Fact-Checking the Figures on ‘Anchor Babies’

Wall Street Journal

By Jo Craven McGinty

September 11, 2015

Fact-Checking the Figures on ‘Anchor Babies’

How many “anchor babies” are born in the U.S. each year?

The incendiary term—referring to the American children of illegal immigrants—has gained prominence thanks to presidential candidates such as Donald Trump. His campaign manager puts the number at 400,000—but much like the candidate, the figure is larger than life.

It is the high end of a range the Center for Immigration Studies generated using data that is now 13 years old. While the range, of 300,000 to 400,000, may have been about right at the time, more recent assessments put the number at 300,000 or less.

“It’s certainly an older estimate,” said Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies. “The rates of birth have gone down.”

Still, the numbers disturb Mr. Trump and others who favor cracking down on illegal immigration because as citizens, these children automatically get access to education, health care and other services. At age 21, they can also apply for legal status for their undocumented parents and siblings, which is why critics refer to them as anchors.

For those and other reasons, different groups have tried to pin down their number. The Migration Policy Institute, the Center for Migration Studies and the Pew Research Center, in addition to the Center for Immigration Studies, have all published estimates.

The figures peaked in 2007-10. In that span, the Migration Policy Institute put the high number at 321,000; the Center for Migration Study pegged it at just under 350,000; and the Pew Research Center put it at 370,000.

The numbers vary because each group uses a slightly different approach.

Mr. Camarota arrived at his estimate for the Center for Immigration Studies by using 2002 birth records from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The records included the mother’s age, race, birthplace, education and marital status. Mr. Camarota used profiles of undocumented immigrants to deduce which of the births were likely to women who had entered the country without permission.

The other three groups rely on the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, a questionnaire that asks about the country of birth, citizenship and year of entry for each household member.

The researchers begin by estimating how many immigrants are in the country illegally, as The Numbers described in March. With this baseline figure in hand, they winnow the ACS records down to a list of households with immigrants they believe are likely to be undocumented.

“First we take the citizens out,” said Randy Capps, director of research for U.S. Programs at the Migration Policy Institute. “Then we use logical edits to remove certain people that definitely fit the criteria for being here with permission.” For example, foreign students, police officers, people in licensed professions and government employees are removed.

The logical edits made by each of the three organizations are similar, but there are some differences in their techniques. For example, the Migration Policy Institute uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation, which is also conducted by the Census Bureau, to inform its edits.

The SIPP is conducted less frequently than the ACS, and the sample size is much smaller, but the survey asks specifically whether foreign-born respondents are in the country legally. The Migration Policy Institute uses the characteristics of those who aren’t in the country legally to develop probabilities that people with similar characteristics in the ACS are also undocumented.

“There is a higher probability of being undocumented if you’re Mexican or don’t have health coverage or if you work in agriculture,” Mr. Capps said. “There are a number of factors, but national origin, length of time in the country and jobs are the main ones.”

After each group completes its edits, what remains are the detailed ACS records of households with immigrants who the demographers believe are in the country illegally. From that list, they tally the number of U.S.-born children.

“For every unauthorized person we’ve flagged, we go into the household and ask are the parents unauthorized? Was their child born in the U.S.?” said Robert Warren, a visiting fellow at the Center for Migration Studies. “If the answers are yes, that’s one.”

Since the recession, the total number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally has decreased, dropping from about 12.2 million in 2007 to around 11.2 or 11.3 million in 2009, according to Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer with the Pew Research Center. That number has remained relatively constant since, but births have continued to drop—as have all U.S. births.

“The entire U.S. population has had the opposite of a baby boom,” Mr. Capps said. “There has been a baby drop since the recession.”

In 2013—the latest year for which it has an estimate—the Migration Policy Institute said 253,000 children were born to undocumented immigrants. The Center for Migration Studies put the number at 300,000 that year. Mr. Passel estimated that it was 295,000. And Mr. Camarota said he hasn’t repeated his analysis.

So, are there 400,000 children born in the U.S. to unauthorized immigrants each year? Not according to the most recent estimates.

Let’s put that baby to rest.

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