Will Pope Francis Sway the Iowa Caucuses?

USA Today

By Kevin Hardy

September 22, 2015

Will Pope Francis sway the Iowa caucuses? 

When he converted to Catholicism in 2008, Micheal Davenport went “whole hog,” adopting a conservative political ideology predominantly ruled by his and the church’s anti-abortion viewpoint.

Abortion fueled his political thinking until a couple of years ago, when the newly minted leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, started to gain attention for emphasizing other issues: care for the poor, income inequality and immigration. Davenport started to view abortion as a wedge issue and was unable to reconcile his personal politics with the church’s calls for social justice.

“I don’t know how I could be right wing on anything else other than the issue of abortion,” he said. “There are all these other calls to Christianity when we’re focusing on these negative wedge issues.”

Pope Francis’ unique blend of views, now known across the world, will dominate domestic news cycles this week as he makes his first papal visit to the United States. Francis, who has become a beloved figure both inside and outside the church, is slated to travel to New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., where he will become the first pontiff to address a joint session of Congress.

The Catholic vote has long been a bellwether in American presidential elections, and the pope's visit comes as the 2016 race is heating up in Iowa, which casts the first-in-the-nation votes for president. While no one knows exactly what the pope will do or say during his visit, pope watchers expect political implications.

Though membership is on the decline, Catholics still make up the nation's single largest denomination. And about a quarter of likely Democratic and Republican caucusgoers are Catholic, a late August Iowa Poll found.

Church leaders note Francis has not reversed or altered any fundamental church teachings. But many conservative and liberal Catholics agree this pope has embraced a markedly new tone of tolerance with gays and lesbians, divorced Catholics and repentant women who have had abortions. Known for eschewing the traditional luxuries of his office, Francis has steered the church to be more focused on the poor and marginalized, and has urged priests to be more pastoral.

And in June, he made international news for his encyclical that criticized climate change deniers and called for sweeping shifts in political circles and individual behaviors to protect the environment — a call being echoed by priests and bishops in Iowa and across the country.

U.S. Rep. Steve King, a practicing Catholic, said the pope’s more inclusive tone is a good thing on balance. But he worries the pope may confuse some Catholics by focusing on social justice issues and climate change and downplaying the church's stances on marriage and abortion.

“It could muddy the waters,” he said.

King, a Republican from Kiron, believes devout Catholics should vote for Republicans because of the party’s opposition to abortion.

“Defending innocent human unborn life is the definitive issue,” he said. “It needs to remain the definitive issue.”

It would be difficult for the pope to promote a seemingly liberal agenda of social justice, care for immigrants and income equality, King said, while also remaining a staunch protector of the unborn and a defender of traditional marriage.

“I’ve been in this arena a long time, and we have not found a way to blend those competing issues together into a common philosophy,” the seven-term congressman said. “You’re ether a conservative, or you’re a liberal. I think that’s very hard to do.”

But that political tension is nothing new for many Catholics.

Church teaching on abortion and marriage tends to side with Republican candidates, while church stances on the death penalty, climate change and immigration seem more in line with Democratic candidates.

That has often left Catholics feeling politically homeless, said Des Moines Bishop Richard Pates.

Francis’ focus could further complicate party affiliation as American bishops, including Pates, work to put more attention on income inequality and the state of the environment.

“I think he has certainly stirred the pot a little bit. And he’s generated more intense discussion and called for a certain authenticity in politics,” Pates said.

Francis has urged lawmakers worldwide to focus less on politics and more on issues of human dignity. Pates expects the pope to call for altruism in politics during his address to Congress on Thursday.

“Are they addressing the issues with an open and honest candor? Or are they trying to make them wedge issues?” Pates said.

Pates said the pope will push politicians on both sides of the aisle to discuss a litany of issues, not just their own narrow political agendas. Pates is urging Iowa’s faithful to inject all matters of Catholic teaching into the caucus fray, whether it’s posing questions about immigration and climate change to Republican candidates or pressing Democratic candidates on abortion and marriage.

“Here in Iowa, we espouse our people to go to both parties and raise these issues in a way that will get them discussed and explored,” the bishop said. “(Pope Francis) wants action. I think the action that is going to have the most impact is going to be that which helps determine the policies of our government toward these issues.”

Pope challenges thinking of both sides

In recent years, the Catholic Church’s American political narrative has been narrowly framed by “culture war” issues of abortion and gay marriage, said John Gehring, the Catholic program director for Faith in Public Life, a public advocacy group in Washington, D.C.

