Los Angeles Times: Frank Verano and Mirna Montes stand out among the Cuban patrons at Versailles Bakery in Little Havana. They're decades younger than many of the customers and, perhaps as a result, they're also more liberal.
Verano voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Montes says she'll vote for him as soon as she becomes a citizen. "Your mother wanted to kill you," Montes said, teasing Verano, a close friend, about his 2008 vote. His mother, like many in the Cuban American community, is a devoted Republican.
For decades, Democrats have salivated over the powerful Cuban voting bloc in Miami-Dade County, hoping the children and grandchildren of immigrants who came in the 1960s would be more progressive than their parents.
In 2008, it looked like the vote might finally break for the Democrats. Obama, buoyed by independent voters like Verano, narrowly won the 18th Congressional District, which has been represented by a Cuban American Republican since 1989.
But the momentum has shifted since 2008, and many Cuban Americans who voted for Obama say they're disillusioned and may not support him in 2012. Verano says voting for Obama was a "mistake" and that this time he'll vote for Ron Paul or not at all.
"Obama had at least a chance to make some inroads for the Democrats about younger Cuban voters," said Dario Moreno, a professor at Florida International University. "But the persistence of the bad economy has hurt him. If his presidency had been more successful, those Cuban American young people who voted for him in 2008 would have stuck with him."
The Cuban vote in Florida has always been important. The state has 1.2 million residents of Cuban descent, according to census data, and many are registered Republicans.
In Miami-Dade, the state's most populous county, 74% of registered Republicans are Latino. That's why every election year, candidates come to the Versailles Restaurant to give an anti-Fidel Castro speech and sip coffee, and then head perhaps to the Freedom Tower, where Cuban immigrants were processed, to extol freedom.
Appealing to Republican Cuban Americans is usually easy — candidates just need to say they want to do away with Castro and keep or strengthen the embargo on Cuba, and maybe allude to using force to displace the regime. (Mitt Romney confused this in 2008 when he used the phrase "Patria o muerte, venceremos," in a speech in Little Havana, which means "Fatherland or death, we will prevail" and is associated with Castro.)
The Republican affiliation of Cubans stems from a distrust of President Kennedy over the failed Bay of Pigs invasion; an affinity for the strong anti-communist stance adopted by previous Republican presidents; and conservative Roman Catholic values often shared with conservative politicians. Democrats who are Cuban say many from the older generation accuse them of being communists for voting Democratic.
But that changed slightly in 2008, according to a study by Benjamin Bishin, a UC Riverside professor who conducted a poll of the Cuban electorate in Miami-Dade County.
Support for tightening the embargo against Cuba — a conservative position — fell by half between 2004 and 2008, he said. About 20% of Cuban Americans identified themselves as liberals in 2008, a 7-percentage-point increase from 2004. And 58% of Cubans said they identified with the Republican Party in 2008, down from 68% in 2004.
"The community is moderating very slowly," Bishin said.
That's in part because 50 years after the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban community is becoming more diverse. It's made up of more new, young immigrants from Cuba and of second- and third-generation Cuban Americans for whom economic issues trump arguments about an embargo or regime change, Bishin said.
Recent immigrants often think that the embargo hasn't worked. Younger generations "are more open" to voting for a different party, but often register as independents, Bishin said.
Democrats were poised to take advantage of those changes, putting up strong candidates in 2008 for seats in the 18th, 21st and 25th congressional districts. Republicans won all three, but Obama beat McCain in the 18th and was only 2 percentage points behind in the 21st.
This year, none of the districts is considered up for grabs, perhaps because the economy rather than immigration or Cuba policy is the top issue for Cuban American voters. That's why Marioska Bravo, 29, a Cuban American sales clerk in Miami, said she wouldn't vote for Obama again, even though she supported him in 2008.
"No," she said. "I don't like the economy. I don't like the situation."
Millie Herrera, vice president of the Miami-Dade Cuban American Democratic Club, said she was going to try to fight perceptions among Cuban Americans that the poor economy was Obama's fault.
"When the economy is bad, people tend to blame the administration in power," she said.
Over the long haul, the trend favors Democrats in Miami-Dade. Latino Republicans still hold an 80,000-voter edge, but Latino Democratic rolls have surged by 45% since 2006. Latino Republican registration gained 2% in the same period.
But Bishin says that it could be 15 years before the Cuban American Republican strongholds go Democratic.
"Those districts are up for grabs in the long run," he said, "but it looks like the electorate is only changing at a 4 or 5 points a cycle."
Until many of the solid Republicans stop voting because of death or disinterest, Democrats may just have to wait for people such as Mirna Montes, the woman at Versailles. She says she likes Obama but is not a citizen yet, so she cannot vote.
Joe Garcia ran for Congress as a Democrat in 2008 and 2010. He finished 8 percentage points behind opponent Mario Diaz-Balart in 2008, but 10 percentage points behind opponent David Rivera in 2010. He says residents told him they wanted to support him, but they either couldn't vote or didn't turn out.
