New York Times: When Mitt Romney pulled in for a campaign rally here recently, he pointedly left his tough stance against illegal immigration far behind in South Carolina, where he had trumpeted the issue repeatedly.
It was a tactical decision designed to avoid irritating Florida’s coveted 450,000 Hispanic Republican voters, a group that is overwhelmingly Cuban-American, as he headed into the Jan. 31 presidential primary here, political analysts say.
But Mr. Romney, who takes a hard line on illegal immigration, was also banking on the likelihood that the Hispanic voters — a pivotal bloc in a pivotal state — care more about jobs and the distressed economy than green cards and the Dream Act, a proposal to give legal status to some illegal immigrants who came into the United States as children.
In this, Mr. Romney is right. Unlike many Mexicans and other Hispanics in California and the Southwest, Cuban-Americans do not view immigration as a defining issue in the election. That is because for decades Cubans arriving in the United States have been automatically granted United States residency after their first year here, a holdover from the cold war. Puerto Ricans, who make up the second-largest group of Hispanics in Florida, are already citizens and are also less concerned about immigration.
“The economy is what’s most important to Hispanics here, unemployment,” Sergio Lostal, 59, an unemployed Cuban-American and Romney supporter who arrived in the United States in 1984, said at the rally. “That’s the fundamental issue.”
Florida’s unemployment rate is 9.9 percent, compared with 8.5 percent nationally; the jobless rate for Hispanics nationally and in Florida is even higher.
In polls taken before the South Carolina primary, Mr. Romney held a lead in Florida as large as 22 percent over Newt Gingrich and another contender, Rick Santorum. But Mr. Gingrich’s strong victory over Mr. Romney in the South Carolina primary is shaking up some Hispanic Romney supporters, who are taking another look at Mr. Gingrich.
And while Hispanic voters here have not seized on immigration as an issue, Mr. Gingrich’s more temperate view on illegal immigration has certainly not hurt him. Mr. Gingrich said in a debate on Monday that he would support half of the Dream Act — the part that would grant citizenship to young illegal immigrants who serve in the military but not those who complete college. Mr. Romney said he agreed with that position. But Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum had said they would veto the Dream Act as written, a position that could dampen enthusiasm among Latinos in a general election.
Mr. Gingrich also has proposed allowing many illegal immigrants who have been in the United States a long time the opportunity to stay here as residents. Mr. Romney, like Mr. Santorum, has taken an aggressive stance against legalizing any illegal immigrants who do no deport themselves and apply for green cards from their home country.
Like the candidates, Florida has long been conflicted over illegal immigration in general; in its last session, the State Senate declined to pass a bill that would have required businesses to verify the immigration status of workers.
But Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney have much in common when it comes to Cuba. Both are making a point of talking tough on Cuba and the Castro brothers, saying they would roll back family travel to the island, among other things.
Rosa Pestana, 67, a Cuban-American voter who attended the Romney rally nearly two weeks ago, was planning to vote for Mr. Romney at the time. After Mr. Gingrich, a candidate she said she believes is intelligent and experienced, won the South Carolina primary, she was torn. Now she is holding back until after Thursday’s debate to decide who to vote for, adding that she will likely choose whoever is the front-runner.
But, Ms. Pestana, who owns an assisted living center, said she viewed Mr. Gingrich’s position on immigration — an issue she considers secondary — as more realistic. Her son recently tried to hire American citizens for his roofing company, she said, and found no takers.
“Who will fix our roofs and pick our tomatoes?” asked Ms. Pestana.
Ms. Pestena’s friend, Elaine Fandino, who had also seesawed between the candidates after South Carolina, said she would vote for Mr. Romney after he “took out the claws” in Monday’s debate. “He is the one,” she said.
Mr. Romney’s campaign is well organized, and has spent several million dollars on advertising in the state, including one television spot featuring his son Craig, speaking in Spanish about liberty and opportunity. Mr. Romney was also expected to benefit from Florida’s absentee votes, which could break records.
Not to be outdone, Mr. Gingrich, who was in Miami recently raising money, made the requisite pilgrimage to Versailles, a Cuban restaurant in Little Havana, to sip a cafecito and denounce Fidel and Raúl Castro. Mr. Santorum has ratcheted up his own campaign in the state in the past two weeks.
Florida has 1.5 million Hispanic voters (13.4 percent of the state’s total electorate), and 32 percent of them are Cuban-Americans, who largely vote Republican and mostly live in South Florida. Today, a majority of Hispanics are Democrats. The state’s booming Puerto Rican population, whose members are generally less partisan than their New York peers but still tend to vote Democratic, are the second-largest group of Latino voters in Florida, making up 28 percent of the Hispanic voters.
Other large Hispanic groups in the state — Colombians, Nicaraguans, Peruvians — are swing voters who make up a small but growing slice of the electorate.
Because the vast majority of Cuban-Americans in Florida are citizens who reliably turn out to vote, candidates passionately court them.
Cuban-American voters often take their cues from South Florida’s two most powerful Republican Congressional lawmakers, Representatives Mario Diaz-Balart and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who are backing Mr. Romney despite his stance on immigration. Senator Marco Rubio, the prized endorsement among Hispanic Republicans, has said he would not take sides in the primary.
