Newsweek (Opinion)
By William Galston
April 1, 2016
You’d
never guess it from the headlines during this year’s presidential
campaign, but strong majorities of Americans—Democrats, Independents and
Republicans alike—favor immigration reforms
that would allow immigrants living in the United States illegally to
qualify for citizenship if they meet certain requirements.
That’s
the finding of a massive rolling survey of more than 42,000 Americans
conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute released on March
29.
Overall,
62 percent of Americans favor a path to citizenship for immigrants
living here illegally, and an additional 15 percent support permanent legal residency without the option of citizenship.
Only 19 percent favor a policy of identifying and deporting them.
There
are partisan differences, of course. 72 percent of Democrats support a
path to citizenship for immigrants living here illegally, compared to 62
percent of Independents and 52 percent
of Republicans. Conversely, 30 percent of Republicans opt for
identifying and deporting them, compared to 19 percent of Independents
and only 11 percent of Democrats.
Still, support is strong across the board. For example, 54 percent of white evangelical Christians favor a path to citizenship.
There’s
little doubt, however, that immigration—legal as well as illegal—has
triggered deep anxieties in substantial portions of the U.S. population.
The PRRI survey also finds that while
half of all Americans believe that the growing number of newcomers from
other countries “strengthens American society,” fully one-third say
that it “threatens American customs and values.”
Age
matters: Americans over age 50 are especially likely to embrace the
more negative view. And partisanship matters even more: 53 percent of
Republicans see immigration as a cultural threat,
compared to 33 percent of Independents and 24 percent of Democrats.
In
a possible harbinger of the general election this fall, views on
immigration vary widely by geographical location. The West and Northeast
are more positive than negative about the impact
of immigration; the reverse is true for the South and Midwest.
Majorities
of Americans in 21 states believe that immigration is a net plus for
the country, as do pluralities in 20 additional states. Pluralities in 6
states endorse a negative view of
immigration, while 3 states are statistically tied.
Ambivalence
is especially notable in the Midwest, the region that may prove pivotal
in November. While no Midwest state espouses a predominantly negative
view of immigration’s impact, only
Illinois gives the affirmative view an outright majority.
Michigan
is split 44 to 38 percent; Minnesota, 45-38; Wisconsin, 46-37; and
Ohio, always a key battlefield, by 45 to 40 percent. Democrats may face a
hard fight to retain the Midwestern Electoral
College advantage they have enjoyed in recent national elections.
On
the other hand, the positive view of immigration enjoys majority
support in crucial swing states such as Colorado and Florida and a
near-majority of 49 percent in Virginia. Support for
this view is strong even in long-time red states such as Arizona (55
percent), Texas (52 percent) and Georgia (50 percent).
So
Republicans may have a fight on their hands in states they have long
taken for granted, especially if immigration becomes a more prominent
issue in the campaign.
The
PRRI survey does not allow us to assess the intensity of feeling on
immigration. To judge from the tone of the campaign thus far, it appears
to be a voting issue for substantial numbers
of Republicans.
It remains to be seen whether the Republican contest will trigger a counter-mobilization of first and second-generation Americans who view a restrictive immigration policy as a personal affront.
Such a counter-mobilization effort could mean that Republican candidates who are eager to discuss their opposition to comprehensive immigration reform may ultimately regret that strategy come November.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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