Wall Street Journal
By Janet Adamy
February 24, 2016
Rapid
diversification of the electorate gives Democrats an advantage in this
year’s presidential race under a range of scenarios drawn up by a group
of demographers.
A
report released Thursday by a trio of policy groups paints a picture of
a voting population transformed by an influx of young minorities and
the aging of baby boomers.
It was written by demographers from the liberal Center for American
Progress, the more centrist Brookings Institution and the conservative
American Enterprise Institute.
The
authors melded demographic change projections by race, age and state
with voter turnout rates and party preferences for the last three
elections. Of the six scenarios
they lay out, Democrats would win the Electoral College vote in four
and the popular vote in five.
The
demographers say their scenarios show the forces shaping the election
but don’t predict its outcome. They say the choice of party nominees,
economic conditions and
other factors will affect the election results.
If
turnout rates and party preferences for the age and racial groups
remain the same as in 2012, demographic change alone—the increased share
of minority voters and the
decline of white voters—would boost the Democrats’ winning vote margin
to 4.8 percentage points in 2016, from 3.9 points in 2012.
By
looking at how that scenario plays out state by state, the demographers
projected that Americans would put a Democrat in the White House again,
with 332 Electoral College
votes to 206 for Republicans.
While
that is the same electoral total as 2012, the map reflects morphing
shades of red and blue for 2016. Nevada changes its status from a swing
state to solidly Democratic,
while Georgia moves from solid Republican to a swing state.
“All
of our different scenarios become more Democratic or less Republican
because of the changing demographics,” said William Frey, a demographer
at the Brookings Institution.
Whites
have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968.
African-Americans have voted Democratic in every White House contest
since 1936, and Hispanics
have been strongly Democratic, too.
The
only scenario where Republicans won both the popular vote and the
electoral tally was one where the authors simulated a surge of
Republican support from white voters
of all ages in every state by 5 points above 2012 voting behavior.
In
that scenario, the Republicans would have a winning margin of 2.4
points this year, compared with their losing margin of 3.9 points in
2012.
Could
that happen if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination? Mr. Frey says not
necessarily, given that Mr. Trump’s appeal among whites could be offset
by his alienation
of Latinos with derogatory remarks and anti-illegal-immigration
rhetoric.
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