The Week
By Michael Brendan
January 14, 2016
Marco
Rubio is going to have a moment in tonight's debate. You can just feel
it. He and his cheerleaders have been waiting for the Rubio moment, that
instant when he begins
consolidating non-Trump support in the Republican Party and makes his
dashing rise to the top of the race. If you average the polls, he's
currently third nationally among Republicans at 11.3 percent. He's
polling third in Iowa at 13 percent. And he's just
barely ahead of Jon Kasich for second in New Hampshire at 13.2 percent.
With one of his chief antagonists, Rand Paul, excluded from the next
debate, it's finally his time. The Rubio moment is here.
Or maybe it's here again? No one is quite sure.
Two
months ago, The Indy Star declared, "The Rubio moment has arrived." At
that time he was polling third in Iowa, with 12.8 percent and third in
New Hampshire at 10.3
percent. The Star seemed to be answering The Washington Post's question
from two weeks earlier, "Has the Rubio moment arrived?" (Iowa: 10.2
percent; N.H.: 8.3 percent) and to confirm the Wall Street Journal's
contention that Rubio was moving to "seize the
moment." And yet, three weeks before that, Real Clear Politics said
that Rubio's "moment had arrived" (Iowa: 7.7 percent; N.H.: 7 percent)
And two weeks before that, Politico noticed that Marco Rubio was already
having "another moment," one reminiscent of
the moment when he was second in the national polls, in May 2015.
Since
the press last declared his latest moment, Rubio is up 0.2 percent in
Iowa and 2.9 percent in New Hampshire and down 0.5 percent nationally.
In that same time Ted
Cruz is up 14.4 percent in Iowa and 9.9 percent nationally. As of Jan.
10, the supposedly-moribund Bush campaign has gained as much support in
New Hampshire as Rubio even though the nation has been enduring two
months of Rubio moments. Oh, and we haven't even
dealt with Trump yet.
Rubio
has the sympathetic coverage and interest of the Beltway media. He has
basked in open cheering from influential conservative outlets like
National Review Online
and The Weekly Standard. He's collecting endorsements from conservative
congressmen. He and his allies have spent an enormous amount of money —
second only to pro-Jeb Bush groups — trying to blunt the rise of Chris
Christie, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz. And
yet every poll for months in the first two nominating contents has him
between 10 and 14 percent. He's had 15 moments in the media over the
past three months. And 15 weeks of same in the polls.
Maybe
we should all hold off on declaring the coming good fortune for Marco
Rubio unless and until the RNC rewrites the rules to award the
nomination to the candidate
who thrashes wildly while remaining in third place the longest.
And
definitely don't pay attention to the fact that Marco Rubio's fans, who
had spent many golden Rubio-moments exulting in their man's triumph
over his former mentor,
are now whining to the press about the funny ads coming from Right to
Rise, a Jeb Bush-aligned Super PAC.
"People
around him have just reached a point of pure anger," said one Florida
politico who is supporting Rubio. "This is purely just hatred amongst
his staff to go after
Marco out of jealousy, spite, you name it — because everyone knows the
one person who can win is Marco and yet they're doing everything they
can to hurt him. They still can't get over him having the audacity to
run." [Politico]
Everyone
knows! Except the 86 to 90 percent of Republican primary voters who
routinely don't name him as their top choice. The whole premise of
Rubio's candidacy is that
his fresh face and new way of thinking are guaranteed to beat stale
legacy candidates like Hillary Clinton. And yet, he needs to be
protected from Bush.
Of
course, it's not all bad news for Rubio. He still has decently high
favorability ratings. He has a high ceiling. Most Republicans, when
polled, can imagine supporting
him. I still think he's a not a bad bet, if you're a chancer.
But Rubio has three serious problems.
The
first is immigration reform. Rubio's treasured attempt at a domestic
legislative accomplishment was the Chuck Schumer-supported Gang of Eight
bill. The bill would
have massively increased legal immigration levels and promised vainly
to maybe stop 20 percent or so of illegal immigration. Republicans
overwhelmingly hate it.
The
second problem for Rubio is that he can come across as a little bit of a
lightweight. He communicates hope and optimism in a time when
Republicans think the nation
needs a gritty reboot.
The
third problem is that other candidates, particularly Ted Cruz and Jeb
Bush, seemed to have identified Rubio's first two problems.
None
of these problems are solvable. Even on seeming like a lightweight,
Rubio will struggle, mostly because the two issues where he has tried to
be serious in his career
are immigration reform and foreign policy. We know the problems on
immigration. But on foreign policy, Rubio is more faithful to George W.
Bush's unpopular policies in the Middle East than George, much less Jeb,
ever was.
I
would not advise Rubio to try to take advantage of Rand Paul's absence
at Thursday's debate by saying, "I may not have been swift enough to
realize I was getting rolled
by Chuck Schumer, but here's my plan to simultaneously defeat three
sides of the Syrian civil war, and Russia too."
Any moment now!
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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