WALL STREET JOURNAL (Opinion)
By Gerald Seib
January 15, 2013
One week away from President Barack Obama's second inaugural, the logical question to ask is: What's it all about?
The next phase in the bitter between the White House and congressional Republicans began in earnest Monday, with President Obama and GOP leaders digging in over spending and the debt limit. Jerry Seib has details on The News Hub. Photo: Getty Images.
Not the inauguration itself, which will be a somewhat less ebullient version of the inaugural four years ago. Rather, what will the second Obama term be all about? What is the legacy the president will be striving for in the next four years?
The question arises at the outset of every president's second term, but it is particularly pertinent now. Most of the first Obama term was spent dealing with an economic mess that sucked a lot of oxygen away from everything else. What was left was mostly devoted to a health-care overhaul, and history will judge whether that was a wise way to invest limited political resources.
At the moment, the president is stuck in a "Groundhog Day" loop of fiscal crisis, followed by rancorous partisan debate, followed by half-solution, before repeating. There isn't yet much sign he can break out of that pattern, and a Monday news conference, in which he scolded Republicans about the dangers of flirting with a breach of the debt ceiling, didn't suggest tensions with Congress are subsiding soon.
Beyond that, Iran's nuclear program also hangs ominously over the second term. But conversations with those in the Obama world suggest that if the president can shake those problems, he has three big chances for crafting a broader legacy: energy independence, an immigration overhaul and a new assault on income inequality. Consider them in turn:
Energy independence. This is the most tantalizing, most surprising possibility for a second Obama term.
The combination of a shale-oil boom and the proliferation of natural-gas production makes possible something that seemed unachievable a decade ago: for the U.S. to achieve something close to energy self-sufficiency while also reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.
Already the U.S. is on its way to replacing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020, according to the International Energy Agency. At the same time, natural gas accounted for more than 30% of U.S. electricity generation through the first two-thirds of 2012, up from 24% a year earlier. That pushed down American carbon-dioxide emissions.
So the emerging picture is of an energy future in which higher oil production and improved auto-fuel efficiency greatly reduce dependence on Middle East oil, while broader use of natural gas, other alternative energy sources and energy efficiency also reduce the carbon footprint.
Critics say these options are opening up despite Obama energy policies so far, not because of them. Still, the potential for an entirely different approach to energy lies ahead. "Of all the things that will happen, it will be the biggest game-changer, domestically and internationally," says Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago and Mr. Obama's first White House chief of staff. "Its effects will be felt for decades going forward."
Immigration overhaul. This has become the most obvious play, in the wake of an election in which Mr. Obama swamped the Republicans in the contest for the growing Hispanic vote. The election's outcome not only showed how the changing face of the nation has strengthened the social and economic case for changing the way the U.S. handles immigrants, but also smoothed the political path for an overhaul by convincing Republicans as well as Democrats of the political imperative of finding a way to yes on immigration changes.
Still, the political imperative hasn't made success inevitable. Even if both parties agree on the big idea, they are likely to disagree on the biggest detail: whether an immigration bill should provide illegal immigrants already here a working path toward citizenship, or merely a path toward some kind of lesser legal status. This isn't a small question.
Income inequality. Obscured by the 2007-2009 recession was one of the most vexing characteristics of the modern economy: A growing gap between those at the top of the income scale and those below. There's little doubt Mr. Obama would like to do something about it.
The problem is that policy prescriptions are few. But one would be a broad overhaul of the American tax code to make it more efficient and more progressive at the same time, through a combination of flatter tax rates for all and fewer exemptions and loopholes at the top. Few would deny the virtue of such tax changes; most leaders of both parties say they want it. The problem is working through the political minefield of defying special interests to get there.
Here's why the next few months matter so much: How much political goodwill is available will depend on how the two parties work through the immediate debt-ceiling and spending debates. For better or worse, the table is being set now.
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