What Hillary Clinton Would Need to Do to Win

New York Times

By Amy Chozick

April 12, 2015

What Hillary Clinton Would Need to Do to Win 

The Coalition

Mrs. Clinton can expect little if any opposition in the Democratic primaries. In the general election, she will need to win over the so-called Obama coalition of blacks and young, college-educated white voters who supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But she will also need to maintain her base of support among white working-class women while battling it out for college-educated women in the suburbs. White working-class men have drifted away from the Democratic Party, but Mrs. Clinton has appeal among those who still harbor warm feelings for Bill Clinton. Hispanics overwhelmingly supported Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries, but overhauling the nation’s immigration laws has become a more divisive issue since then, and some Hispanics wonder how committed Mrs. Clinton is to it. To win crucial states like Florida and Colorado, she will need to convince them that she is on their side.

Ohio will again be the classic battleground, but changing demographics have put other states in play, including Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Pennsylvania, where Mrs. Clinton won the 2008 primary by nine points, will be a bellwether. Michigan and New Hampshire will also be hotly contested. Mrs. Clinton’s team has hinted that she will also invest in potential long shots like North Carolina and, depending on resources, Georgia, with its growing population of younger black and Latino voters. And as much as they will play down the importance of Florida — especially if Jeb Bush becomes the Republican nominee — the Sunshine State will be critical to a Clinton victory.

The Message

Expect a nearly constant emphasis on leaving a better country to voters’ children and grandchildren. Mrs. Clinton will weave in her own experiences as a mother and grandmother to try to persuade voters that she is best positioned to address income inequality and to aid the middle class. Her economic message will highlight issues that resonate with women in particular, including a higher minimum wage, paid family and medical leave, early childhood education, and affordable child care.

Why She Will Win

Mrs. Clinton has nearly 100 percent name recognition as well as a built-in base of support among working-class women. Republicans will need to catch up, and they face a potentially brutal primary season in which they will be pushed to the right on issues like immigration and education, which could drive independents into Mrs. Clinton’s arms in a general election. But demographics are the biggest obstacle for Republicans: Unless the nominee can win over Hispanics and make inroads with women and young voters, Mrs. Clinton starts with a significant edge thanks to population changes nationally and, particularly, in many of the likely battleground states. Mrs. Clinton should also enjoy an enormous financial advantage in a campaign that is expected to cost her $2.5 billion, with the help of “super PAC” donations and nearly universal support within the Democratic establishment.

Why She Won't

Mrs. Clinton was similarly well positioned when she declared her candidacy in 2007, only to be defeated by a surprisingly strong opponent, Mr. Obama. The biggest concerns now, by contrast, are internal: Can she avoid the managerial and strategic dysfunction that plagued her campaign in the 2008 primaries? Can her younger operatives, who rely on data and analytics, be empowered even if some in the Clintons’ old guard of friends and advisers favor a more traditional approach? Can she appeal to young people, and inspire blacks who were energized by Mr. Obama? Above all, can she represent the future more than the past?

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