Democrats emboldened after elections — but still wary of shutdown talk

Politico

By Heather Caygle and Elana Schor

November 09, 2017

Democrats emboldened after elections — but still wary of shutdown talk

There are two words never to be uttered in the Democratic caucus: government shutdown.

That’s even true after Democrats were emboldened by their sweeping election victories this week.

Democratic leaders are preaching caution to their caucus as they head into year-end funding negotiations with increased political momentum, even as the party’s left flank vows to withhold votes from any must-pass spending bill without a legislative fix for Dreamers.

Courting a shutdown over young undocumented immigrants risks playing into the GOP’s hands with final funding talks still weeks away, senior Democrats warn.

“It has always been the Republicans who shut the government down,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said in an interview. “We’ve got to fix DACA, we’ve got to do a lot of things — but shutting down the government of this country is not a leverage point.”

Democrats know Republicans will almost certainly need their votes in the House and Senate to pass a spending bill when current funding runs out Dec. 8. But Democratic leaders fear that staking out a hardline position now — threatening to withhold votes if certain conditions aren’t met — on an issue as divisive as immigration might only unite Republicans around a much more conservative bill.

And Democrats keenly remember the blowback faced by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and other conservatives who forced a shutdown in 2013 over repealing Obamacare. Democrats are particularly wary of being seen as obstructionists with the midterms less than a year away and the House – and maybe even the Senate — on the line.

Still, that hasn’t stopped some in the minority from drawing a line in the sand now.

Four liberal Senate Democrats weighing a challenge to President Donald Trump in 2020 have already declared they’ll vote against any funding bill that doesn’t include protections for undocumented immigrants enrolled in the the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

More than two dozen House Democrats similarly used a Wednesday op-ed piece to vow they would oppose any year-end deal that doesn’t address Dreamers.

Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairwoman Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M) and members of House Democratic leadership notably did not sign the opinion piece.

Lujan Grisham told POLITICO she supports the overall idea — “I’m not going home for the holidays without a Dreamer fix,” she said — but didn’t sign on because of the timing of the op-ed and the language used.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has privately cautioned against using the words “government shutdown” and so far, most members, even those publicly vowing to withhold their votes, are falling in line. Aside from the public relations nightmare of being deemed responsible if the government did actually shut down, Democratic leaders see the strategy as a last resort.

It’s not that they won’t withhold votes for a funding deal if needed, aides say. But they think telegraphing that publicly to Republicans right now does them no good.

Even Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), one of the prominent liberals who last week promised to oppose any funding bill that didn’t include help for Dreamers, made clear Wednesday that his statement wasn’t designed to bring fellow Democrats closer to a shutdown standoff.

Protections for Dreamers “should be at the top of our priority list,” Booker said in an interview, but “I would not put it into this idea of shutting down the government. That’s something that Republicans do and have done.”

Republicans, meanwhile, remain divided about how to handle Dreamers at risk for deportation as soon as March if Trump follows through with plans to end the DACA program.

Conservatives have largely put demands for a border wall on the backburner but are likely to call for other changes that are equally unacceptable to Democrats including proposals to mandate a worker verification system known as E-Verify and reduce chain migration.

Further complicating talks, President Donald Trump told GOP senators last week he doesn’t support a DACA fix in a year-end spending bill after agreeing to that with Democratic leaders in September.

Even so, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters Wednesday that staff-level funding talks among leaders in both parties “have been going along quite well, and were before this election, and I think will continue to.”

While Trump has pushed publicly for a down payment on the border wall as part of the next government spending package, Schumer declared that there is “very little enthusiasm for the wall on both sides of the aisle.”

Despite Schumer’s optimism, top appropriators now think negotiations over a long-term spending bill could go weeks — if not months — past the current December deadline. As Republicans dig in on taxes, discussions about topline funding levels have fallen weeks behind schedule and negotiators on both sides think they’ll need a stopgap extension in December.

Democrats say they have the leverage now more than ever before after decisive victories up and down the ticket in races across the country Tuesday night. Democrats are using the wins to implore vulnerable Republicans to join them in pressuring GOP leaders to begin negotiations in earnest on a Dreamer deal.

“Yesterday we heard something very clear: Trump and Trumpism is a loser,” Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told reporters Wednesday. “If you are a Republican and you are in a swing district and you want to have any fighting chance next year, join us in helping us pass the Dream Act.”

Washington Sen. Patty Murray, No. 3 in Democratic leadership, noted that the funding bill doesn’t necessarily have to be the vehicle for a deal that helps Dreamers.

“There’s a number of ways to get it done between now and the end of the year,” Murray said in a brief interview, “and we expect [Republicans] to do it.”

Republicans close to the spending process are eyeing a months-long extension, possibly into February, but Democrats have said they’ll agree to a one-week stopgap in December at most. Defense hawks, both in Congress and the administration, have strongly warned against any stopgap spending bill that goes past December, which they say would be detrimental for military operations planning.

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