Washington Post
By Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas
June 5, 2013
The immigration bill will only move to the right from here.
On Tuesday, Sen. Marco Rubio told Fox News that the bill didn’t have the 60 votes necessary to overcome a Republican filibuster in the Senate. In fact, right now, the immigration bill doesn’t even have his vote. In part, that’s because of “how little confidence people have that the federal government will enforce the law.”
So Rubio is working on making the law harder to enforce. Politico reports that Rubio has partnered with Sen. John Cornyn on a sweeping amendment that would require “stricter border patrol provisional ‘triggers’ before registered immigrants are allowed to apply for green card status. His amendment would require 100 percent operational control of the Southern borders and that 90 percent of illegal border crossers be apprehended. It would also require 100 percent border surveillance, or situational awareness, of each one-mile segment of the Southern border and installment of a national E-Verify system before registered immigrants can pursue green cards.”
That sure sounds as if no one is ever getting a green card. That level of operational control — unless operational control is defined quite far down — is nearly impossible. And that’s the Senate bill. That will be the more immigrant-friendly pole in this debate.
Wherever the Senate bill ends up, the House bill will end up well to the right of that. It will have to end up to the right of that both for political reasons — Speaker John Boehner needs to show his members they’re getting something — and for the simple reason that the average House members has beliefs that are further to the right than the sixtieth senator. House Republicans tell me to expect a lengthy, ugly process that ends with something that is an immigration-reform bill, but that Democrats might not be willing to credit as being an immigration-reform bill.
Here’s the politics as they see it: Democrats have comforted themselves with the belief that immigration reform is a political necessity for the Republican Party. And perhaps it is. But the Republicans who will lose if immigration reform fails are future Republicans. The ones who will lose in primaries if a moderate immigration bill passes are current Republicans. And it’s current Republicans who have to vote on this bill.
Moreover, the consensus in DC is well to the left of the consensus nationally. Most Americans are perfectly comfortable with extremely border enforcement. The poison pills that Republicans could add to the bill — like 100 percent operational control of the border — sound good to most Americans. Republicans believe they can sell these arguments in the next election. If it loses them future election, well, that’s for their future selves to worry about.
The Democratic theory has long been to pass a bill they like in the Senate, expect a bill they don’t like from the House, and then use the conference committee to jam House Republicans on the preise that House Republicans know they can’t kill immigration reform. But now Senate Republicans are organizing to give Democrats a bill they don’t like in the Senate, a bill they absolutely hate in the House, and if this kills immigration reform, well, plenty of their members would be just fine with that.
A month or two ago, I heard a lot of optimism from both sides on immigration reform. I’m hearing less lately, from either side.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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