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Eli Kantor is a labor, employment and immigration law attorney. He has been practicing labor, employment and immigration law for more than 36 years. He has been featured in articles about labor, employment and immigration law in the L.A. Times, Business Week.com and Daily Variety. He is a regular columnist for the Daily Journal. Telephone (310)274-8216; eli@elikantorlaw.com. For more information, visit beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com and and beverlyhillsemploymentlaw.com

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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Head Start for Jeb Bush Campaign Is Part of Scott Walker’s Plan

New York Times
By Patrick Healy and Nicholas Confessore
April 27, 2015

It is a gamble at once audacious and born of necessity: Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a likely Republican candidate for president, has put campaign plans in motion that cede early momentum to his chief rival, Jeb Bush, in favor of beating Mr. Bush and other opponents with a long-game strategy designed to achieve financial and political success next winter.

The strategy, described in interviews with advisers and donors to Mr. Walker, is an acknowledgment that despite leading in some early polls and earning praise from party kingmakers, Mr. Walker faces serious obstacles — money, readiness, stature — to becoming his party’s standard-bearer.

Advisers said Mr. Walker, conceding that he has no hope of raising more than Mr. Bush this spring and summer, is devoting considerable time instead to addressing a weakness that could derail him with a single gaffe no matter how much some donors love him: his lack of depth on issues facing a president, especially national security. He is attending near daily policy briefings and working on Wisconsin’s next state budget, while his team is quietly recruiting volunteer fund-raisers, known as bundlers. They now number about 50 in 30 states — a shadow corps ready to compete with Mr. Bush as soon as Mr. Walker officially announces his candidacy, which is likely to be in June.

At the same time, Mr. Walker — who enthusiastically enjoys fund-raising, his advisers say — is personally courting megadonors like Todd Ricketts, who will back Mr. Walker if he runs, and David H. and Charles G. Koch, the conservative billionaires, according to the advisers and donors, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to maintain their access to confidential campaign planning. Several top-tier Republican donors joined Mr. Walker for a dinner last week at the Ricketts apartment in the Time Warner Center in Manhattan, including David Koch; Mr. Ricketts and his father, Joe; the investor Roger Hertog; and the supermarket magnate John Catsimatidis.

In emphasizing their long-range strategy, Mr. Walker’s advisers are seeking to lower expectations ahead of the first fund-raising totals for most candidates and their “super PACs,” which will be made public in mid-July. They also want to minimize expectations at this stage for Mr. Walker as a head-to-head competitor against Mr. Bush, who talks about policy with greater ease and confidence.

Advisers to Mr. Walker do not see any choice: Mr. Bush is raising money prodigiously, telling donors at a private gathering in Miami last weekend that his political organization was set to break political fund-raising records. Mr. Walker believes his best shot is to peak as a well-prepared, solidly financed candidate as Iowa, New Hampshire and other states start voting in February and March.

“It’s clear Bush has the most bundlers today,” said Jonathan Burkan, a New York financial adviser and fund-raiser for Mr. Walker. “But it’s only April. And Walker has enough of them to do what he needs to do to win the nomination.”

Mr. Walker’s planning reflects how thoroughly the rise of super PACs has changed presidential politics. Instead of formally joining the field and building a large network of medium-size donors, Mr. Walker and other likely candidates are using the early months to court small circles of wealthy patrons who can write six- and seven-figure checks to outside groups supporting their future campaigns.

The Walker team’s top goal is to have enough funds to survive early rounds of anticipated attack ads from the pro-Bush super PAC. Mr. Bush’s political organization is expected to raise as much as $100 million during the first half of 2015, while Mr. Walker’s allies believe they can bring in at least $25 million by the end of June.

Of that total, the Walker team has already raised $5 million for a political committee, Our American Revival, that houses senior campaign-staff-in-waiting, advisers say. Many of the donors Mr. Walker is courting backed him in his 2012 recall battle and 2014 re-election campaign, races in which he became a hero to conservatives for his successful fights against labor unions.

The governor’s bet is that Mr. Bush, who has spent most of this year courting donors, will fail to connect with grass-roots conservatives, and that Mr. Walker’s executive experience in Wisconsin will contrast favorably against the three senators in the race: Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida.

These are big assumptions and risks, but Mr. Walker is confident enough that he has taken to telling people that he is not only the first choice of his own supporters, but the second choice of most other candidates’ supporters.

“It’s a great thing when you have a big field that eventually will not be as big,” said Chart Westcott, a Dallas businessman and Walker supporter. “There’s a lot of love in Texas for different candidates, but Governor Walker has a unique ability to unite the party — evangelicals and libertarians, the establishment and the Tea Party. That’s the appeal he’s used to make inroads in Texas.”

The governor’s allies expect the new pro-Walker super PAC, Unintimidated, to raise between $50 million and $75 million by the end of the 2016 nominating contest.

Mr. Walker’s strategy is, on one level, an attempt to try to avoid the fate of Republicans like Tim Pawlenty — another well-regarded Midwestern governor of a purple state — who withdrew less than five months after joining the 2012 race, short of cash and unable to break through to voters in Iowa.


The key question is how many of the biggest conservative donors will offer Mr. Walker help in the next few months.

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