"I won the Latin American vote and the younger Cuban American vote," he said. "But the reality is, these older Cuban Americans voted in huge numbers. These old guys are going to turn out to vote."
Verano voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Montes says she'll vote for him as soon as she becomes a citizen. "Your mother wanted to kill you," Montes said, teasing Verano, a close friend, about his 2008 vote. His mother, like many in the Cuban American community, is a devoted Republican.
For decades, Democrats have salivated over the powerful Cuban voting bloc in Miami-Dade County, hoping the children and grandchildren of immigrants who came in the 1960s would be more progressive than their parents.
In 2008, it looked like the vote might finally break for the Democrats. Obama, buoyed by independent voters like Verano, narrowly won the 18th Congressional District, which has been represented by a Cuban American Republican since 1989.
But the momentum has shifted since 2008, and many Cuban Americans who voted for Obama say they're disillusioned and may not support him in 2012. Verano says voting for Obama was a "mistake" and that this time he'll vote for Ron Paul or not at all.
"Obama had at least a chance to make some inroads for the Democrats about younger Cuban voters," said Dario Moreno, a professor at Florida International University. "But the persistence of the bad economy has hurt him. If his presidency had been more successful, those Cuban American young people who voted for him in 2008 would have stuck with him."
The Cuban vote in Florida has always been important. The state has 1.2 million residents of Cuban descent, according to census data, and many are registered Republicans.
In Miami-Dade, the state's most populous county, 74% of registered Republicans are Latino. That's why every election year, candidates come to the Versailles Restaurant to give an anti-Fidel Castro speech and sip coffee, and then head perhaps to the Freedom Tower, where Cuban immigrants were processed, to extol freedom.
Appealing to Republican Cuban Americans is usually easy — candidates just need to say they want to do away with Castro and keep or strengthen the embargo on Cuba, and maybe allude to using force to displace the regime. (Mitt Romney confused this in 2008 when he used the phrase "Patria o muerte, venceremos," in a speech in Little Havana, which means "Fatherland or death, we will prevail" and is associated with Castro.)
The Republican affiliation of Cubans stems from a distrust of President Kennedy over the failed Bay of Pigs invasion; an affinity for the strong anti-communist stance adopted by previous Republican presidents; and conservative Roman Catholic values often shared with conservative politicians. Democrats who are Cuban say many from the older generation accuse them of being communists for voting Democratic.
But that changed slightly in 2008, according to a study by Benjamin Bishin, a UC Riverside professor who conducted a poll of the Cuban electorate in Miami-Dade County.
Support for tightening the embargo against Cuba — a conservative position — fell by half between 2004 and 2008, he said. About 20% of Cuban Americans identified themselves as liberals in 2008, a 7-percentage-point increase from 2004. And 58% of Cubans said they identified with the Republican Party in 2008, down from 68% in 2004.
"The community is moderating very slowly," Bishin said.
That's in part because 50 years after the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban community is becoming more diverse. It's made up of more new, young immigrants from Cuba and of second- and third-generation Cuban Americans for whom economic issues trump arguments about an embargo or regime change, Bishin said.
Recent immigrants often think that the embargo hasn't worked. Younger generations "are more open" to voting for a different party, but often register as independents, Bishin said.
Democrats were poised to take advantage of those changes, putting up strong candidates in 2008 for seats in the 18th, 21st and 25th congressional districts. Republicans won all three, but Obama beat McCain in the 18th and was only 2 percentage points behind in the 21st.
This year, none of the districts is considered up for grabs, perhaps because the economy rather than immigration or Cuba policy is the top issue for Cuban American voters. That's why Marioska Bravo, 29, a Cuban American sales clerk in Miami, said she wouldn't vote for Obama again, even though she supported him in 2008.
"No," she said. "I don't like the economy. I don't like the situation."
Millie Herrera, vice president of the Miami-Dade Cuban American Democratic Club, said she was going to try to fight perceptions among Cuban Americans that the poor economy was Obama's fault.
"When the economy is bad, people tend to blame the administration in power," she said.
Over the long haul, the trend favors Democrats in Miami-Dade. Latino Republicans still hold an 80,000-voter edge, but Latino Democratic rolls have surged by 45% since 2006. Latino Republican registration gained 2% in the same period.
But Bishin says that it could be 15 years before the Cuban American Republican strongholds go Democratic.
"Those districts are up for grabs in the long run," he said, "but it looks like the electorate is only changing at a 4 or 5 points a cycle."
Until many of the solid Republicans stop voting because of death or disinterest, Democrats may just have to wait for people such as Mirna Montes, the woman at Versailles. She says she likes Obama but is not a citizen yet, so she cannot vote.
Joe Garcia ran for Congress as a Democrat in 2008 and 2010. He finished 8 percentage points behind opponent Mario Diaz-Balart in 2008, but 10 percentage points behind opponent David Rivera in 2010. He says residents told him they wanted to support him, but they either couldn't vote or didn't turn out.
"I won the Latin American vote and the younger Cuban American vote," he said. "But the reality is, these older Cuban Americans voted in huge numbers. These old guys are going to turn out to vote."
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