Can Hillary Clinton Win Over Latino Voters?

Washington Post

By Anne Gearan

May 4, 2015

Can Hillary Clinton win over Latino voters? 

Cesar Vargas has a message for Hillary Rodham Clinton as she blames Republicans for a broken immigration system and seeks Hispanic support: We’ve heard it all before.

President Obama promised an immigration overhaul that hasn’t come, said Vargas, co-director of Dream Action Coalition, an advocacy group for young Latinos. And while Obama has made some progress on slowing deportations and other issues, he said, Clinton will have to show how she will get farther.

“That type of rhetoric is already stale, especially to the Latino community,” Vargas said. “It’s like a piece of stale bread.”

Clinton, who will travel to Nevada on Tuesday for a campaign appearance aimed at Hispanics, faces politically tricky terrain on immigration and citizenship issues. She will be under pressure to declare much of the Obama immigration agenda a failure, and she also faces a Republican field with more potential appeal to Hispanic voters than in the past.

Clinton’s early and frequent attention to immigration issues in her three weeks as a 2016 candidate suggests that she has an eye on former Florida governor Jeb Bush in particular. Bush had generally good relations with Hispanic leaders as governor, is married to a Mexican-born woman and speaks fluent Spanish. Unlike some of his likely Republican primary opponents, Bush has also avoided taking positions that many Hispanics see as anti-immigration.

Vargas was among several activists and Hispanic leaders who spoke to Clinton political director Amanda Renteria ahead of Clinton’s trip to Nevada. His organization was also included on a conference call that Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta held with Hispanic leaders shortly after she announced her campaign last month.

“We saw President Obama, who promised the world to us and had a record number of deportations — more than any other president in history,” Vargas said. “If a timid President Obama won’t do it, what would a bold Hillary Clinton do?”

Clinton will meet with young immigrants who, like Vargas, are among the estimated 1.7 million undocumented immigrants eligible for conditional temporary or permanent residency under an Obama executive order.

The 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA, brushed aside years of congressional stalemate to grant de facto residency to qualified immigrants who were brought to the country as children. It could be undone by a future president, however, so Hispanic leaders are urging both Democratic and Republican candidates to promise to extend the protection.

For Vargas, who came to the United States at age 5 from Mexico, DACA meant he could live and work openly in New York City without fear of deportation. But the law school graduate may not be able to gain admission to the New York State Bar or serve in the military unless he gains full legal residency or citizenship.

Clinton has already indicated her support for DACA and has said comprehensive immigration reform is needed. But she has not articulated a full set of immigration proposals or said how she would get around staunch Republican opposition in Congress.

Comprehensive immigration reform could open a path to legal status or potential citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented people living in the United States, the majority of them Hispanic.

Clinton’s session Tuesday at a Las Vegas high school is meant to showcase Clinton’s commitment to Latino young people, part of the unique demographic coalition that supported Obama over her in 2008.

“Clinton will focus on reforming the broken immigration system so we can keep families together,” her campaign said in announcing the visit, her third campaign trip since announcing her candidacy last month.

“She will join a roundtable of young Nevadans who are personally affected by our broken immigration system,” the campaign statement said. “She will discuss how reform could strengthen families and community.”

Like Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada holds one of the first presidential selection contests. The Nevada primary in 2016 will pose the first test of Clinton’s strength among Hispanic voters and her ability to re-create the winning Obama coalition of young people and minorities. About 1 in 4 Nevada residents is Hispanic.

Hispanics have voted largely Democratic for years, but concern that Clinton could be vulnerable to Bush among Hispanics may be part of the reason for Clinton’s early focus on immigration and citizenship. She has talked about immigration in her public speeches to a degree unusual for previous Democratic candidates, including herself.

“If he’s the nominee he will present the most compelling alternative to Hillary Clinton, and that could be a serious threat to her” among Hispanic voters, said Brent Wilkes, executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens, or LULAC.

Two other GOP candidates, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), are both of Cuban descent.

So far, Clinton’s policy positions and remarks on immigration have mostly served to draw a sharp divide between her and the more conservative Republicans seeking to oppose her next year.

“There are those who offer themselves as leaders who would deport mothers working to give their children a better life, rather than risk the ire of talk radio,” Clinton said at a women’s policy conference last month.

Clinton has also shifted her position to support the granting of driving licenses to undocumented people — an issue that hurt her during the 2008 election after she seemed intentionally vague.

“Hillary supports state policies to provide driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants. This is consistent with her support for the president’s executive action,” the Clinton campaign said last month.

In Nevada, undocumented residents can get a “driver’s authorization card” if they pass the regular driver’s test, a measure designed to make the roads safer because drivers know the laws and get insurance. But many have been flunking the test, and an initiative funded by the conservative Koch brothers is offering free tutorials along with conservative political evangelism.

The 2016 GOP field is split over immigration policy. Bush has suggested that he might support a path to citizenship for undocumented people, while Cruz has taken the firmest stance against easing any rules for those here illegally.

Two years ago, Rubio was at the forefront of efforts in the Senate to pass legislation that would have opened a path to citizenship. He has since disowned that proposal.

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com