Politico
By RACHAEL BADE and JOHN BRESNAHAN
June 20, 2018
President Donald Trump told House Republicans to send him an immigration bill dealing with Dreamers and migrant families being separated at the border in a freewheeling closed-door address Tuesday.
But Trump’s call to action does not appear to be enough to push newly crafted Republican immigration legislation over the finish line, according to multiple senior House Republicans and wary conservatives — at least not yet.
And the president said nothing about ending the hugely controversial policy of separating migrant families on the border, an issue that has set off a political firestorm. Republican leaders on Capitol Hill fear that the issue could lead to a backlash at the polls in November.
Yet senior House Republicans learned late Tuesday night that they were far from the 218 votes needed to pass a compromise immigration package after doing a whip check on the bill, according to multiple GOP lawmakers and aides. Some conservatives warned that Trump was not specific enough in his support of the leadership’s bill. Others simply continued to worry about blowback from the far right for supporting anything that could be labeled “amnesty.”
“It did not move the needle at all,” said one top Republican lawmaker who has not decided how he will vote. “He made comments like ‘I’m behind it 1,000 percent,’ but what is ‘it’?”
At the very least, Trump’s message gave GOP leadership the green light to move toward a vote on the legislation that has angered outside anti-immigration groups. Speaker Paul Ryan and his top lieutenants have never been under the impression that the legislation would easily sail through their chamber. Rather, they’ve tried to lower expectations, seeking simply to kill a discharge petition — a method for getting a bill onto the House floor for a vote — being pushed by moderate members who threatened to team with Democrats on immigration.
Still, Republican leaders and Trump could try to build support for the compromise proposal over the next few days. The president has not started making calls on the bill, but conservatives are watching to see if he will. That, they acknowledge, could change things.
During the Tuesday night meeting, Trump told the GOP Conference he would accept either of two competing immigration bills slated for a vote this week: a conservative measure that appeals to immigration hard-liners but repels moderate Republicans, or the negotiated so-called compromise bill that the leadership released last week.
Trump sought to reassure Republicans that he would not undercut them if they voted for the compromise bill, which includes a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers.
“I’m with you 1,000 percent!” Trump told them, later adding, “I will not leave you in the wilderness.”
Trump also said that his daughter Ivanka had approached him about his hugely controversial policy of splitting kids from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border, telling him the images did not look good. He encouraged Republicans to pass a package that includes a fix that keeps families together — even though he could stop the practice at any moment.
“We have to take care of these separations,” he said, as recounted by one source in the room.
But Trump also never indicated that he would back down on the issue, even as he’s come under rising pressure to do so, including from Republicans on Capitol Hill.
That means the policy is likely to continue until Congress puts an end to it — an uncertain outcome, as Republicans already face an uphill battle passing their bill in the House, let alone past the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.
As recently as this past weekend, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise had said he would not whip a GOP bill that didn’t have the president’s backing, but Scalise seemed to think Trump had given them the thumbs-up to forge ahead.
“We’re sure going to be pushing this bill to the president’s desk because he wants this bill and is going to sign it,” the Louisiana Republican said of the so-called compromise package.
It is unclear, however, whether Trump’s words will be enough — especially considering he previously panned the proposal. Conservatives are wary of backing a bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for young undocumented immigrants, something they’ve long considered “amnesty.” Some left the conference meeting thinking Trump would be happy with them if they backed the conservative bill but not the compromise bill.
Still, GOP leaders think the measure could be closer to passage with Trump’s support. The other, more conservative bill is almost certain to fail because moderate Republicans don’t believe it includes a workable bridge to the legal system for Dreamers.
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said Trump may have given some cover for wavering Republicans to back the leadership’s compromise proposal, but he still wouldn’t predict whether it passes.
“I think he was supportive of the compromise bill,” Meadows said of Trump. “He said he was behind it 1,000 percent. And whether that meant he was behind the compromise bill 1,000 percent, or whether he was behind whatever we can pass, either or, you can see it both ways.”
A few hours later, however, Meadows emerged from a House Freedom Caucus meeting acknowledging that many of his members were not there yet on the compromise legislation. While Trump’s support helps, he suggested that members were more concerned about what their constituents back home wanted.
“I think the president is a strong advocate for anything. … At the same time, all of us recognize that we’ve got to go back home and campaign in our districts,” Meadows said. “And whereas the president may have a certain approval rating, ours is many times dictated more on our votes than it is in overall appeal.”
Before delving into immigration, Trump quickly hit on a variety of policy topics at Tuesday’s closed-door session, according to GOP sources. He started the conference meeting telling Republicans to essentially chill out about the tariffs he’d slapped on foreign countries, telling a party of free-traders that it’s worth it.
“It’s gonna work out fine,” the president claimed. “Trade isn’t tricky.”
Trump also talked up the GOP’s successes since he took the White House: boosting military spending, passing legislation on opioids and tax cuts, as well as his talks with North Korea. He said they were doing so much winning.
At one point, Trump knocked South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford, a longtime Trump critic who just lost his primary to a more Trump-friendly Republican.
“Is Mark Sanford here?” he asked as the room grew quiet. “I want to congratulate him on his race.”
When Trump called Sanford a “nasty” guy, the room moaned in disbelief.
While discussing immigration, Trump went through a list of must-haves, including his border wall with Mexico. The president said he also backed a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and told Republicans they had to pass something.
Trump also sought to assure conservatives that he would not double-cross them on the bill. Members of the far right have been wary of supporting the “compromise” bill for fear that Trump will turn on them like he did on a massive spending bill they passed earlier this year.
“I am behind you so much,” he said, later adding, “I am with you all the way” and “I love you people.”
The bill includes $25 billion for the border wall with Mexico, and Trump multiple times praised a trigger mechanism in the bill that would stop the Dreamers’ pathway to citizenship should any of that money be rescinded.
Trump praised Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), who came up with the idea, joking that “I like him more than his brother.” Trump got into a contentious fight with Diaz-Balart’s brother, José, a Telemundo journalist, during the 2016 campaign, telling him to stop talking and “you’re finished.”
Still, Trump seemed OK with the more conservative immigration bill initially pushed by the far right. That could lead conservatives to take his blessing on their bill and then vote against the “compromise” measure.
“I’m always exhausted after I listen to [Trump],” said Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). “I believe he wants a bill to pass. I believe he advocated for the compromise bill. But I believe he wants something to pass. And that’s the most important thing.”
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