Wall Street Journal
By Kristina Peterson
June 03, 2018
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise are the lawmakers to beat to replace the departing House Speaker Paul Ryan.
But their status as the frontrunners to succeed Mr. Ryan, who plans to leave office in January, hasn’t quelled chatter on Capitol Hill of who else might become a contender. And a brewing fight over immigration could foment angst within the House GOP, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
Immigration negotiations between Mr. Ryan and the leaders of the centrist and conservative factions of the House GOP are expected to continue this week, ahead of a special two-hour, closed-door meeting Thursday morning where all House Republicans will discuss the issue.
Centrist Republicans, working with House Democrats, are on the brink of securing enough support to force votes on bipartisan immigration legislation through a procedure known as a discharge petition. If a bill were to pass the House backed by Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and a group of several dozen Republicans, conservatives might revolt and force some kind of confrontation with GOP leaders.
“There’s a lot of frustration from conservative members who feel leadership isn’t doing enough to quash this, to stop the momentum the discharge petition has,” said Jason Pye, vice president of legislative affairs for FreedomWorks, a conservative advocacy group. “If it were conservatives who were pushing this, they would be punished.”
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Still, it’s not clear that conservatives would want to push Mr. Ryan out early—and none of the candidates to succeed him has enough support to force him to leave. Many House Republicans are consumed by their own re-election races, with relatively few weeks of legislating in Washington scheduled before the midterms.
The last House leadership race, in 2015, quickly turned chaotic when Mr. McCarthy, of California, withdrew from the contest, leaving no clear frontrunner. A similar scenario is possible after this year’s midterm elections.
Mr. Ryan this year endorsed Mr. McCarthy to succeed him, and Mr. Scalise, of Louisiana, has indicated he would run only if Mr. McCarthy comes up short. But if neither can pin down the votes, others could enter the fray.
Who emerges will depend on a variety of factors, with none bigger than whether the GOP retains the House majority in November.
“A lot of it will depend on the election outcome,” said Rep. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.), who is running for the Senate and won’t serve in the House next year.
Most of those being discussed as potential GOP leadership candidates already flex some power, including Rep. Mark Walker of North Carolina, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, a group of almost 160 House lawmakers; Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon; Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul of Texas; and Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, according to House GOP aides and other Republicans.
The biggest question is who could get the support from the party’s conservative faction and its more centrist wing, as well as those simply frustrated by the constant power struggles.
“It’s really hard to see who that uniting figure would be,” said Mr. Pye, whose group has backed Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, a group of roughly three dozen conservatives. “There’s no one in the conference right now who everybody could seem to live with.”
Mr. Walker, a former Baptist pastor, has blazed a higher profile than some previous leaders of the Republican Study Committee, using the group’s size to negotiate policy concessions during the health-care debate, for example. The RSC tends to be less combative with GOP leaders than the Freedom Caucus, and some Republicans think Mr. Walker might be able to work with all the House GOP’s factions. He hasn’t ruled out seeking a leadership post, telling reporters only that he is focused for now on keeping the House majority.
As head of the Energy and Commerce committee, Mr. Walden is spearheading the panel’s push to pass a wave of legislation to combat the opioid epidemic this month.
He also served two terms as chairman of the House GOP’s campaign arm, helping elect some of the newer Republicans. But that role also forced him to hound Republicans to pay their dues to the committee. And as someone who reliably voted with GOP leaders, Mr. Walden would likely face some resistance from conservatives angling to take a more hardline approach.
Mr. Cole, while respected for his deep policy expertise on spending bills, could encounter some of the same skepticism from conservatives over his pragmatic approach to legislating.
Mr. McCaul helped write a conservative immigration bill supported by many in the House Freedom Caucus, and the Texas delegation carries weight in the House GOP. But it isn’t clear that would be enough to win the support of the Freedom Caucus. Mr. Jordan said he is considering running for a leadership post and could get enough support to block other candidates, forcing them to cut a deal with his group.
Messrs. McCaul, Cole, Walden, and Walker didn’t respond to requests for comment.
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