Palm Beach Post (Article by John Lantigua):The Republican Party's attempt to woo Hispanic voters this election year has so far been a rough ride. And last week that journey hit another speed bump.
When Bettina Inclan, the Republican National Committee official in charge of Hispanic outreach, was asked about GOP presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's hard-line position on immigration enforcement and how it might play with the average Hispanic voter, she became tongue-tied.
"I think as a candidate, to my understanding, that he's still deciding what his position on immigration is," Inclan said. "So I can't talk about what his proposal's going to be, because I don't know what Romney exactly - he's talked about different issues."
During GOP primaries, where many voters were staunch conservatives, Romney said the U.S. needed to enforce its laws to the point that illegal immigrants "self-deport" because they can no longer work and support themselves here. That angered many Hispanics, leaving Inclan a hard job.
But now that Romney appears to have the nomination sewn up, questions arise: Will he soften his stance? And whether he does or not, how important will the immigration issue be, especially to Hispanic voters, and especially in Florida, which Romney almost certainly must win to become president ?
"He was duking it out in the primaries and said those things," said Ana Navarro of Miami, a longtime GOP consultant. "Now he's going to have to make a big effort, especially in Florida, and try to win some of those people back."
Romney's critics on the immigration issue say Inclan may not know what his position is, but Hispanic voters do. They point to a recent Pew Research Center poll that shows President Obama leading Romney 67 percent to 27 percent among registered Hispanic voters nationwide.
A specific factor contributing to those bad numbers is that Romney opposes the Dream Act, which would grant a path to citizenship for undocumented young people brought here before they turned 16. Hispanics overwhelmingly support that legislation. And when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a prospective vice presidential nominee, proposed a more modest version of the Dream Act, Romney didn't reject it, but didn't embrace it either.
Why Florida matters
In Florida, Obama leads Romney 52 percent to 37 percent among Hispanic voters, according to an April Public Opinion poll. While the spread may be less than that nationwide, the size of the Florida Hispanic vote and the fact that Florida is the most populous swing state, with 29 electoral votes, make the Florida numbers potentially more important.
"California has a very large portion of the Hispanic voters, but Romney was never going to win California anyway, so what Hispanics there think of him really doesn't matter," said Joseph Uscinski, a University of Miami political scientist. "Here in Florida it's a different matter."
According to the Florida Division of Elections, as of Jan. 31, of the 11.2 million registered voters in Florida, 1,473,920 were Hispanic, or 13.1 percent. Of those, 452,619 were registered as Republicans and 564,513 Democrats.
Obama beat GOP hopeful John McCain 67 percent to 31 percent among Hispanics nationally in 2008, and 57 percent to 43 percent in Florida. Just how the vote this time might be influenced by differences in immigration policy is hard to know. National polls indicate that Hispanics name the economy as their primary concern, followed by education and health care. Immigration is down the list.
In addition, the majority of Florida Hispanic voters are either Cubans, who automatically have legal residence when they arrive in the U.S., or Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens by birth. So those groups don't have immigration issues of their own.
"Given that, the whole immigration issue just doesn't play as strongly in Florida as it does among Hispanics in some other states," said University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith.
But that doesn't mean Florida Hispanics don't care about the immigration issue at all.
"The polls show that Hispanics in general, even those here legally, don't like what they consider anti-immigrant rhetoric," said UM political scientist Jorge Gonzalez . "They consider it a broad swipe at all Hispanics."
Romney's tactical options
Democrats have made inroads among Cuban voters, especially younger voters in recent years, but Cubans traditionally vote Republican by wide margins in presidential elections and are expected to do so this time. Smith says he sees little threat of erosion there over the immigration issue.
"You might have a small number sensitive to the issue thinking of staying home, but they could also say, 'Romney is the lesser of the two evils, so I'll vote for him,' " Smith said.
As for other Florida Hispanics, Navarro admits Romney is in a hole over his immigration stance. She says when he is forced to refer to it, he will have to take a two-pronged approach.