Mr. Diaz-Balart said that he disagreed in general with Mr. Romney and the Republican Party on immigration, but that President Obama had failed to fulfill his campaign promise to provide a path for longtime illegal immigrants to remain here legally.
“President Obama’s record on immigration is dismal,” he said. But, he added, immigration is an afterthought in this election for most Hispanics here. “The reality is, until you get the economy going, it becomes a secondary issue,” Mr. Diaz-Balart said. “People don’t want to talk about people who are here illegally when people who are here legally don’t have jobs.”
There was not always such an outpouring of support for Mr. Romney among Hispanics in Florida. In 2008, he came in last among Hispanic voters in the primary, which Senator John McCain won.
In the end, Mr. Obama won 57 percent of the Hispanic vote in the state (a majority of Cuban-Americans cast their ballots for Mr. McCain). But in 2010, Latinos in Florida tilted back to Republicans, helping to elect Mr. Rubio, a Cuban-American, and Gov. Rick Scott, who benefited from Mr. Rubio’s presence on the party’s ticket.
“Florida Hispanics have always tended to lean toward the establishment candidate,” said Dario Moreno, a professor of political science at Florida International University.
An aggressive stance on immigration could prove a problem down the road among swing voters if a candidate were perceived to be disparaging Hispanics. Already, some Dream Act supporters are planning to demonstrate at Mr. Romney’s events. Puerto Ricans, who live mostly in the Orlando area and are a crucial swing vote, frown upon attacks that could be perceived as ethnic bias. Latin Americans in Dade County have a vested interest in the immigration debate, and even Cuban-Americans, who are no longer in lockstep with the Republican Party, could react negatively to polarizing language on the issue.
“They are very sensitive to messages that can be perceived as anti-Hispanic and very sensitive to the immigrant experience,” Professor Moreno said of Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans.
Mr. Gingrich is doing what he can to play up his differences with Mr. Romney on immigration. Democrats, too, are eager to capitalize on the immigration debate. They are already running radio ads in Florida calling Mr. Romney two-faced on the issue. The Republican National Committee, though, recently named a national Hispanic outreach coordinator to go head-to-head with her Democratic counterpart in a bid to win over Latinos.
Like Mr. Romney, Republican officials are hoping that worries about the economy will trump concerns about immigration.
“Immigration is an issue that always dictates in the Latino community, and the debate plays an important role in the conversation,” said Bettina Inclan, the Republicans’ Hispanic outreach coordinator, who grew up in Miami. “But the reality is that this election is going to be about the economy.”
It was a tactical decision designed to avoid irritating Florida’s coveted 450,000 Hispanic Republican voters, a group that is overwhelmingly Cuban-American, as he headed into the Jan. 31 presidential primary here, political analysts say.
But Mr. Romney, who takes a hard line on illegal immigration, was also banking on the likelihood that the Hispanic voters — a pivotal bloc in a pivotal state — care more about jobs and the distressed economy than green cards and the Dream Act, a proposal to give legal status to some illegal immigrants who came into the United States as children.
In this, Mr. Romney is right. Unlike many Mexicans and other Hispanics in California and the Southwest, Cuban-Americans do not view immigration as a defining issue in the election. That is because for decades Cubans arriving in the United States have been automatically granted United States residency after their first year here, a holdover from the cold war. Puerto Ricans, who make up the second-largest group of Hispanics in Florida, are already citizens and are also less concerned about immigration.
“The economy is what’s most important to Hispanics here, unemployment,” Sergio Lostal, 59, an unemployed Cuban-American and Romney supporter who arrived in the United States in 1984, said at the rally. “That’s the fundamental issue.”
Florida’s unemployment rate is 9.9 percent, compared with 8.5 percent nationally; the jobless rate for Hispanics nationally and in Florida is even higher.
In polls taken before the South Carolina primary, Mr. Romney held a lead in Florida as large as 22 percent over Newt Gingrich and another contender, Rick Santorum. But Mr. Gingrich’s strong victory over Mr. Romney in the South Carolina primary is shaking up some Hispanic Romney supporters, who are taking another look at Mr. Gingrich.
And while Hispanic voters here have not seized on immigration as an issue, Mr. Gingrich’s more temperate view on illegal immigration has certainly not hurt him. Mr. Gingrich said in a debate on Monday that he would support half of the Dream Act — the part that would grant citizenship to young illegal immigrants who serve in the military but not those who complete college. Mr. Romney said he agreed with that position. But Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum had said they would veto the Dream Act as written, a position that could dampen enthusiasm among Latinos in a general election.
Mr. Gingrich also has proposed allowing many illegal immigrants who have been in the United States a long time the opportunity to stay here as residents. Mr. Romney, like Mr. Santorum, has taken an aggressive stance against legalizing any illegal immigrants who do no deport themselves and apply for green cards from their home country.
Like the candidates, Florida has long been conflicted over illegal immigration in general; in its last session, the State Senate declined to pass a bill that would have required businesses to verify the immigration status of workers.
But Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney have much in common when it comes to Cuba. Both are making a point of talking tough on Cuba and the Castro brothers, saying they would roll back family travel to the island, among other things.
Rosa Pestana, 67, a Cuban-American voter who attended the Romney rally nearly two weeks ago, was planning to vote for Mr. Romney at the time. After Mr. Gingrich, a candidate she said she believes is intelligent and experienced, won the South Carolina primary, she was torn. Now she is holding back until after Thursday’s debate to decide who to vote for, adding that she will likely choose whoever is the front-runner.
But, Ms. Pestana, who owns an assisted living center, said she viewed Mr. Gingrich’s position on immigration — an issue she considers secondary — as more realistic. Her son recently tried to hire American citizens for his roofing company, she said, and found no takers.
“Who will fix our roofs and pick our tomatoes?” asked Ms. Pestana.
Ms. Pestena’s friend, Elaine Fandino, who had also seesawed between the candidates after South Carolina, said she would vote for Mr. Romney after he “took out the claws” in Monday’s debate. “He is the one,” she said.
Mr. Romney’s campaign is well organized, and has spent several million dollars on advertising in the state, including one television spot featuring his son Craig, speaking in Spanish about liberty and opportunity. Mr. Romney was also expected to benefit from Florida’s absentee votes, which could break records.
Not to be outdone, Mr. Gingrich, who was in Miami recently raising money, made the requisite pilgrimage to Versailles, a Cuban restaurant in Little Havana, to sip a cafecito and denounce Fidel and Raúl Castro. Mr. Santorum has ratcheted up his own campaign in the state in the past two weeks.
Florida has 1.5 million Hispanic voters (13.4 percent of the state’s total electorate), and 32 percent of them are Cuban-Americans, who largely vote Republican and mostly live in South Florida. Today, a majority of Hispanics are Democrats. The state’s booming Puerto Rican population, whose members are generally less partisan than their New York peers but still tend to vote Democratic, are the second-largest group of Latino voters in Florida, making up 28 percent of the Hispanic voters.
Other large Hispanic groups in the state — Colombians, Nicaraguans, Peruvians — are swing voters who make up a small but growing slice of the electorate.
Because the vast majority of Cuban-Americans in Florida are citizens who reliably turn out to vote, candidates passionately court them.
Cuban-American voters often take their cues from South Florida’s two most powerful Republican Congressional lawmakers, Representatives Mario Diaz-Balart and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who are backing Mr. Romney despite his stance on immigration. Senator Marco Rubio, the prized endorsement among Hispanic Republicans, has said he would not take sides in the primary.
Mr. Diaz-Balart said that he disagreed in general with Mr. Romney and the Republican Party on immigration, but that President Obama had failed to fulfill his campaign promise to provide a path for longtime illegal immigrants to remain here legally.
“President Obama’s record on immigration is dismal,” he said. But, he added, immigration is an afterthought in this election for most Hispanics here. “The reality is, until you get the economy going, it becomes a secondary issue,” Mr. Diaz-Balart said. “People don’t want to talk about people who are here illegally when people who are here legally don’t have jobs.”
There was not always such an outpouring of support for Mr. Romney among Hispanics in Florida. In 2008, he came in last among Hispanic voters in the primary, which Senator John McCain won.
In the end, Mr. Obama won 57 percent of the Hispanic vote in the state (a majority of Cuban-Americans cast their ballots for Mr. McCain). But in 2010, Latinos in Florida tilted back to Republicans, helping to elect Mr. Rubio, a Cuban-American, and Gov. Rick Scott, who benefited from Mr. Rubio’s presence on the party’s ticket.
“Florida Hispanics have always tended to lean toward the establishment candidate,” said Dario Moreno, a professor of political science at Florida International University.
An aggressive stance on immigration could prove a problem down the road among swing voters if a candidate were perceived to be disparaging Hispanics. Already, some Dream Act supporters are planning to demonstrate at Mr. Romney’s events. Puerto Ricans, who live mostly in the Orlando area and are a crucial swing vote, frown upon attacks that could be perceived as ethnic bias. Latin Americans in Dade County have a vested interest in the immigration debate, and even Cuban-Americans, who are no longer in lockstep with the Republican Party, could react negatively to polarizing language on the issue.
“They are very sensitive to messages that can be perceived as anti-Hispanic and very sensitive to the immigrant experience,” Professor Moreno said of Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans.
Mr. Gingrich is doing what he can to play up his differences with Mr. Romney on immigration. Democrats, too, are eager to capitalize on the immigration debate. They are already running radio ads in Florida calling Mr. Romney two-faced on the issue. The Republican National Committee, though, recently named a national Hispanic outreach coordinator to go head-to-head with her Democratic counterpart in a bid to win over Latinos.
Like Mr. Romney, Republican officials are hoping that worries about the economy will trump concerns about immigration.
“Immigration is an issue that always dictates in the Latino community, and the debate plays an important role in the conversation,” said Bettina Inclan, the Republicans’ Hispanic outreach coordinator, who grew up in Miami. “But the reality is that this election is going to be about the economy.”
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