Speech to Latino Leaders Could be Pivotal for Romney, and GOP

Washington Post (Article by Felicia Sonmez):  Senate Republicans have said they are waiting. So, too, has the Republican National Committee.

When Mitt Romney takes the stage at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference here Thursday afternoon, they could get their answer to the question: What course will the Republican Party chart on immigration policy?

A fissure has developed within the GOP on the issue in the wake of President Obama'’s order last week to halt the deportations of some who were brought to the United States illegally as children. The White House move has been hailed by the left, and Republicans have struggled to respond.

The immigration issue could well shape the November election. The U.S. Hispanic population has boomed by 15 million over the last decade, with many battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia among them – home to some of the largest increases. In 2008, Obama won 67 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 31 percent.

Over the past week, Romney has sought not to comment on the issue of immigration reform in general and on the merits of Obama’'s order in particular. The presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign on Wednesday repeatedly steered reporters’ questions on immigration back to the issue of the economy, with economic adviser Lanhee Chen contending that Obama'’s policies have “failed the Latino community.”

The choice facing Romney in his Thursday afternoon speech: Whether to remain mum on the issue, or present his own, more-detailed view on immigration reform.

Romney'’s address, slated for noon Eastern time, comes on the first day of the annual, 1,000-person NALEO summit. Obama addresses the group on Friday. Among the other expected speakers are Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), considered a strong contender to join Romney on the GOP ticket; White House Domestic Policy Council Director Cecilia Muñoz; Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R); and Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who has criticized his party'’s rhetoric in the past, and has contended in recent days that Romney should “broaden” his message on immigration.

If Romney renews his “stay mum” approach, he would be doubling down on his effort to focus on the economy. But that approach would also risk ceding to Obama a large chunk of the Hispanic electorate that is supportive of measures such as the DREAM Act, on which Obama,’s order was partially based.

If Romney instead sketches out his own agenda on immigration reform, the risk rests in the details.

Will he back a DREAM Act-style proposal aimed at halting some deportations, such as the order by Obama or the legislation being drafted (until this week) by Rubio? If so, will he back a path to citizenship or temporary work visas for those who would benefit from the move?

Will he insist on a secure-the-border-first approach, as is the current position of many Republicans on Capitol Hill? Will he continue to support the right of Arizona to draft its own anti-illegal immigration measure, which has been criticized by some as opening the door to racial profiling? And will he perhaps seek to out-maneuver Obama in other ways on immigration reform?

And then, of course, there is the political calculus. When Obama completed his “evolution” last month and publicly embraced same-sex marriage, the move represented a step toward the Democratic base.

If Romney shifts course on immigration, he will be making a step toward wooing Hispanic voters – but will also face the daunting task of bringing his party along with him.