National Journal
By Lauren Fox
June 4, 2015
Ever
since Mitt Romney walked away from the 2012 election a loser with 27
percent of the Latino vote, the Republican Party has been on a quest to
find a way it can appeal
to Hispanic voters without alienating its conservative base.
A
Pew Research Center poll reveals that 2016 presidential contenders may
have more room to reach out to Latino voters than they may have first
thought, but the ground
will still be shifting.
The
poll shows 72 percent of American voters support a path to legalization
for immigrants who are living in the country illegally. That is a
position that former Florida
Gov. Jeb Bush and Sens. Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham have taken
criticism from the conservative wing of the party for supporting. Even
more promising for those candidates, 56 percent of Republicans support
giving undocumented immigrants a chance to stay
in the country. Among conservative voters, that number remains at 53
percent. The numbers show that even in primaries, Rubio, Graham and
Bush's positions may not be losing ones.
Pew surveyed 2,002 adults nationally from May 12-18 for the poll, which has a 2.5 percent margin of error.
In
recent months, 2016 candidates and others seriously considering the
race have stumbled over how to answer straightforward questions about
where they stand on a path
to citizenship or legalization for the country's 11 million
undocumented immigrants.
A
Wall Street Journal story in March reported that Wisconsin Gov. Scott
Walker told a small group in New Hampshire that under some
circumstances, he could support a path
to citizenship for immigrants. Walker's spokesperson later said that
was not his position. Nowadays, when asked about immigration, Republican
candidates would prefer to talk about securing the border before wading
into the danger zone of legalization or citizenship specifics, if they wade into it at all.
And
there is some reason for their pause. While the majority of Republicans
in the Pew poll say they support a path to legalization, many
Republican voters still view
immigrants as a negative. The Pew poll finds that 63 percent of
Republican voters still consider immigrants a "burden" on the U.S.
economy rather than a boon, and 58 percent see giving immigrants legal
status as akin to "rewarding" them for breaking the law.
Meanwhile,
Democratic candidates have much more leeway to boldly support a path to
legalization without fear of alienating voters. If anything, Democrats
may need to take
a bolder stance to mobilize Latino voters to the polls in the general
election. Hillary Clinton staked out a very liberal policy last month,
when she strongly defended executive actions if Congress continued its
obstinacy on immigration. And former Maryland
Gov. Martin O'Malley, who is also running, promised he'd tackle
immigration in his first 100 days in office. The Pew poll shows that 80
percent of Democratic voters want immigrants to have a path to legal
status. That number jumps to 86 percent among Hispanic
voters and 72 percent among black voters—both key demographics for
Democrats.
For
Democrats, a path to legalization for immigrants continues to be a
straightforward and no-lose proposition. O'Malley even insinuated on
Wednesday that Clinton was
behind him on the issue.
For
Republicans, however, the line to stand on continues to shift, and it
is not just Republican candidates who are swaying. Republican voters are
clearly conflicted,
too.
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