Gehring, author of The Francis Effect: A Radical Pope’s Challenge to the American Catholic Church, believes Francis’ tone has moved the church beyond that narrative. But that doesn’t mean the pope is necessarily politically liberal, either.

“The pope is not a Democrat or a Republican. And he will challenge the left and the right in different ways,” Gehring said. “I think there’s a temptation for Catholics to pick and choose what reinforces your existing political narrative. But I think this pope is asking all us voters to see how these issues are connected.”

With the ear of young people and sky-high approval ratings among Catholics, Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated, this pope’s political pull may transcend his own flock. A March survey from the Pew Research Center found 7 in 10 Americans viewed Francis favorably. The pope enjoyed a 90% favorability rating among U.S. Catholics,  and even a 68% approval rating among the religiously unaffiliated.

“This could potentially be a transformational moment in the life of not only the Catholic Church, but in terms of the political conversation,” Gehring said. “I think everyone’s going to be watching this pope."

To the pope, care for immigrants and aiding the poor are just as much about the dignity of human life as the issue of abortion, he said.

“He will challenge all of us to remember that politics isn’t a game," Gehring said. "It’s fundamentally about moral issues.”

U.S. bishops will likely echo much of the pope's message in November, when they release a voter's guide of sorts outlining important church issues in the political realm, said Miami Archbishop Thomas Wenski, chairman of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops' committee on domestic justice and human development.

Wenski said Catholics are expected to follow all of Francis' teachings, and his encyclical on the environment doesn't give Catholics permission to disregard other church stances such as its opposition to abortion.

"That’s the whole thing that we’re trying to address in our bishops statement," Wenski said. "You don’t leave your principles, you don’t leave your moral values outside the voting booth."

Wenski is intimately familiar with two of the 2016 presidential contenders. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio are active Catholics within his archdiocese. He expects the pope to challenge them along with the four other Catholics seeking the presidency:

"I think the church’s issues on a wide variety of things have challenged politicians and hopefully will continue to challenge and stretch them," Wenski said. "We want our public servants to listen to their better angels. Therefore, we want them to be more committed to their faith and not less committed to their faith."

Catholic vote often mirrors total vote

Neither major party owns the Catholic vote in America. In fact, neither party has since the 1960 election of President John F. Kennedy, the first and only Catholic in the White House.

Since then, the Catholic vote has split somewhat evenly between the parties, said Mark Gray, a senior research associate at Georgetown University's Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate.

White Catholics tend to side more with conservatives, while Hispanic Catholics tend to vote with liberals, Gray said. But generally speaking, as the Catholic vote goes, so goes the nation's popular vote. The only time in recent history that Catholics have gotten it wrong came in 2000, when they picked popular vote winner Al Gore, who lost in the Electoral College, Gray said.

"Catholics are the one sub-group that’s always in play. And it's notorious for always going with the eventual winner," Gray said. "But that’s because it's such a large component of the overall vote, about a quarter of the overall vote."

Still, Catholics in both parties claim to own Catholic issues.

Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and a Catholic, said Pope Francis' popularity is good for Democrats because the party is in sync with much of his message.

"I think when you bring up climate change, social justice and immigration issues, those are all issues that Democrats have been talking about a lot,” she said. “I think it will make people realize that we are talking about those issues, and in contrast the Republicans have very tough views on those issues. On climate change, they don’t even think it exists.”

And those issues are nothing new for the church, which has long cared for the poor and called for conservation of the planet, McGuire said.

"We’ve always been for these kind of issues. It's just that he's highlighting them from a very strong leadership position," she said. "It has brought back our true teachings, our foundation, rather than it being about a couple issues."

Iowa Sen. Rick Bertrand, a Catholic from Sioux City, said it's never been clearer which way Catholics should be voting.

"A Catholic should not be supporting a Democratic candidate," he says. "There's a clear difference on life and family values, the traditional family. I'm talking about divorce. I'm talking about two-parent homes. ...Those are things that I’m not hearing from this pope, and it does confuse the electorate."

Bertrand says he believes liberalism has crept into the faith of many Catholic priests, bishops and the papacy.

"Most Catholics I believe in Iowa understand where the Holy Father is coming from. The Holy Father is a product of his environment," Bertrand said. "Coming from South America, he’s about social justice … he’s a socialist."

He, like other conservative Catholics, thinks the pope needs to press more on social issues such as marriage and abortion.

"I just wish that the Holy Father would focus on tightening our traditional values and making it easier to be a Catholic," Bertrand said. "I just think right now our country and our state is questioning our moral fabric. And I think doing so many of these things in the guise of inclusiveness takes people off the hook."

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