"On immigration policy, I don't think he can change the basic position he took in the primaries," Navarro said. "He doesn't have wiggle room. To keep his base he needs to stay anti-amnesty and pro-border security. That said, he certainly can make some of his answers more nuanced and soften his tone on the issue."
But Navarro says Romney also has to use a second tactic.
"When it comes to Barack Obama, Romney has to attack," she said. "Obama has his own vulnerabilities on the issue. He promised immigration reform in his first term and didn't keep that promise. Deportations have gone up. Hispanics are disillusioned with him on that. I think Romney can get somewhere in trying to neutralize the issue that way."
But most political observers agree that Romney, in dealing with Hispanics, must try to get off immigration quickly and go to his core issue - the economy.
"Romney can chip away at Obama's formidable Hispanic following by focusing on jobs," a FoxNews.com editorial said last week. Unemployment among Hispanics is 10.8 percent, compared with 8. 1 percent for the general population.
"Hispanics have been disproportionately affected by the bad economy," Navarro said. She said Romney's theme for Hispanics needs to be a play on an old Bill Clinton quip: "It's the economy, stupid."
"Romney needs to tell them, 'It's the economy and Hispanics are not stupid,' " Navarro said. In other words, they should not be distracted by the immigration issue.
Should he blend issues?
Gonzalez believes Romney will not be allowed to sidestep his hard stance on immigration, but could try to meld the immigration and economic issues.
"He might take the approach that he wants to make sure that Hispanics who are U.S. citizens have jobs and some of those jobs are being lost to those undocumented immigrants," Gonzalez said. "Maybe he can try to use that to pull enough Puerto Ricans up in the I-4 corridor away from the Democrats to make a difference."
But Smith says that on the economics issue Romney could have a tricky time with many of Florida's non-Cuban Hispanics - most of whom are Democrats - given his personal fortune.
"The politics of Latin America is all about class warfare," he said. "Getting Hispanic middle-class and working-class voters to believe that Romney's economic plans will benefit them, and not simply the rich, could be a tough sell."
When Bettina Inclan, the Republican National Committee official in charge of Hispanic outreach, was asked about GOP presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's hard-line position on immigration enforcement and how it might play with the average Hispanic voter, she became tongue-tied.
"I think as a candidate, to my understanding, that he's still deciding what his position on immigration is," Inclan said. "So I can't talk about what his proposal's going to be, because I don't know what Romney exactly - he's talked about different issues."
During GOP primaries, where many voters were staunch conservatives, Romney said the U.S. needed to enforce its laws to the point that illegal immigrants "self-deport" because they can no longer work and support themselves here. That angered many Hispanics, leaving Inclan a hard job.
But now that Romney appears to have the nomination sewn up, questions arise: Will he soften his stance? And whether he does or not, how important will the immigration issue be, especially to Hispanic voters, and especially in Florida, which Romney almost certainly must win to become president ?
"He was duking it out in the primaries and said those things," said Ana Navarro of Miami, a longtime GOP consultant. "Now he's going to have to make a big effort, especially in Florida, and try to win some of those people back."
Romney's critics on the immigration issue say Inclan may not know what his position is, but Hispanic voters do. They point to a recent Pew Research Center poll that shows President Obama leading Romney 67 percent to 27 percent among registered Hispanic voters nationwide.
A specific factor contributing to those bad numbers is that Romney opposes the Dream Act, which would grant a path to citizenship for undocumented young people brought here before they turned 16. Hispanics overwhelmingly support that legislation. And when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a prospective vice presidential nominee, proposed a more modest version of the Dream Act, Romney didn't reject it, but didn't embrace it either.
Why Florida matters
In Florida, Obama leads Romney 52 percent to 37 percent among Hispanic voters, according to an April Public Opinion poll. While the spread may be less than that nationwide, the size of the Florida Hispanic vote and the fact that Florida is the most populous swing state, with 29 electoral votes, make the Florida numbers potentially more important.
