Spoiler alert: NYC mayor could complicate Dem plans to retake the House

NEW YORK — Democrats are already pouring millions of dollars into reclaiming the New York City suburbs after a midterm drubbing last year that cost them control of the House. But there’s one thing they can’t plan for: New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a wild card from their own party who is once again going against the political grain. Many fellow party members, especially those on the far-left, believe Adams amplified concerns over crime last year by highlighting changes to New York state bail laws, thereby boosting the candidacies of four Republicans who flipped seats north of the city and on Long Island. The mayor has since softened some of his rhetoric on public safety, but at the same time he has been stirring up resentment in these same districts with a program to bus asylum-seekers from Latin America to hotels around the state — bringing a divisive national issue to the doorstep of Empire State swing voters while criticizing the White House over its immigration policy. Unlike in other parts of the country where a big city mayor might have little sway over suburban House races, Adams commands an influential bully pulpit. He is heavily covered by a robust media market that extends well into the contested suburbs, often appears on national television to discuss divisive topics and is not shy when he believes the Democratic Party should be following his lead on issues like crime and immigration. Because three of the four districts in question have been rated tossups by Cook Political Report — meaning a slight nudge could tip them one way or the other — some Democrats are again concerned Adams and the broader Democratic Party are pushing in opposite directions. “The mayor is making the same dangerous mistake on immigration as he made on public safety,” said Theo Oshiro, co-executive director for Make the Road New York and its affiliated political arm, a left-leaning nonprofit that is a member of the Working Families Party. “He is essentially fueling this right-wing narrative of asylum-seekers as a disaster for the city.” Others, however, are hoping that Adams could be an asset this time around if he and the party can get more in sync on messaging. “I think there is a way to stress the importance of crime while also doing it proactively, and if [Adams] can make that little turn it could be a very useful tool for Democrats,” said a House campaign aide who was granted anonymity to discuss strategy with POLITICO. “The things he says get covered from NY-1 up to NY-19. And what he says is important — especially for someone who holds an almost daily type of news briefing.” But there is no guarantee that will happen. Eric Adams’ mixed bag of crime stats BY ANNA GRONEWOLD AND JOE ANUTA AND ZACHARY SCHERMELE The public safety election Crime has been a perennial election issue. But 2022 was different. After a historic drop during the pandemic, seven major crimes tracked by the NYPD began to increase, while New Yorkers’ concerns about the issue rose far more dramatically, outpacing historic norms. Conservative candidates and editorial pages placed the blame on the New York Legislature’s 2019 decision to end cashless bail for most low-level crimes. And as the midterms drew closer, Adams, a Democrat and retired NYPD captain, was among the loudest voices calling for the state to revisit these laws to curb recidivism. His position alienated him from many New York Democrats and endeared him to the GOP. And when lawmakers ultimately declined to crack open the laws for revision before the midterms, bail morphed into the marquee attack line used by the right to devastating effect. In post mortems delivered to reporters, Adams mused that if Democrats had followed his lead and spoken more frankly about public safety, the results might have been different. And going forward, a key adviser to the mayor said Adams has no plans to remove crime from the core of his political brand. “We are going to stay on that message until the city is as safe as it can possibly be,” said Frank Carone, the mayor’s former chief of staff and expected chair of his reelection effort. “That doesn’t mean that he is going to curtail that message because of pressure from the echo chamber of politics — he will continue to listen to the constituents.” A set of changing circumstances, however, could end up more closely aligning the outspoken mayor with his Democratic colleagues anyway. By 2024, Adams will have been in office for more than two years and will be on the cusp of running for reelection himself. And because he has staked his political brand on public safety, he will have more incentive to talk up gains rather than highlight the problem of crime: So far this year, murders, rapes, robberies and burglaries are all down compared to the same period the year before. In addition, a chastened Adams was notably less outspoken on the issue of bail during the state’s budget season this year. And in response to a proposal from New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, lawmakers did indeed tweak state laws in May to give judges more discretion when someone is charged with a crime. The new game plan While Carone said some of the crime statistics are moving in the right direction, he cautioned it is still too early to know where the numbers will be a year or two from now. Regardless, some National Democrats are hoping a reoriented Adams and the recent tweaks to bail laws — not to mention President Joe Biden being at the top of the ticket instead of Hochul — will take some of the focus off state policy and bring the crime conversation to the district level, where voters appear to have much more favorable views on public safety. A recent Siena poll found less than 30 percent of respondents felt crime was a serious issue in their own communities, though double that share thought it was very serious across the state. MOST READ image.jpg Trump indicted in federal classified documents probe ‘Why the hell are we doing this?’ McCarthy’s fractured leadership team faces new abortion tension Trump indictment cheat sheet: What to know about the classified documents case Gavin Newsom wants 28th Amendment for guns in U.S. Constitution DeSantis sets rivalry aside: ‘Why so zealous in pursuing Trump?’ Evan Thies, an outside advisor to Adams, said those who criticized the mayor for highlighting crime in 2022 tend to gloss over the idea that he also offered solutions — among them a surge of police in subways to combat transit crime and changing the state’s bail laws, which the Legislature ultimately did. If his colleagues were to more fully embrace his message, as Adams has said they should, they might find themselves in better electoral circumstances. “He is one of the few Democrats in the country who has taken the issue head on and has a lifetime of experience working on public safety issues, either as a police officer or civil rights advocate,” Thies said. “It gives him credibility on behalf of the party to show how a thoughtful approach to public safety can work, and why we don’t have to make the false choice between safety and justice that many in the GOP party try to force us into.” Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) — who consulted with Adams during his race — was the exception to the rule last year, winning out over his GOP challenger in a handful of contested races that were made even more chaotic by a court-ordered redistricting process. But his military background and endorsements from local law enforcement are not easily replicable, which is why Democratic strategists and their candidates are looking to go on the offensive in other ways. Lawmakers react to hazardous haze from Canada to D.C. SharePlay Video The DCCC has already purchased billboard ads accusing New York Reps. Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito, both newly elected Republicans, for failing to denounce a tweet from former President Donald Trump in which he called to defund the FBI. Nebeyatt Betre, a spokesperson for the DCCC, said the organization also plans to highlight Congressional Republicans’ efforts to rein in federal spending, which she argued would have decreased funding to various law enforcement branches. “Democrats will consistently remind New Yorkers of their commitment to keeping our communities safe, alongside their critical work of protecting families from Republicans’ deceitful and dangerous plans,” Betre said in a statement. No so fast Lawler and D’Esposito, who have not called for any decrease in FBI funding themselves, panned the billboards — and Democrats’ plans writ large. “The fact they would try to paint me as someone who wants to defund the police is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard,” said D’Esposito, who served in the NYPD for 14 years. “They are wasting their money — and quite frankly, I encourage it.” The first-term lawmaker said that many voters who formerly considered themselves Democrats on Long Island are now happy to support moderate Republicans, and that in his view nothing that has transpired over the last year would seem to change that. Case in point is a recent series of high-profile incidents showing Democrats will not have an easy time convincing voters they have a plan to deal with crime, according to former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who is running a political action committee to increase GOP turnout. While most categories of violent crimes in New York City are on the decline, Zeldin noted overall crime has remained steady as felony assaults and car thefts continue to rise, and retail thefts have caused store owners to put toothpaste and other everyday items under lock and key. “[Democrats] need to get stronger in fighting crime. They need to do more to back our men and women in law enforcement. They need to rollback pro-criminal laws and ensure prosecutors are doing their jobs and enforcing the laws,” Zeldin said. “That’s the answer. And any attempt to try to make it seem like they are doing a good job on all this, or to spin one or two crime categories … is going to upset voters even more.” The Legislature did go back to tweak bail laws. But they did not go as far as Republicans — and Adams — wanted by allowing judges to consider how dangerous someone is when deciding whether to set bail. That could end up being another black mark for Democrats. “I don’t see any significant changes,” Lawler said in an interview, suggesting the political landscape on crime has barely shifted since it dominated elections in 2022. “[State Democrats] made a minor tweak to the cashless bail law, but we still do not have a ‘dangerousness’ standard in New York, and we are the only state in the country that does not.” Adams offers to house migrants in Gracie Mansion SharePlay Video Another front in the battle Over the last year, a new issue has climbed to the fore of the public imagination. Since last summer, more than 72,000 asylum-seekers have arrived in New York City — the only major metro area in the country with a legal mandate to provide shelter to anyone who asks for it. More than 44,000 migrants are still in the city’s care. As new arrivals came by bus and plane, the city began filling up its existing shelter system. Then it began renting out hotels on an emergency basis. Now it is turning to nontraditional spaces like school gyms, warehouses and decommissioned prisons. As the city reached capacity, Adams began pointedly criticizing the White House and Biden for failing to mitigate the immigration crisis — rhetoric that dovetailed many attacks from the GOP. He then, however, started sending adult migrants to hotels elsewhere in the state to alleviate pressure on the city’s system. That had the opposite effect, sowing outrage with Republicans and injecting national border politics into communities typically at a remove from the issue. GOP incumbents defending their seats see immigration and the border as top concerns for voters — and can again point to Adams as a validator of their criticisms of the White House, even as he irks them with his bussing program. “Eric Adams has rightly been calling out the president and Democrats for failing to act on our border. And when it comes to cashless bail, he rightly called out the governor and Legislature for its failure to act,” Lawler said. “I give him credit for doing that. But it’s common sense. And by the way, that’s where most voters are.” Some Democrats, however, see the mayor’s rhetoric as a wakeup call. Matthew Hiltzik, a communications professional who was once press secretary for the state Democratic Party, said the mayor’s willingness to speak about thorny issues could help the left engage more broadly. “It’s very important for the mayor and others to be speaking hard truths,” he said. “There will be those who will disagree, but those differences of opinion can help lead to meaningful actions and solutions — while silence will just make things worse.” And one Democratic operative who was granted anonymity to speak with POLITICO said the problems Adams has been highlighting have been partially out of his control. The Biden administration, for example, has balked at authorizing expedited work permits for asylum-seekers, declined to direct migrants to different cities after they cross the border and has thus far offered New York City only a fraction of what it has spent on the crisis — though the city is set to receive an additional $104.6 million per a Wednesday announcement. And Hochul, the New York governor, has declined to take a leading role in directing the flow of migrants to restive counties across the state. In essence, while Adams is raising the issues, others in the Democratic party also bear some responsibility for fixing them. “No shit it’s not helpful. But to me that’s a loser’s mentality,” the operative said. “We could pretend there are no problems in the world. But voters are not dumb.” For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.