By Allan Wernick
January 24, 2013
As expected, President Obama
confirmed his support for immigration reform in his
inaugural address. It was one of the few specific issues
mentioned by the President in setting the program for his
coming four years in office. In the last few weeks, some
pundits have argued that the debate over debt and budget
issues or gun control will sidetrack the President from his
commitment to immigrants. That analysis ignores the
expectations of Latino voters and their allies. Obama and
both parties have no choice but to make immigration reform a
priority in the coming year. The doubters are wrong. I am
more optimistic than ever that we will see reform this year.
To understand why, lets take a look at what some key players
on the immigration reform debate have been saying and doing
this year:
Charles Schumer — New York
Democrat Chuck Schumer will pay a key role in shaping the
debate. That’s good news for immigrant rights’ advocates. As
chair of the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration, Border
Security and Citizenship, Sen. Schumer is responsible for
leading any reform bill through the Senate. Particularly
experienced in dealing with immigration legislation, many
credit then-Congressman Schumer with the deal-making that
led to passage of the last legalization legislation, the
Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. More than 3
million undocumented immigrants were legalized under that
act. Schumer is already on the move, organizing his
colleagues for the fight to come.
Marco Rubio — Florida Sen.
Marco Rubio’s call last spring for a Dream Act for
undocumented youth was an historic turning point in the
immigration reform debate. A rising Conservative Republican
star, Rubio’s proposal forced Obama’s hand. The President’s
decision to grant Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals
helped him consolidate the Latino vote, a key factor in his
victory. Recently, Rubio's position on legalization has
moved from supporting just legal status to agreeing that
legalization must include a path to citizenship for
undocumented immigrants. Though many others in the
Republican party have yet to adopt the “path to citizenship”
position, it will hard for Republican leaders to buck one of
their few Latino leaders. Rubio is a key player in the
Republicans’ plan to reach out to Latinos. As a possible
2016 Presidential candidate, Rubio can’t afford to anger
Latinos.
Luis Gutierrez — Chicago
Congressman Luis Gutierrez is the Democratic Party’s
conscience on immigration issues. Gutierrez is a tenacious
advocate for immigrants’ rights. Though not a member of the
party’s leadership, his impact on the debate will be greater
than might be expected from his position alone. He has a
long history of advocating for immigrants’ rights and he
stood up to the Obama administration’s early resistance to
the DACA program. Of Puerto Rican ancestry, Gutierrez
recognized early in his career the importance of reaching
out to his Mexican constituents. To help lead the
immigration reform debate in the House of Representatives,
Gutierrez is giving up his senior position on the
prestigious House Financial Services Committee to join the
Subcommittee on Immigration Policy and Enforcement. House
Democratic leaders will look to Gutierrez to speak for
immigrants about which compromises are acceptable to Latinos
and which are not. He has closer ties to the immigrants’
rights movement than any other federal elected official.
Paul Ryan — Former Vice
Presidential candidate Paul Ryan has no intention of letting
Marco Rubio steal the show on immigration reform. A
contender with Rubio for a possible 2016 run for the White
House, Ryan reportedly reached out to House colleague
Gutierrez regarding possible Tea Party support for a
generous immigration bill. Ryan and any other Republicans
seeking a national leadership role must be sensitive to the
growing Latino vote. Unlike many of his Republican
colleagues, Ryan is not a reformed immigrant-basher,
reversing his position only after Romney and his defeat in
November. Compared to other Republicans, he has been
relatively immigrant-friendly much of his career.
John Boehner and Harry Reid
— Boehner, as Speaker of the House, and Reid, as Senate
Majority Leader, together need to make the system work for
immigration reform to become law. Within days of President
Obama’s reelection, Republican Boehner made clear his
intention to seek common ground with Obama on the issue. As
a leading Republican, Boehner knows that his party’s future
is bleak if it maintains a restrictionist stance. Reid, as
his party's Senate leader, will do what it takes to get
Obama and Schumer’s program through the Senate. Reid must
also keep his own constituents in mind. In his home state of
Nevada, Latinos made up 18% of voters in 2012, up from 15%
in 2008, a number that will surely grow going forward.
Immigration reform will
happen this year. Count on it.
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