"California has a very large portion of the Hispanic voters, but Romney was never going to win California anyway, so what Hispanics there think of him really doesn't matter," said Joseph Uscinski, a University of Miami political scientist. "Here in Florida it's a different matter."
According to the Florida Division of Elections, as of Jan. 31, of the 11.2 million registered voters in Florida, 1,473,920 were Hispanic, or 13.1 percent. Of those, 452,619 were registered as Republicans and 564,513 Democrats.
Obama beat GOP hopeful John McCain 67 percent to 31 percent among Hispanics nationally in 2008, and 57 percent to 43 percent in Florida. Just how the vote this time might be influenced by differences in immigration policy is hard to know. National polls indicate that Hispanics name the economy as their primary concern, followed by education and health care. Immigration is down the list.
In addition, the majority of Florida Hispanic voters are either Cubans, who automatically have legal residence when they arrive in the U.S., or Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens by birth. So those groups don't have immigration issues of their own.
"Given that, the whole immigration issue just doesn't play as strongly in Florida as it does among Hispanics in some other states," said University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith.
But that doesn't mean Florida Hispanics don't care about the immigration issue at all.
"The polls show that Hispanics in general, even those here legally, don't like what they consider anti-immigrant rhetoric," said UM political scientist Jorge Gonzalez . "They consider it a broad swipe at all Hispanics."
Romney's tactical options
Democrats have made inroads among Cuban voters, especially younger voters in recent years, but Cubans traditionally vote Republican by wide margins in presidential elections and are expected to do so this time. Smith says he sees little threat of erosion there over the immigration issue.
"You might have a small number sensitive to the issue thinking of staying home, but they could also say, 'Romney is the lesser of the two evils, so I'll vote for him,' " Smith said.
As for other Florida Hispanics, Navarro admits Romney is in a hole over his immigration stance. She says when he is forced to refer to it, he will have to take a two-pronged approach.
"On immigration policy, I don't think he can change the basic position he took in the primaries," Navarro said. "He doesn't have wiggle room. To keep his base he needs to stay anti-amnesty and pro-border security. That said, he certainly can make some of his answers more nuanced and soften his tone on the issue."
But Navarro says Romney also has to use a second tactic.
"When it comes to Barack Obama, Romney has to attack," she said. "Obama has his own vulnerabilities on the issue. He promised immigration reform in his first term and didn't keep that promise. Deportations have gone up. Hispanics are disillusioned with him on that. I think Romney can get somewhere in trying to neutralize the issue that way."
But most political observers agree that Romney, in dealing with Hispanics, must try to get off immigration quickly and go to his core issue - the economy.
"Romney can chip away at Obama's formidable Hispanic following by focusing on jobs," a FoxNews.com editorial said last week. Unemployment among Hispanics is 10.8 percent, compared with 8. 1 percent for the general population.
"Hispanics have been disproportionately affected by the bad economy," Navarro said. She said Romney's theme for Hispanics needs to be a play on an old Bill Clinton quip: "It's the economy, stupid."
"Romney needs to tell them, 'It's the economy and Hispanics are not stupid,' " Navarro said. In other words, they should not be distracted by the immigration issue.
Should he blend issues?
Gonzalez believes Romney will not be allowed to sidestep his hard stance on immigration, but could try to meld the immigration and economic issues.
"He might take the approach that he wants to make sure that Hispanics who are U.S. citizens have jobs and some of those jobs are being lost to those undocumented immigrants," Gonzalez said. "Maybe he can try to use that to pull enough Puerto Ricans up in the I-4 corridor away from the Democrats to make a difference."
But Smith says that on the economics issue Romney could have a tricky time with many of Florida's non-Cuban Hispanics - most of whom are Democrats - given his personal fortune.
"The politics of Latin America is all about class warfare," he said. "Getting Hispanic middle-class and working-class voters to believe that Romney's economic plans will benefit them, and not simply the rich, could be a tough sell."
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