, a first-term senator, seems to have more room to gain in
popularity than Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Bush: Only 17 percent of
Republicans said they would
not consider supporting him, while 26 percent said they would not back
Mr. Huckabee and 23 percent ruled out supporting Mr. Bush.
Republican
voters were least resistant to Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin: Only 13
percent said they would not consider voting for him. At the opposite
extreme, 42 percent
of Republicans said they would not consider voting for Gov. Chris
Christie of New Jersey.
Over
all, Democrats enter the next presidential campaign with a better image
than Republicans. Forty-three percent of Americans said they had a
favorable opinion of the
Democratic Party while only 29 percent said the same of the Republican
Party.
But
as Democrats seek to retain the White House for a third consecutive
term, many Americans are dissatisfied with the country’s direction.
Sixty-three percent of Americans
said the country had gotten off track, and 66 percent said the economy
was growing worse or staying the same.
The
candidates will make their case to an increasingly polarized
electorate: Two-thirds of Democrats support legalizing same-sex
marriage, while about the same percentage
of Republicans do not think same-sex marriages should be legal.
In
addition, 69 percent of Republicans say small-business owners who
provide wedding-related services should be able to refuse, on the basis
of their religious belief,
such services to same-sex couples. But 58 percent of Democrats think
the businesses should be required to provide those services.
On
immigration, 46 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants should
be required to leave the United States, while only 16 percent of
Democrats said the same. And
while 71 percent of Democrats said illegal immigrants should be able to
stay in the country and apply for citizenship, just 38 percent of
Republicans said they should be allowed to remain in America and pursue citizenship.
The
poll was conducted by telephone, on landlines and cellphones
nationwide, from April 30 to May 3 with 1,027 adults, of whom 868 were
registered to vote. The margin
of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all
adults and registered voters.
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