Republican Strategists Split: Focus on 2014 or 2016?

Wall Street Journal

By Laura Meckler and Beth Reinhard

March 19, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304026304579449701575636212?mg=reno64-wsj

Republicans are divided over how to achieve two conflicting goals: Maximizing wins in 2014 congressional races and better positioning the party for the 2016 presidential contest, when the electorate will look much different.

Some Republicans argue that with President Barack Obama's poll numbers sinking and his health-care law unpopular, the party is on course for big House and Senate gains this fall. The worst thing the party could do, they say, is to take up contentious matters such as an immigration overhaul or some social issues, which would divide the party and could prompt GOP voters to stay home.

But others say the party has become too risk-averse. It needs to take steps now, they say, to reverse the party's losing record in the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections and start appealing to the more diverse electorate that will turn out for the 2016 election.

It is the converse of a possible problem for the Democratic Party, where some leaders worry donors and activists aren't working hard enough to prevent losses in midterm contests.

Bill McInturff, a longtime GOP pollster who has advised congressional and presidential campaigns, said his party's problem is that most GOP congressional districts have been drawn to be overwhelmingly white, insulating congressional Republicans from the larger demographic shifts afoot in the nation.

"They don't know what's coming" demographically, he said. "It may well take another presidential loss before they figure out."

Others worry that a big win this year could persuade Republicans that they can stave off issues such as immigration even longer. Victories in "2014 could be a false narcotic for Republicans,'' said Ari Fleischer, a former press secretary for President George W. Bush, who helped write an autopsy of the 2012 election for the Republican National Committee.

But GOP strategist Kevin Madden, who served as a senior adviser to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, as well as to House Republicans, thinks it is too early to target the 2016 electorate.

"The party has to focus on areas where they agree and where they think they have the most favorable contrast with the opposition party," he said. Mr. Madden said it would be a particular mistake to try right now to tackle a rewrite of immigration laws, which divide Republicans.

A GOP House leadership aide added that the imperatives for a presidential election will be taken care of "in due course." In any case, he said, views in 2016 will be chiefly shaped by the Republican nominee, not by Congress.

The differing strategies stem from the fact that the voter pool varies by election year. The midterm pool tends to be older and less diverse than the electorate in presidential years.

White voters, who skew Republican, accounted for 72% of the electorate in the 2012 presidential contest but were 77% of the electorate in the 2010 midterms. Seniors, who also have favored the GOP in recent years, accounted for 16% of the electorate in 2012 but 21% in the midterms two years earlier.

Meanwhile, voters age 18-29, who tend to favor Democrats, grew from 12% of the electorate in 2010 to 19% in 2012.

The most acute dispute among Republicans is when and whether the House should tackle immigration, including the prospect of granting some kind of legal status to many of the 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally.

Many Republicans say that addressing the issue is critical to attracting more Hispanic voters. The 2012 report for the RNC concluded the party "must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform," an unusually blunt endorsement of a position that many in the party oppose. It concluded: "If we do not, our party's appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only."

So far, House Republicans have decided to wait, fearful that a legislative debate would stir an intra-party fight. This week, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus played down the report's recommendation, saying the party cannot tackle immigration until there is more of a consensus in the GOP. He also argued the party's move to put Hispanic outreach staff in communities was more important than passing a bill. "Showing up is a big part of the battle," he said.

Other Republicans say the House is making a big mistake if it doesn't take the immigration issue off the table this year, contending the task will grow harder in 2015.

GOP strategist Whit Ayres said the most important imperative for the party is to attract more racial minorities. "The forces at work are highly likely to produce so strong a Republican year that the party can afford to take some steps for longer-term success," he said.

Social issues present another challenge, particularly for young voters who overwhelmingly favor gay rights and marijuana decriminalization, among other issues putting them at odds with the GOP. "If we become the party where young people roll their eyes when they see us coming, we have a problem," Mr. Fleischer said. "That has a lot to do with tolerance and open-mindedness."

Debate is also underway over how specific Republicans should be in offering their own positive ideas, particularly on health care, at a time when the party is focused on highlighting the problems with the Affordable Care Act. Some Republicans say a more positive vision is needed to build the party beyond that.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia is readying a legislative proposal on health care, which is expected to include a collection of familiar conservative ideas. An aide said the most controversial idea, changing the tax treatment of health-care benefits, is on the table along with other more modest proposals.

But no decisions have been made about what will be in the legislation or when it will see a vote in the House, the aide said.

"It's hard to position yourself for a presidential election when you first need to take back the Senate," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a former top congressional aide who favors taking up immigration this year. "After that happens, you're going to see a giant pivot by everyone on winning back the White House. But right now, it's on the most immediate needs."

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